Sophomore breakout candidates
Good news, Hoopheads. It's time once again for America's favorite sophomoric exercise.
Every season around this time, I scour the country in search of 10 players who I expect will undergo a major improvement from their freshman to their sophomore season. Why do I focus on sophomores as opposed to another class? Because any coach will tell you that over the course of a player's career, he usually makes his greatest leap forward between his freshman and sophomore years in college.
There are three reasons for this. First and foremost, freshmen are usually not prepared for the physical rigors of college basketball. Most high schools don't have advanced strength and conditioning programs, so the players come in unprepared to take on older, stronger men.
Second, it generally takes a year to adjust to the speed of the college game. When their mind catches up, the pace slows down.
And finally, even if a freshman has the ability to put up numbers off the bat, he often has to wait until the incumbent at his position leaves, either via graduation or early entry to the NBA draft. So when his sophomore year begins, he gets the opportunity to play, and he is now more physically and mentally prepared to take advantage.
One of my goals here is to choose players who aren't overly obvious. So before I get to my list, here are the players I excused from consideration:
Jordan Hamilton, Texas; Kenny Boynton, Florida; Kawhi Leonard, San Diego State; Jordan Williams, Maryland; D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul, Illinois; Derrick Williams and Solomon Hill, Arizona; Durand Scott, Miami.
Once again, at the bottom of this column I have revisited last year's list and provided an update on how they (and I) did. Here are my 10 breakout sophomores for 2010-11. I'm already looking forward to checking back a year from now to see how prescient I was -- or wasn't.
Freshman year: 18.2 min., 3.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 2.3 apg, 15.0% 3FG
Gaddy did have a chance to start as a freshman, but he was often overmatched and failed to live up to his billing as a McDonald's and Parade All-American. It's too early to know if his numbers jump will hold (especially that three-point percentage, which is based on only six attempts), but I saw enough of him in high school to believe that Gaddy has a great future in this game. Keep in mind that he did not turn 18 until January 26, so he was young last season even for a freshman.
Freshman: 15.8 min., 5.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.6 blocks per game
I wondered if Henson should go in my too-obvious-to-choose list, but it just seems that between last year's disappointments and this year's arrival of Harrison Barnes, nobody has talked about Henson. He was terrific during the first three games, but only managed two points in Sunday's loss to Vanderbilt. Henson's freshman year turned around late last season when both he and coach Roy Williams realized just how foolish it was to try to play him on the perimeter. His rebound and blocks numbers are much-improved thus far, but the jury is still out on whether he's ready to be an impact player. Maybe next year I'll have to do a breakout juniors list for him.
Freshman: 23.1 min., 11.0 ppg, 1.0 apg, 48.3% 3FG
Jenkins' overall stats don't make a great case for a second-year leap, but his stat line from the Commodores' loss to West Virginia in Puerto Rico sure does: 27 points, 10-for-10 from the foul line, 5-for-11 from three. Jenkins has surprisingly struggled a bit with his long-range shooting, but I don't expect that to last. Without Aussie center A.J. Ogilvy to man the post, the Commodores will need Jenkins to have a big year.
Freshman: 12.5 min., 3.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 0.5 apg
McGruder is a good shooter as well as a silky, bouncy athlete. He reminds me a little bit of former Memphis guard Rodney Carney. McGruder is going to benefit the most from the graduation of Denis Clemente, because not only can he create points for himself and others, he is also a terrific perimeter defender. Through three games he is the Wildcats' leading rebounder and second-leading scorer.
Freshman: 23.4 min., 11.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.4 apg, 64.7% FG
As you can see, Nelson's minutes haven't gone up all that much, but the rest of his statistics have. Besides getting used to the physical rigors of college basketball, Nelson battled a variety of injuries last season, including a serious eye injury in February. I almost went with Nelson's classmate, Tyler Honeycutt, but I think Nelson is more of a leader who can help the Bruins in a lot of areas -- primarily on defense, where Nelson is tough, quick and smart enough to guard all five positions.
Freshman: 24.6 min., 5.0 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 53.8% FG
Oriakhi's rebound average looks inflated right now because he grabbed 18 boards in the home opener against Stony Brook. Unlike a lot of players on this list, Oriakhi started for most of last season, but even though he looks like a bruiser, offseason physicals revealed he had the weakest legs on the team. That should be much less of a problem in Year 2. Meanwhile, the real encouraging early sign is the improvement in Oriakhi's field goal percentage, because at this stage his offense is way behind his defense.
Freshman: 14.1 min., 3.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 0.9 apg, 46.2% FG
It's always a good sign when a sophomore's stats jump at a much higher proportion than his increase in minutes. Plumlee had a hard time recovering as a freshman after he missed the first six games with a wrist injury. But what really limited his playing time was the rapid improvement of senior center Brian Zoubek. With Zoubek gone, Plumlee can show off both his athleticism and understanding of the game. Notice how his assists have gone up, too. He is a good passer with a healthy nasty streak to boot.
Freshman: 11.3 min., 3.9 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 1.8 apg, 43.2% FG
Siva's numbers would be better if he hadn't fouled out in just 15 minutes in the Cardinals' big win over Butler in the opener. Obviously Siva will have to be more disciplined on defense, but now that Edgar Sosa is gone, it's time for Louisville to get some steady leadership from the most important position on the floor. Rick Pitino has already said he's giving Siva, a former McDonald's All-American from Seattle, the keys to drive his new high-octane offense. I think he's up to the task.
Freshman: 28.5 min., 12.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 37.5% FG
Watford is the kind of player for whom this list was invented. Though he was forced into playing more than he was prepared for last season, he was too often physically overpowered in the paint. He is much stronger now, which combined with his high skill level has him poised for a stellar season. Through the first four games, he is the Hoosiers' leading scorer and rebounder.
Freshman: 15.0 min., 6.8 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 1.3 apg
Lots of observers, including myself, have devoted much attention to senior Corey Fisher as the primary benefactor of Scottie Reynolds' graduation. Well, if Fisher is No. 1 in that department, then Wayns is 1A. He also may have the best pro future on this team because he is more of a pure point guard while Fisher is really an undersized two guard.
This was my best call on the board. Clark was an obscure player when I included him on my list, and he ended up being one of the most prolific three-point shooters in the Big East. His minutes increased from 18.3 per game as a freshman to 33.4, and his three-point percentage went from 34 percent to 42.4. So far this season, he is the Hoyas' second-leading scorer (15.8), draining 48.3 percent from three.
I wasn't that far off on Drew, but I didn't exactly nail it, either. His numbers did increase dramatically as he stepped in to replace Ty Lawson, but as the point guard he bore the brunt of responsibility for the Heels' dismal season. Unfortunately, he is off to a rocky start as a junior, averaging 3.8 points and shooting just 22.2 percent from the floor.
Joseph was a solid selection. Though he never quite cracked the starting lineup, he was voted the Big East's sixth man of the year after finishing third on the team in scoring, rebounding and steals.
I wasn't the only one envisioning a big leap forward for Morris, and he did not disappoint. He appears to be ready to undergo another upgrade this season, averaging 20 points on 72.7 percent shooting through the Jayhawks' first three games.
Mosley improved as predicted (his points, rebounds and assists all basically doubled), but while he is a solid player, he can hardly be considered a breakout star. Mosley had 14 points in the Terrapins' loss to Illinois last week, but his shooting percentages are way down across the board.
Roe was one of the nation's most highly regarded recruits coming out of St. Edward High in Lakewood, Ohio, but he missed most of his senior year and was never quite comfortable as a freshman. He seemed like a natural pick to break out as a sophomore, but he played most of the season with a meniscus tear in his right knee and made no palpable improvements. He had 15 points and five rebounds in the Spartans' win over South Carolina, but it will be a while until we know for sure whether Roe is finally ready to be the dominant frontcourt player that Tom Izzo recruited.
When I included Sacre on my list, he was coming off a foot injury that cost him most of his sophomore season, but he made the most of his opportunity for playing time last year. He went from averaging 9.3 minutes, 2.8 points and 1.8 rebounds as a freshman to averaging 25.3 minutes, 10.3 rebounds and 5.4 rebounds as a redshirt sophomore.
Taylor is an athletic player who put up good numbers last year, but they weren't much better than what he did as a freshman. The Swedish native is often talked about as a potential NBA first-round pick, but he made just one three-pointer all last year. Through four games this season, he has seven threes, so maybe that's a sign of good things to come.
As a freshman at Duke, Williams was a role player off the bench, but after he transferred to Memphis and got a waiver from the NCAA allowing him to play right away, he was a star. After leading the Tigers in scoring (17.9) and ranking second in rebounds (4.0) and assists (3.8), Williams entered the NBA draft, where he was selected in the first round by the Portland Trail Blazers.
This one was a total air ball. Woods' statistical improvement over his freshman season was insignificant, and his offseason was worse. Woods was arrested over the summer and charged with assault after reportedly pushing the mother of his infant son, causing her to fracture her spine. Wake Forest dismissed him from school, and he has since transferred to Louisville, where he will be eligible to play midway through next season.