Thursday November 12th, 2015

The Mississippi State Bulldogs are 11-4 straight up and against the spread in their last 15 home games against SEC opponents. The Bulldogs will try to shake up the college football landscape with an upset win this Saturday against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Mississippi State is a 7.5-point underdog at home at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In their last four games as a home underdog, the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS with two outright upsets.

With a 31-13 win at Missouri last Saturday, the Bulldogs improved to 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS on the 2015 season. The Bulldogs have now won four straight games and covered the spread in their last three games, averaging 40.8 points per game on offense while allowing only 16.5 points per game on defense over the four-game stretch.

College Football
The Fade: Breaking down Week 11 college football odds, best bets

To come away with an upset on Saturday, senior quarterback Dak Prescott will likely need to be at his best and play a mistake-free game.

The Iron Bowl at Auburn still looms on Alabama's schedule, but with Auburn suffering through a down year this season, it could be argued that this week's game is the biggest obstacle standing between the Crimson Tide and a playoff spot. Alabama improved to 4-1 SU and ATS against ranked opponents this season with its 30-16 home win over LSU last Saturday. Derrick Henry made his Heisman case with a 210-yard and three touchdown performance.

Alabama is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight November road games per the OddsShark College Football Database.

The total for Saturday's game is 52 points. The UNDER is 8-1 in Mississippi State's last nine games as a home underdog.

The Crimson Tide are a perfect 7-0 SU in their last seven games against the Bulldogs and own a 4-3 ATS edge over that stretch as well. Mississippi State had lost its previous six games to Alabama by at least 13 points before last year when it bridged the gap in a 5-point loss at Alabama.

Now getting the chance to take on Alabama in Starkville, the Bulldogs will try to get over the hump and play spoiler with an upset win on Saturday.

SI Apps
We've Got Apps Too
Get expert analysis, unrivaled access, and the award-winning storytelling only SI can provide - from Peter King, Tom Verducci, Lee Jenkins, Seth Davis, and more - delivered straight to you, along with up-to-the-minute news and live scores.