Fantasy Clicks: Raging debates, mini-Revelations and RB handcuffs
Let's start today's Fantasy Clicks with six too-close-to-call debates for draft day. And for the sake of consistency, I'll stick to the realm of standard-scoring leagues:
From a stat-geek perspective, Peterson made an eight-touchdown leap from 2009 to 2008; but his yards-per-touch also jumped to 5.21 -- up from 4.91 in '08 -- even though he finished with 66 fewer total yards last season. He also experienced a sizable bump in receptions. His 43 catches in 2009 exceeded his combined total of 40 from 2007 and '08 -- and that happened
Next up, with
On the flip side, it'd be utterly foolish to argue against an under-25 talent who amassed 2,500 total yards last year -- while playing on a team with little receiving help. So look at it this way:
It's perfectly natural to wonder if Turner's injury-riddled '09 campaign was the byproduct of 376 carries from 2008 -- 70 carries more than his five other NFL seasons combined. On the flip side, we're left to wonder how many productive careers have been ruined by incidental high-ankle sprains? The answer: Zero. Bottom line: Turner, who's averaging 97 total yards/1 TD per game in his Atlanta career, has returned to his '08 fighting weight, in anticipation of another monster year for the run-first Falcons -- in the neighborhood of 1,500 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
I have no idea if Arizona QB
And in case any of you are thinking of Reggie Wayne, his ranking will likely fluctuate between 4th and 8th all summer, given his age and possible (but not likely) holdout. In a vacuum, Wayne is a lock for 91 catches, 1,200 yards, eight scores and a redoubtable top-4 receiver -- but doesn't possess the upside of A-Johnson, Fitz, Moss or
Brees might finish as the No. 2 QB by season's end -- stemming from a Super Bowl hangover or continued dip in completions and pass attempts -- but he should easily be leading the group when the calendar flips to November. In October alone -- against Carolina , Arizona, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh -- Brees should amass
In an interview with
I will devote Monday's Fantasy Clicks to Points Per Reception drafts and what owners can expect for the season ahead. So, if you have ZERO interest in PPR leagues, or joining a PPR league, or even reading about celebrities and their PPR drafts ... then, by all means, enjoy your little Clicks-free weekend.
In the realm of covering fantasy sports, it's common courtesy for so-called-expert writers to participate in numerous preseason mock drafts of other so-called writing experts -- as a means of networking, sharing knowledge and giving the general public something to think about before their respective seasonal drafts. And for the last three years, I have essentially moved mountains to accommodate as many websites/publications as possible within this process because, frankly, it's just a nice way of doing business, while promoting SI.com. It's finally time to publicly flog one particular style of drafting: The slow draft.
The concept of a slow draft is rather simple (and stupid): A group of 10 or 12 owners get togther -- via the Web or email -- to select their fantasy teams. But instead of the standard 60-90 seconds between picks, each owner has up to EIGHT HOURS to make his/her selection. Now, obviously, these drafts are designed for the busy, busy, busy person who simply doesn't have time to sit at his/her computer for 90 minutes and draft a complete club; and, in theory, it allows everyone to acquire their preferred players without feeling the pinch of work, family, friends or time constraints tugging them in multiple directions. But to me, it's the most painful way to satisfy one's fantasy fix.
In this day and age, you're either chained to your home/work computer for 14 hours a day ... or cruising around town with a BlackBerry or Droid sutured to your wrist. In other words, there are no tolerable excuses for someone saying,
The lesson here: Avoid all slow drafts. Seriously.
But I feel good about that slot for Spiller after watching his amazing
On the plus side, owners should have little trouble collecting the Addai-Brown handcuff in drafts, without reaching for either one.
2. I have zero interest in reaching for
3. Don't let Randy Moss's pedestrian bottom line (2 catches, 24 yards) fool ya -- Brady barely missed him on a loooooooong TD bomb, something that likely won't be the case next month.
4. The Falcons obviously had no intentions of winning Thursday's game -- and it showed with lackluster outings from
By my count, there are only 14 legitimate workhorse tailbacks among the 32 NFL teams. A "workhorse" back is someone who logs more than 50 percent of the carries/touches in three scenarios -- 1) On first down 2) On 3rd and long, and 3) With goal-line touches. Here are the Alpha-dog rushers:
Conversely, here are the 18 greatest time-shares at running back:
... To NOT draft Seattle's
• Hasselbeck had only four -- count 'em, FOUR! -- multiple-TD games last year.
Here's my up-to-date listing of the top 25 tight ends:
There's a certain coolness to owning the No. 4 pick in fantasy drafts. For starters, you're guaranteed to land one of The Big Four (Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson,
Well, hath no fear or ambivalence ... because here's a great strategy for nailing your draft when owning the 4th pick:
Round 1, Pick 4: Motive -- Best overall player
Round 2, Pick 21 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR available
Round 3, Pick 28 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR (or
Round 4, Pick 45 overall: Motive -- Best WR/QB available
Round 5, Pick 52 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR/QB available
Round 6, Pick 69 overall: Motive -- Best player available (preferably TE)
Round 7, Pick 76 overall: Motive -- Best WR/RB/TE available
Round 8, Pick 93 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR/QB/TE available
Round 9, Pick 100 overall: Motive -- Best TE/RB/WR available
Round 10, Pick 117 overall: Motive -- Best RB/WR or elite defense
Round 11, Pick 124: Motive -- Best WR/TE available
Round 12, Pick 141: Motive -- Best upside pick or available D/ST
Round 13, Pick 158: Motive -- Best D/ST available
Round 14, Pick 165: Motive -- Best kicker available
Round 15, Pick 182: Motive -- Best handcuff RB left
Round 16, Pick 189: Motive -- Best WR with upside