SI.com's Bill Trocchi analyzes the matchup.

The Wildcats put together a perfect September and stood 6-1 after beating top-ranked LSU on Oct. 13. Since then, however, UK is 1-4 with its lone win a 27-20 victory over Vanderbilt. Quarterback Andre Woodson will be the third elite quarterback Florida State has faced this year, after Boston College's Matt Ryan and Florida's Tim Tebow. Woodson has a slow release and can be pressured (Kentucky allowed the most sacks in the SEC), but he has great accuracy and a strong arm -- two traits that will get him a shot in the NFL. Running back Rafael Little has not been the same since suffering a midseason thigh injury. When healthy, he is dangerous catching passes out of the backfield for the SEC's top passing offense.

Kentucky's run defense has been a weakness all season. The Wildcats gave up an average of 190 yards on the ground, including 338 to Arkansas. Most teams tried to keep the ball on the ground because of Kentucky's lack of run-stoppers and to keep Woodson off the field. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard the player to watch -- the senior was named first-team All-SEC for the second straight year and led the league in tackles with 124.

Florida State will be without 16 players from its two-deep, including defensive stalwarts Dekoda Watson and Patrick Robinson. A majority of the players were caught in a cheating scandal, though some are injured or are facing some other discipline.

Quarterback Drew Weatherford has been much maligned, but say this about the junior: he doesn't throw interceptions. Weatherford has thrown 234 straight passes without a pick and has just one on the season. With the offense struggling, he was replaced by Xavier Lee in Week 4 against Alabama, but Weatherford won the job back four weeks later and has held onto it. Lee will not travel for the bowl game. Florida State's ground game continues to be an issue, as the 'Noles ranked 96th in the nation with 121 rushing yards per game.

Linebacker Geno Hayes is 14th in the nation in tackles for loss and is the lone All-ACC selection on a thin Seminoles D. FSU was fairly stout against the run, but Kentucky will likely attack through the air with Woodson, especially with Robinson gone. Robinson was third in the nation in interceptions with six.

Florida State has been down for a few years, and now they are missing a big chunk of their first- and second-stringers. There will likely be a decidedly blue crowd in Nashville, and Woodson and the Wildcats will not disappoint.

The pick: Kentucky 38, Florida State 20

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