|Boise State's 2013 schedule|
The Mountain West title game is Dec. 7.
Can Alabama make a run at a third straight national title? Can Ohio State replicate last year's 12-0 campaign? Can Oregon maintain its standard of success under new leadership? With the college football season approaching, Sports Illustrated unveils its preseason Top 25.
The case for
In September and October, Boise State quarterback Joe Southwick, now a 6-foot-1, 202-pound senior, said he was tentative, inaccurate and often held the ball too long. But in November, he said, "something just clicked," and Southwick became one of the most productive quarterbacks in the nation. Over the last four games, he completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 888 yards, with nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
Broncos coach Chris Petersen, who has only seven total starters returning -- the fewest of his eight-year tenure in Boise -- believes the 2012 late-season incarnation of Southwick will be on display in '13. To help, Southwick will have his top two receivers back: 6-3, 218-pound junior Matt Miller (769 yards, 5 TDs) and 6-3, 206-pound senior Kirby Moore (368 yards, 1 TD) as well as 6-5, 221-pound sophomore tight end Holden Huff (250 yards, 4 TDs).
The case against
Boise could struggle to defend the pass. The team's weakest position is cornerback, where sophomore Donte Deayon and junior Bryan Douglas are slated to start. The Broncos only lost twice last year and by a total of six points. More close games this season will require those corners to make big plays or an unproven pass rush to step up.
The season begins with a bang: an Aug. 31 opener at Washington, one of the noisiest stadiums in the country. After that road test the Broncos face more tough travel: at Fresno State (on Sept. 20), BYU (Oct. 25) and San Diego State (Nov. 23). Fortunately two of the final three (Wyoming and New Mexico) are at home.
30.2: Boise averaged 30.2 points per game in 2012, the team's lowest scoring output since 1998. The Broncos could find themselves in multiple scoring shootouts in the Mountain West, so it's imperative they increase this number in 2013.
RB Jay Ajayi: Even as a backup last season, Ajayi carved his name into the Boise State record book: His 6.7-yards-per-carry average was the highest in school history among backs with at least 75 rushing attempts in a season. Playing behind D.J. Harper in 2012, Ajayi, now a redshirt sophomore, gained 548 yards on 82 carries and scored four touchdowns. This season the 6-foot, 215-poind Ajay, whose pile-pushing running style reminds coaches of former Boise star and current Tampa Bay Buccaneer Doug Martin, will be the featured back in the Broncos' offense. "Joe has lost some weight from last year but he's still a bigger back that can rumble and get those tough yards," Petersen said. "We're optimistic that, if he can stay healthy, he'll be very productive for us."
Freshman to watch
LB Joe Martarano: A quarterback and linebacker, Martarano led Fruitland (Idaho) High to four 3A state title games, played on two state championship basketball teams and was chosen in the 2013 MLB draft. At Boise the 6-3, 228-pounder will see action at linebacker.
K Tyler Rausa: For the past several seasons the most glaring weakness in the Boise program has been the kicking game. Enter sophomore Tyler Rausa, who spent last year at Riverside (Calif.) Community College, where he connected on 15-of-20 field goals (with a long of 48 yards) and 52-of-53 PATs. Boise lost a chance to play for the BCS national championship in 2010 because of a flubbed 26-yard kick at the end of regulation against Nevada and a shanked 29-yarder in overtime, and those misses still haunt the program. If Boise hopes to get back into the BCS discussion in 2013, it will need a strong season from Rausa.
2013 stat projections (By RotoWire.com)
QB Joe Southwick: 2,680 passing yards, 22 TDs; 90 rushing yards, 1 TD
RB Jay Ajayi: 1,250 rushing yards, 16 TDs; 100 receiving yards, 0 TDs
WR Matt Miller: 790 receiving yards, 8 TDs; 25 rushing yards, 0 TDs
Coach speak: Chris Petersen
SI: You've won 61 games in the last five years. How have you maintained a high level of success?
CP: It's not any one thing. It's really as simple as having good coaches, recruiting the right players and having those players buy into our system. Older guys have always done a good job of teaching the younger players.
SI: What are your expectations for this team?
CP: This is an interesting team. Since I've been here, this is the fewest returning starters [four on offense, three on defense] we've had. So we're young. This is also probably the hardest schedule we've had.
SI: What's the strength of your team?
CP: We hope it will be the offense. We've got experience on the line, experience at quarterback and experienced wide receivers. I think we can pick up where we ended off last year.
SI: Are you happy to stay in the Mountain West?
CP: I am. Geographically, it makes complete sense for us. Leagues keep changing, but we're in a good place. Our fans can drive to away games. And our league is much better than people think.