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Bowl projections: Solving the SEC logjam; what to do with Notre Dame?

Photo: Cal Sport Media via AP Images

With no bowl agreement, Notre Dame will be at the mercy of the system for its postseason destination.

And so it begins. The calendar has turned to November, which means I begin my annual tradition of trying to forecast the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl matchup a month in advance. If I keep trying long enough, I'll get it right one day.

My projections for the BCS games are the same as they have been in College Football Overtime for the past several weeks. Beyond the national title game, the two key questions that will ultimately determine the BCS lineup are whether Fresno State or Northern Illinois will remain undefeated and in line for a guaranteed berth; and who will be the SEC's second team, which is almost impossible to answer given the conference's logjam of five teams ranked from No. 8 to No. 15 by the BCS.

The SEC's parity caused me the most difficulty when filling out the rest of my lineup. Right now I'm projecting seven SEC teams to finish from 10-2 to 8-4. After placing Auburn as a BCS at-large team and then filling the Capital One, Outback, Cotton, Gator and Chick-fil-A bowls, that still leaves an eight-win or better team slipping to the Music City Bowl. This week that team is Georgia, in large part because the Chick-fil-A has Clemson on the other side. (And the Bulldogs' presence there then caused me to drop Georgia Tech a spot in the ACC order.)

A subject that will loom particularly large in determining bowl invitations early next month is a possible landing spot for Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish, currently 7-2 and ranked No. 24 by the AP, have no deal in place this year if they don't win out (which would require a victory at Stanford on Nov. 30) and reach the BCS. That means they will have to wait and see which conferences fail to fill their allotments. As you'll see below, I found a scenario in which Notre Dame might end up playing a fellow ranked team in a highly unlikely spot.

A quick refresher on how all this works:

• After the No. 1 and 2 teams are slotted and replaced, the BCS at-large selection order this year is: 1) Orange, 2) Sugar and 3) Fiesta. The highest-ranked champion from a non-automatic qualifier is guaranteed a BCS berth if it finishes in the top 12 or in the top 16 and ahead of an AQ-conference champion.

• Most bowls are not obligated -- I repeat, NOT OBLIGATED -- to choose in exact order of conference standings. For instance, "Big 12 No. 3" means "third selection of Big 12 teams," not "the Big 12's third-place team." Bowls often pick a team with an inferior record due to geography, anticipated fan travel, the need to avoid a regular-season rematch or good old backroom politicking.

BCS bowls
DateBowlLocationPredicted matchup
Jan. 1RosePasadena, Calif.Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. Stanford (BCS at-large)
Jan. 1FiestaGlendale, Ariz.Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. Fresno State (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2SugarNew OrleansAuburn (BCS at-large) vs. UCF (AAC champ)
Jan. 3OrangeMiamiFlorida State (ACC champ) vs. Wisconsin (BCS at-large)
Jan. 6BCS championshipPasadena, Calif.Alabama (BCS No. 1) vs. Oregon (BCS No. 2)

Other bowls
DateBowlLocationPredicted matchup
Dec. 21New MexicoAlbuquerque, N.M.UNLV (MWC) vs. Oregon St. (Pac-12 No. 7)
Dec. 21Las VegasLas VegasBoise State (MWC No. 1) vs. USC (Pac-12 No. 5)
Dec. 21 Idaho PotatoBoise, IdahoWestern Kentucky (MWC*) vs. Ohio (MAC)
Dec. 21 New OrleansNew OrleansLouisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt No. 1) vs. Tulane (C-USA)
Dec. 23 Beef 'O' Brady'sSt. Petersburg, Fla.Toledo (AAC*) vs. Marshall (C-USA)
Dec. 24HawaiiHonoluluUtah State (MWC) vs. Rice (C-USA)
Dec. 26 Little CaesarsDetroitNorthern Illinois (MAC) vs. Notre Dame (Big Ten No. 8*)
Dec. 26 Poinsettia San Diego San Jose State (MWC No. 2) vs. North Carolina (Army*)
Dec. 27Military Annapolis, Md.Maryland (ACC No. 8) vs. Middle Tennessee State (C-USA)
Dec. 27 TexasHoustonIowa (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Kansas State (Big 12 No. 6)
Dec. 27Fight HungerSan Francisco Arizona (Pac-12 No. 6) vs. BYU (BYU)
Dec. 28 PinstripeBronx, N.Y.Rutgers (AAC No. 4) vs. West Virginia (Big 12 No. 7)
Dec. 28 BelkCharlotteHouston (AAC No. 3) vs. Duke (ACC No. 5)
Dec. 28Russell AthleticOrlandoLouisville (AAC No. 2) vs. Miami (ACC No. 3)
Dec. 28Buffalo Wild WingsTempe, Ariz.Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Nebraska (Big Ten No. 4)
Dec. 30Armed ForcesFort Worth, TexasColorado State (MWC) vs. Navy (Navy)
Dec. 30Music CityNashvilleBoston College (ACC No. 6) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Dec. 30AlamoSan AntonioUCLA (Pac-12 No. 2) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 30Holiday San DiegoArizona State (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 5)
Dec. 31AdvoCareShreveport, La.Georgia Tech (ACC No. 7) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC)
Dec. 31SunEl Paso, TexasVirginia Tech (ACC No. 4) vs. Washington (Pac-12 No. 4)
Dec. 31LibertyMemphisEast Carolina (C-USA No. 1) vs. Tennessee (SEC)
Dec. 31Chick-fil-AAtlantaClemson (ACC No. 2) vs. Ole Miss (SEC)
Jan. 1Heart of DallasDallasTexas State (Big Ten No. 7*) vs. North Texas (C-USA)
Jan. 1GatorJacksonvilleMinnesota (Big Ten No. 5) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
Jan. 1OutbackTampaMichigan (Big Ten No. 3) vs. Missouri (SEC)
Jan. 1Capital OneOrlandoTexas A&M (SEC No. 2) vs. Michigan State (Big Ten No. 2)
Jan. 3CottonArlington, TexasTexas (Big 12 No. 2) vs. LSU (SEC)
Jan. 4BBVA CompassBirmingham, Ala.Cincinnati (AAC) vs. Florida (SEC)
Jan. 5GoDaddyMobile, Ala.Ball State (MAC) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (Sun Belt)

Teams in bold have accepted a bid.

* -- Replacement team for a conference without an eligible team

MANDEL: College Football Overtime: Key matchups could bring clarity to BCS title race; more Overtime

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