Fantasy Deconstruction: Dolphins offense
Is the wildcat formation a fad that will go the way of the Run n' Shoot? Or is it becoming a revolutionary staple of NFL offenses? Call it what you want. The bottom line is it's a significant part of the Dolphins' offense, and will have an impact on their fantasy weapons for the rest of the season.
The Fish were in the formation 8.4 percent of snaps last year, but scored over 21 percent of their offensive TDs while in the package. As you can see, it was more of a TD toy last year than a basic formation. On Monday night against the Colts, the Dolphins dialed up the hyped formation 12 times and averaged 8.9 yards per play. On all other plays, they averaged 4.1 yards.
My friends, the wildcat is there to stay in South Florida.
Many fantasy gurus don't realize that
Pennington has thrown for less than 200 yards in both games this season and has one passing TD. The Dolphins' receiving weapons are average at best. Sure,
For those of you looking for
As I said, in most leagues I would rarely consider starting Pennington. He is up against the Bolts this week on the road. Keep him on the pine. The Chargers are ranked 13th against the pass in 2009 and have some QB-harassing weapons led by
The Chargers' rush defense is 24th against the run after the first two games. It has a gaping hole with Williams out for the year. The Fish will hammer the pigskin in attempt to keep the underrated Chargers' passing attack off the field. Mr. Brown will have a nice day and have his owners proclaiming, "Long live the wildcat."
C'mon, you Ginn haters, you had to be somewhat impressed by his performance last week. Sure, he could have and should have caught two game-changing passes in the end zone, and the mainstream media has been all over him this week for those catchable balls. At "Deconstructing", we care about fantasy and not reality. As fantasy owners, a couple of our key indicators are future potential and opportunity. Ginn has both going for him.
On Monday night, Ginn had 11 catches for 108 receiving yards on 16 targets. Read that again. He had 16 targets in a run-heavy offense when Pennington only launched the rock 33 times. Moreover, despite the well-publicized near-misses, Ginn put up outstanding numbers. He ran crisp routes and showed steady hands on most of his timing routes.
Sure, Ginn needs to work on catching the ball in traffic and coming up big in clutch situations. But remember, he could only run a fly pattern coming out of Ohio State. He has surely developed and now he's flashing upside. Even in a conservative offense, Ginn is a great WR3 in most leagues, and could develop into a weak WR2 given the fact he's the centerpiece in the passing offense.
It's hard to get too excited about the rest of the Dolphins' wideouts.
Ginn goes up against a solid set of CBs in
The Fish should strongly consider giving Fasano more looks in the passing game. The 6-4, 257 pound tight end only has three catches for 11 yards this season. The big boy has only been targeted five times. Fasano was quietly the ninth-ranked TE in fantasy football last year with 34 receptions, 454 yards and seven TDs. He has some skills, especially around the goal line. So far, Fasano has been stuck blocking much more than he's been on receiving routes. As we know, blocking assignments in the passing game are a fantasy killer for our TEs. At this point, Fasano is nothing more than a weak bye week fill-in until the Dolphins start giving him passing looks.
While the Chargers have had their problems against TEs, this is not the time to throw Fasano out there as your starting TE. Monitor him this week to see if he gets additional opportunities. He could be a back-end spot starter once the bye weeks starting flowing next week.