Fantasy baseball mailbag: Ackley moves toward elite at second
There are only a few weeks left in the fantasy baseball season (sniffle) but that doesn't mean there aren't still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the
Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign, hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI, 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position with few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves him well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer's keeper value in this setup as low.
Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, with a .367 OBP, he's also shown solid extra base power for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we'd end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homers, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.
Pineda has had a bit of a rough go of late, but he's still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It's not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates' anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there's no reason to expect any drop in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.
Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that's something. The uber-talented outfielder can't legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored in over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield. If Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club, so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it's nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.
I would pass on Trout -- he's not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I'd pass on Hosmer -- I don't think he's going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it's Ackley or Pineda. Since I'm of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitcher's season, I'd settle on Ackley, who could be an up-the-middle star as soon as next year.
A better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you're in great shape there.
Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He's inconsistent, but there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks -- Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).
Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He's also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season. And for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he's batting .301 right now). He's an elite performer at what he does.
McCann is as consistent a hitter at catcher as you're going to find. He's hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He's also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI.
Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18.
Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He's also had a fantastic fantasy season, hitting .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years -- Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.
Finally, Ortiz is having a fantastic season; he's on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he'll be 36 next year and has never been a paragon of physical fitness. Further, he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.
If I'm protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don't trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn't protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy-go-lucky attitude, but I'm not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, an elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist, who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.
Lewis has won 12 games for the second straight year, though his performance has slipped a bit (His ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). He's been hit hard over his last four outings, surrendering 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally, I would say something like "it's only four starts, things will even out," and though I still believe that, we don't have much time left this year. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.
Lewis is a solid hurler. Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is Sept. 17 in Seattle and then Sept. 24 at home against Seattle. You really can't ask for two better matchups. So do you start a pitcher with great matchups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I'd let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.