Men's College Basketball Bets: Kansas-Oklahoma, Duke-Florida State
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No. 7 Kansas heads to Norman, Okla., in hopes of extending its winning streak to three games. Oklahoma has struggled in conference play but defend its home court well, setting up what should be a good Big 12 matchup Tuesday night.
In Tallahassee, Fla., the Seminoles play host to the No. 6 Blue Devils.
Kevin Sweeney joins me to make our college hoops bets for Tuesday night.
Let’s do that basketball.
Season record: 21-19
Guest pickers: 14-9-1
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Ed Zurga/AP
No. 7 Kansas (14-2, 3-1 Big 12) vs. Oklahoma (12-5, 2-3)
Time: 7 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Kansas -4 (-110) | Oklahoma +4 (-118)
Over/Under: Under 143.5 (-118) | Over 143.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Kansas (-188) | Oklahoma (+138)
The Jayhawks won their last two home games against then-No. 15 Iowa State and a very good West Virginia team. Those back-to-back wins followed an eight-point road loss to Texas Tech. KU returned to its usual offensive form against the Mountaineers, scoring 85 points after totaling just 128 in its previous two games.
Kansas has the 13th-highest scoring offense (81.9 PPG) in the nation. Senior guard Ochai Agbaji accounts for about a quarter of the team’s scoring—he averages 20.6 PPG, the 13th-best mark among DI scorers. The Jayhawks only have one other player (Christian Braun) averaging double-digit points. They spread the ball around well, averaging 16.7 assists per game. Kansas allows 66.3 PPG, which ranks 113th, but KenPom.com tells the story of the 33rd-best unit in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The start of conference play has not been kind to the Sooners.
OU lost on the road to then-No. 1 Baylor, then-No. 21 Texas and TCU. Those games account for three of the Sooners’ five losses. They’ve only lost once at home—an overtime defeat against Butler in early December.
Oklahoma doesn’t have an elite offense (72.4 PPG) and it’s only struggled more against Big 12 competition. The Sooners were held under 60 points in their last two games—both losses. Tanner Gross, the team’s leading scorer at 13.1 PPG, is averaging 9.5 PPG in four conference games and he fouled out against Baylor. Having the 29th-best defense (62.1 PPG) helps matters, but only so much.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Kansas -4
The Jayhawks have the best player on the floor in Agbaji, who can help the Jayhawks break down OU’s defense and survive a difficult road environment. The Sooners are a much better team at home than on the road—they have two top-15 wins in Norman against Florida and Iowa State—but their two-game skid isn’t going to end against Kansas. If Oklahoma does keep it close, I have confidence in KU’s ability to close the Sooners out in the second half.
Over/Under Pick: Under 143.5
Oklahoma’s scoring concerns should be somewhat better at home, but a matchup against Kansas isn’t exactly a get-right game offensively. The Sooners should expect to be back on the right side of 60 points, though, and they have the horses to keep the Jayhawks from getting into the high 70s or 80s that would be needed to send this game over.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Oklahoma +4
The Big 12 is a league known for being extremely tough to win on the road in, as evidenced by five straight years in the top-third of KenPom’s home win% stat until last year’s COVID-impacted home courts. This year, the home-court edge has returned, with the home team winning in 16 of 23 Big 12 games so far. I don’t want to go against that number, especially with how scrappy Oklahoma has been under first-year head coach Porter Moser. Moser will make sure this game is played at his pace and force Bill Self’s team to beat him in the halfcourt. Expect the Sooners to keep the score down, cover and potentially even win outright.
Over/Under Pick: Under 143.5
Again, I expect the tempo of this game to be quite slow. Oklahoma knows it can’t win a shootout with Kansas, even if Remy Martin misses a third straight game. Add in that Oklahoma has been ice-cold shooting the ball lately, and I’m just not sure the Sooners even get to 65. It’s going to have to be a rock fight for the Sooners to find a way. Moser has plenty of experience coaching games like this from his time in the Missouri Valley at Loyola, and he’ll have a good plan in place to keep KU out of transition.
Gerry Broome/AP
No. 6 Duke (14-2, 4-1 ACC) vs. Florida State (10-5, 4-2)
Time: 9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Spread: Duke -5 (-118) | Florida State +5 (-118)
Over/Under: Under 145 (-110) | Over 145 (-118)
Moneyline: Duke (-250) | Florida State (+170)
The Blue Devils did not allow their home loss to Miami a few weeks ago knock them off track. Duke followed that loss with double-digit victories against Wake Forest and NC State. The team’s top-10 scoring offense (83.1 PPG) is fueled by its 17.4 assists per game, the 13th-most in DI. Naturally, freshman phenom Paolo Banchero and junior Wendell Moore Jr. are at the forefront of that offense. Banchero leads the team in scoring (17.9 PPG) and rebounding (7.4 RPG) while Moore is second in scoring (15.4 PPG) and leads the team in assists (4.8 APG).
Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s squad comes in at No. 85 in scoring defense (65.2 PPG), though it ranks 19th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric.
With such a high-powered offense and a stout overall defense, Duke maintains the 10th-best scoring margin (+17.9 PPG).
The Seminoles enter Tuesday winners of three in a row, including a narrow victory over Miami, which was fresh off its marquee win over Duke. FSU has played in close games all season—seven of its 15 games have been decided by five points or fewer.
Florida State is 5-2 in those games.
Sophomore transfer Caleb Mills leads the team in scoring (13.8 PPG), assists (2.9 APG) and steals (1.9 SPG). Creating turnovers is a big part of the Seminoles’ defensive identity—they rank 14th in the nation in steals at 9.7 per game. Offense is not FSU’s strength. The team has been able to run up the score against lesser opponents—105 against Penn, 97 against Lipscomb—but that number falls against ACC teams. Florida State is 0-1 against top-25 teams this season, having lost to then-No. 2 Purdue, 93-65.
Kyle Wood’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Duke -5
The Seminoles’ only game against a ranked team this season did not end well. Granted, that game was on the road against Purdue, not at home where Florida State is typically stout. But it's not a good omen for Leonard Hamilton’s team against a Duke team that has beaten opponents 20, 30, even 40 points this season. I’m not predicting a blowout of massive proportions, but Coach K and Co. should take care of the business at the Donald R. Tucker Center with relative ease, which makes picking the Blue Devils to cover an easy choice.
Over/Under Pick: Under 145
Duke’s high offensive outputs have slowed down since ACC play began, though it did hang 88 points on NC State last time out. FSU’s success this season is predicated on strong defense, which should prevent the Blue Devils from running up a score into the 80s. It’s unlikely the Seminoles will find much success scoring the ball against Duke, which has a size advantage in this matchup.
Kevin Sweeney’s Bets:
Moneyline or Spread Pick: Duke -5
I never like backing road favorites to cover a number like this, but Duke is just so overwhelmingly more talented than FSU that I think they find a way to get there. The way Miami beat Duke was having three experienced guards who were fearless attacking off the bounce and crafty on defense to force turnovers. FSU doesn’t have that type of personnel. Duke’s long, athletic guards will cause problems for a Seminole team without a true point guard, forcing turnovers and lifting the Blue Devils to a double-digit victory.
Over/Under Pick: Under 145
Florida State’s defense has been much better at home than on the road, which could be the result of being a younger, less experienced team than what Leonard Hamilton has had in recent years in Tallahassee. I expect an energized Seminole performance on the defensive end to try to keep them in the game, but I’m just not sure FSU will score enough against a Duke defense with elite athleticism and positional size. Mark Williams has been an eraser all year at the rim, and that should cause significant problems for an FSU team that isn’t a great jump-shooting team.
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