Health Keys: Avoiding muscular injuries to Jose Reyes, keeping Hanley Ramirez intact, and finding some way to get 180 innings out of Josh Johnson.
(HEAD TRAINER: Sean Cunningham; FIVE YEAR RANK: 25; 2011 RANK: 22)
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|CF Emilio Bonifacio |
The risk for Bonifacio is that the Marlins fall for Yoenis Cespedes and bring him in to play CF. Bonifacio's still going to get plenty of time behind risky IFs Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez, so it's not a total loss.
RF Mike Stanton
The second thing you hear about Stanton is his amazing work ethic. He's not a high motor guy, just a hard worker, the type that will do things to avoid injury or rehab through them when they do happen. The System doesn't see that, but you should know it.
SP Mark Buehrle
Buehrle's about as automatic a 200-inning guy as there is in baseball. He'll do it until he doesn't, but as a lefty, that might not be until after his next contract. If he were graduating, he'd be "Most Likely To Be Jamie Moyer."
SP Ricky Nolasco
Statheads still love Nolasco, but so do hitters. He's serviceable, but hardly exciting, but there is value in having this kind of guy at the back of the rotation.
RP Steve Cishek
K/9s of 9 or more are pretty rare and fantasy gold. Cishek won't get saves, but Ozzie loves power arms and Cishek wasn't overused.
CL Heath Bell
He's both crazy and consistent. It's a good combination for closers.
1B Gaby Sanchez
2B Omar Infante
|C John Buck |
The worry last year was that Buck couldn't handle the additional workload he was going to have to take on. He did fine with that, but this year, the worry is that he'll be fatigued from it. I'm not that worried about it despite the risk The System sees.
LF Logan Morrison
Morrison's season was defined by a trip to New Orleans (AAA) he called punitive and a knee injury that didn't show up in the exit physical. In between, he tweeted about it and made more of an impact on the "Fan Cave" than opposing pitchers. At least Ozzie knows what Twitter is.
SP Anibal Sanchez
Sanchez followed a 195-inning 2010 with a 196-inning 2011. He's at least got stamina left in the shoulder and there's still some stuff in there, too. The further he gets from the injuries and workload of his past, the better, though few survive it this well.
P5 Carlos Zambrano
I won't pretend to know what to expect from Carlos Zambrano. He's a low yellow because The System doesn't know what to do with suspensions. The risk is probably lower, but remember, Zambrano was as overused as a young pitcher as Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. He survived, but there was a cost, and if his career was shortened by several years, that's hardly "less than." Dusty Baker lingers.
|SS Jose Reyes |
The biggest risk is that in the change from the Mets to the Marlins, there's some loss of knowledge. The Mets took care of Reyes' legs for good and for bad during his entire professional career. It's not like he's going to a top-rated franchise either. I worry most about the early stages of the season and as we get into the heat of the summer. The roof may end up helping Reyes.
3B Hanley Ramirez
Ramirez is coming off more shoulder issues and he'll be learning a new position. The inherent risk in that change is offset by the decreased risk once he gets comfortable at 3B. Sure, he may not like it there and a shift to CF is another option, but Ramirez isn't going to be affected by position as much as he is by the rehab work he's done in the past two offseasons. Most projections have him around his '10 level, but I think that's high based on his risk. (NumberFire agrees with me.)
SP Josh Johnson
Want to really worry? The Marlins still don't seem to know what's wrong with Johnson. "No structural damage" is the medical equivalent of "the check's in the mail" so don't feel too good about it. He's throwing long toss, but every time he got close last year, he ran into setbacks. This smells a lot like Brandon Webb's last few seasons to me. It seems like last season's great few starts might actually be upside for Johnson.