After spending much of the week on the phone fact-finding about the 2010 NFL Draft, here are five things I think I think six days out from round one:
1. I think the Jaguars want to move down, and they're not alone.
GM Gene Smith is a lover of draft picks, the more the merrier (who isn't, really?), and he was to dump out of the No. 10 selection. I thought for a while this week that he might have a great match down a few spots that could net him a second-round pick. I thought he could deal with Seattle at No. 14, moving down four spots and picking up the 60th overall pick, the choice Seattle acquired from San Diego in the Charlie Whitehurst deal. No dice, though -- even though it makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks to come up for running back C.J. Spiller, one of the objects of their affection.
Seattle has a new regime with a draft-pick-coveting GM, John Schneider, and I believe the 'Hawks feel they have too many holes to give up the chance to draft a legitimate starter for them at number 60.
2. I think the Eagles want to come up.
Let me rephrase that -- I know they want to come up. The Eagles are in a very small club, teams that want to jump up from low in the first round to the upper half. I believe Philly wants one of the two safeties in the draft -- Eric Berry of Tennessee or Earl Thomas of Texas. With the 24th, 35th, 55th and 70th picks, the Eagles absolutely have the ammo to move up.
3. I think Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland want to recoup the second-round pick they lost in the Brandon Marshall trade.
Could Miami be a fit for the Philly tradeup? Absolutely -- if Thomas or the defensive object of the Eagles' attention is still there. Miami knows this is a special draft, and the Dolphins don't want to finish up with the 12th pick and no others in the top 70. Miami is in a tough spot, I think, if unable to flip the pick down because the Dolphins want to get someone to rush the passer, and there's not a single no-doubt long-term double-digit-sack lock in this draft.
If Miami stays at 12 and picks one of the rushers -- Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul -- Ireland might go to bed after the first round and wonder if he just got a great prospect or a great question mark.
4. I think you'd be surprised at the one name I've heard the most about in the past three or four days.
I don't mean the guys at the very top of the draft -- I'm talking more about, say, 10 to 25. One name: Maurkice Pouncey. (Full draft profile on Pouncey here.) So many teams look at him and say, "He's a plug-and-play player for the next 10 years.'' Meaning you can put him in the lineup for the next 10 years and not worry about it. Solid as a rock. There are, quite literally, six teams seriously considering him in the middle 15 picks of the first round.
5. I think, as much as I wish he'd make it into the first round, I don't have Colt McCoy going in round one as of this morning.
As of today, I've got him in the first half of the second round, which I think is a big, big mistake for quarterback-needy teams between 20 and 40. Other than a maddening tendency to hold the ball way too long in the pocket and almost invite sacks, McCoy has few weaknesses and I believe he will be a good starting NFL quarterback for the team lucky enough to have him fall to them.