Tipping pitches: Future mixed for hottest starting pitchers in 2010
To believe or not to believe, that is the question.
It's not completely out-of-the-ordinary for a mediocre pitcher to dominate for short periods of time. Heck, even
Here's some background on a few of the hotter starters, so you can decide to believe or leave:
He's been very inconsistent so far in 2010. He allowed three homers in his first start, and then walked more than he struck out in his second start.
Correia was at his best in '06, when he had a 7.36 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 2.59 K/BB. He produced a 3.52 FIP in 69.2 innings that season.
Those '06 numbers are his upside and they would certainly be helpful in fantasy leagues. Wait and see if he can build on his April 17 start and be more consistent.
It looks like a trend for now, so long as he maintains his control. Romero's 8.61 K/9 isn't shocking considering what he did in '09, but it's his 2.35 BB/9 that shows real progress.
He walked 3.99 batters per nine innings last year and hasn't produced a rate below 3.00 for any length of time since '06 in the minors.
With a plus changeup and curve, Romero has the tools to be an excellent ground ball pitcher. Combine that with his solid strikeout ability, and you have someone who can really help fantasy teams if his walks are held in check.
His GB% (69.7) skills are real, but his BABIP (.158), HR/9 (0.00) and average (.120) will all normalize soon. Ride the hot streak while it continues, then prepare for a rocky stretch.
Fister has good control, but that's about it. Keep him away from your fantasy rosters.
He will allow home runs (current HR/9 is 0.00) moving forward and his .231 BABIP will inch toward his career .312 rate. As long as he his K/9 is around 6.50, he should be useful in fantasy leagues.
Braden's approach has been above average for the past two years in that he's getting ahead of batters at a good pace. His FS% was 62.1 last year and is 63 this year.
His contact rate improvement is harder to believe. His rate dropped from 83.7 last year to 76.7 so far this year. He's using his changeup more and his fastball less, maybe that's enough of a difference to account for the lower contact rate. He's likely in for a K/9 regression.
His BB/9 and GB% numbers are right in line with '09 and appear to be his keys to success.
Batters are also making much better contact against him. His HR/9 is 1.02 (0.43 in '09) and his average against is .286 (.232 in '09).
Greinke's '09 numbers are skewed a little bit because of his ridiculously good start, but he's better than he's pitched so far in '10.