Preview, Prediction: Iowa vs. SDSU

Hawkeyes Play Host to FCS Power in Season-Opener

IOWA CITY, Iowa - Iowa Football need not reach far into its past for a cautionary tale about losing to an FCS opponent. That should help the Hawkeyes focus on Saturday's season-opener against South Dakota State at Kinnick Stadium. 

North Dakota State knocked off then No. 13 and defending Big Ten West Division champion Iowa, 23-21, in September of 2016. Hawkeye All-American cornerback Riley Moss watched from the stands that day. 

"I was there as a fan. It wasn't a fun ride home. As a fan, not knowing what went into it, I was thinking we easily win the game," he said this week.  

While none of the student-athletes on this year's team experienced that disappointment as players, most of the coaches did. Their warning has gotten through to this year's players. 

"This is a good football team. They've had a ton of success the last couple of years," Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras said. "We both played Colorado State last year. They kicked Colorado State's ass, and we had a pretty close game with Colorado State at home. 

"So, there's no having to get us fired up for this game. This is a really good football team. They're really well coached. They play hard. And they're coming in here to beat us. We're not taking this lightly. You can't. If we do, we're not going to be happy." 

The Jackrabbits reached the FCS championship semifinals a year ago and came into this season ranked second nationally behind North Dakota State. They return plenty of playmakers on both sides of the ball. 

Head coach John Stiegelmeier welcomes back starting quarterback Mark Gronowski, who missed last season with an injury after being the conference offensive player of the year as a true freshman. He's a dual threat, having passed for 15 touchdowns and run for seven more in his first college campaign. 

Gronowski is surrounded by dangerous weapons. All-American tight end Tucker Kraft (65 receptions, 780 yards, 6 touchdowns in '21) and receiver Jaxon Janke (72-1,165-5) can stress a defense. Running back Isaiah Davis is a preseason all-American and Walter Payton Award candidate, while all-American offensive linemen Mason McCormick and Garret Greenfield are back.

"They have a lot of good skill guys," Iowa linebacker Seth Benson said. "They do a good job of trades and motions and things like that, that try to displace your eyes and get guys open. So, we're going to have to be very disciplined in our fits. They've got an explosive offense." 

While it can be multiple, SDSU favors two tight-end formations. 

"They got two really good tight ends that they utilize really well," Benson said. "Some teams focus on 11 or half and half, so they're pretty unique in that their tight ends can run routes and are versatile." 

The Jackrabbits yielded just 19.7 points a game last season. Up front, tackle Caleb Sanders (6.5 sacks, 13.0 tackle for loss) and end Reece Winkelman (5.5, 13.5) led the way and will be high on every opponent scouting report this fall. 

Not to be outdone, linebackers Adam Bock (125 tackles) and Isaiah Stalbird (73) are back after pacing the team in stops last year. Bock hails from Solon (IA) High, where he grew up a Hawkeye fan. 

Veteran cornerbacks Malik Lofton and DyShawn Gales return. Dalys Beanum comes back after leading the team with four interceptions in '21. 

"They're a physical outfit. They want to impose themselves. Their D-Line likes to play square. We need to attack their bodies in a position that we need to be successful," Hawkeye offensive lineman Connor Colby said. 

Iowa is expected to be strong again on defense and special teams, the units that paved the way to a 10-4 mark a year ago. Everyone who follows the team is wondering if the offense can improve its consistency this fall. 

Stiegelmeier is a believer in the Hawkeyes as a whole. 

"I believe this will be the best football team we will play in my 35 years here at South Dakota State. In fact, there's no doubt in my mind," he said. "What (the SDSU players) need to hear from me is how big this challenge is going to be. If we're going to have any chance, we're going to have to play our best football and be error free." 

TV ANNOUNCERS: Noah Eagle and Mark Helfrich on FS1.

SERIES: The Hawkeyes are meeting South Dakota State for the first time in program history. It is Iowa’s first game against an FCS opponent since hosting Northern Iowa (W, 38-14) during the 2018 season.

BETTING LINES: Iowa showed up as a 15.5-point favorite at OddsShark.com Monday afternoon. The total was set at 44.5. 

TRENDS

-South Dakota State is 5-0 Against The Spread in its last 5 games.

-The total has gone OVER in 6 of South Dakota State's last 7 games.

-The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games.

-Iowa is 7-0 Straight Up in its last 7 games played in September.

SDSU PLAYERS TO WATCH

-Jaxon Janke, WR – The South Dakota native has led the Jackrabbits in receiving in each of the last two seasons. In '21, he caught 72 balls for 1,165 yards and five touchdowns. He recorded a reception in all 15 games last fall. He earned second-team all-conference honors two years running. 

-Tucker Craft, TE – Another South Dakota product, Craft earned second-team FCS All-American honors from the AP last season when he caught 65 passes for 780 yards and a team-high six touchdown receptions. He hauled in at least two balls in all 15 of the team's game a year ago. 

-Adam Bock, LB – It's a homecoming for the Solon (IA) High graduate. The junior paced SDSU with 125 total tackles, which included 9.5 stops for loss and 2.5 sacks. He also picked off two passes, forced a pair of fumbles and blocked a kick in '21. He's been named a finalist for the Buck Buchanan Award, given to the level's top defender. 

KEYS TO VICTORY

SDSU: The Jackrabbits need to protect the football and sustain multiple drives against Iowa's dominant defense. 

Iowa: The Hawkeyes should be able to wear down SDSU over time. Doing it with a productive running game would be ideal. 

GAME NOTES

-Now in his 26th year as head coach, has led SDSU to a 16-9 record in season openers. The Jackrabbits won each of their first seven season openers under Coach Stig, starting with a 17-7 victory at UC Davis in 1997.

-South Dakota State will face a Football Bowl Subdivision opponent for the 12th time since moving to the Division I ranks. The Jackrabbits have compiled a 2-9 record against FBS foes, starting with a 44-17 setback at Iowa State in the 2008 season opener.

-South Dakota State is one of only two Football Championship Subdivision programs to reach the playoffs each of the last 10 seasons, including advancing to the national semifinals or championship game in four of the last five seasons.

-By being ranked second in the preseason Stats Perform FCS poll, SDSU has now appeared in the top 25 of 132 consecutive media polls dating back to October 2012.

-Over its 15-game 2021 season, the South Dakota State offense averaged 6.9 yards per play. The Jackrabbits averaged at least 7.5 yards per play in each of their first three games, highlighted by an average of 9.3 yards per play in their Sept. 11 home opener against Lindenwood. Conversely, SDSU limited the opposition to 5.2 yards per play, including 3.3 yards per rushing attempt.

-Iowa is 98-33-2 (.748) in season openers, including a 19-4 mark under head coach Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes had won six straight season openers prior to losing the opening game in 2020. Iowa is 19-2 in season openers since 2001.

-The Hawkeyes return 17 starters (8 on offense, 7 defense, 2 specialists) and 44 letterwinners from a team that won 10 games and won the Big Ten West Division title in 2021.

-Iowa’s defense has ranked in the top 16 in total defense and the top 13 in scoring defense in the FBS in each of the last four seasons. Over the last five years, Iowa and Clemson are the only two CFB teams to allow 30 or more points in fewer than 10 percent of their games.

-Iowa returns all three starting linebackers in Jack Campbell, Seth Benson and Jestin Jacobs. The Hawkeyes are the only team in the nation to have three linebackers on the Butkas Award Preseason Watch List.

-Iowa has 89 interceptions since 2017, the most of any team nationally. The defense had a school-record 25 interceptions in 2021, including four apiece by Riley Moss and Jermari Harris.

NOTABLE ALUMNI

SDSU – Cleveland Abbott

Iowa - Juanita Kidd Stout

HOWE I SEE IT: While a lot of uninitiated folks will view this as a walk-over for the Hawkeyes, they know better. They can look back at the 23-21 loss to North Dakota State back in '16 at Kinnick Stadium. 

North Dakota State has been the class of the FCS, winning nine national titles since '11, including last year. The Jackrabbits have built  program to compete with their neighbors to the north, having reached the national semifinals a year ago and the playoffs 10 years running. 

SDSU returns 14 starters, including its top two receivers, quarterback and top three tacklers. It's ranked second nationally behind North Dakota State to start the campaign.  

The Jackrabbits beat FBS Colorado State last fall and fell by just a touchdown at Minnesota in '19. They won't be intimidated coming into Kinnick. 

I think SDSU can hang with the Hawkeyes and probably will until the home team's depth and talent takes over in the second half. 

PREDICTION: IOWA 31, SDSU 16