'Cuse on top; Baylor, OSU rise as UNC falls in latest Power Rankings
What happened to you, Big East? Three seasons ago, you produced three No. 1 seeds; this season, do you even have a team capable of upsetting Syracuse?
Last Week: 1
|shirts that commemorate the milestone, I guess it's permissible to indulge in the Undefeated Conversation. Here's how Syracuse's bid for regular-season perfection stacks up against Murray State's, using kenpom.com data: |
Syracuse Murray St.
Even though the kenpom numbers like UConn more than Cincinnati, Syracuse's toughest remaining game may really be on Monday against the Bearcats. Murray State's situation doesn't get real until the Feb. 25 visit to Tennessee Tech. Kenpom gives the Racers victory odds of 96, 96, 96, 96 and 95 percent in their next five games, so this topic isn't likely to die anytime soon.
Next three: 1/21 at Notre Dame, 1/23 at Cincinnati, 1/28 vs. West Virginia
Last Week: 2
(* I'm aware that Davis has 87 on the season. Only 81 of them were available in Synergy, though, so I had to make do.)
Next three: 1/21 vs. Alabama, 1/24 at Georgia, 1/28 at LSU
Last Week: 10
|higher percentage of opponents' shots (15.44) than does Kentucky's Davis (14.61). But compare the Withey block chart below to the Davis chart, and you'll see how Davis is a menace all over the court, whereas Withey is strictly a basket protector. Not that that's a bad thing: His shot-altering skills and Thomas Robinson's dominant defensive rebounding are the main reason KU is ranked this high. |
Next three: 1/21 at Texas, 1/23 vs. Texas A&M, 1/28 at Iowa State
Last Week: 6
Next three: 1/21 vs. Missouri, 1/24 at Oklahoma, 1/28 vs. Texas
Last Week: 7
|radio-show reaction to a caller questioning the senior shooting guard: "We've got to get some things shored up with him," Matta said, "because we do want the ball in his hands and we do want him making better decisions." Matta made the point that Buford is receiving much more defensive attention this season, but still, the drop-off in his efficiency has been significant. Here's a comparison of Buford's Big Ten numbers only from the past two seasons, over which the percentage of team shots he's taking has stayed pretty much the same (25.5 last year, 26.0 this year):|
Season ORtng 3PT% TO%
The huge jump in turnover percentage is alarming. While Buford is averaging a career-high 3.3 assists in conference play this year, he's committing 3.5 turnovers per game.
Next three: 1/21 at Nebraska, 1/25 vs. Penn State, 1/29 vs. Michigan
Last Week: 9
Team 2010-11 Current Change
Other than South Carolina, every slowdown on that list can be attributed to a coaching change.
Next three: 1/21 at Baylor, 1/25 at Oklahoma State, 1/28 vs. Texas Tech
Last Week: 3
|SI tournament preview story from 2001, Alex Wolff introduced the "blowout rule," which pointed out that only one team in the previous quarter-century -- North Carolina in 1993 -- had lost a game by more than 25 points and gone on to win a national title. The rule has held up through the 11 NCAA tournaments since Wolff's story, but should we trust it when filling out this year's brackets? |
I ask because the Tar Heels, my preseason pick to win it all, were slaughtered by 33 points at Florida State last Saturday. They should still win the ACC and earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, but is that loss to FSU a sign that UNC lacks the toughness to win it all ... I guess if anyone is going to break the blowout rule, it would be the team that last defied it, 19 years ago ? but for now, I'm more inclined to pick Kentucky as the 2012 champ.
Next three: 1/19 at Virginia Tech, 1/26 vs. NC State, 1/29 vs. Georgia Tech
Last Week: 8
Season Gms MPG ORtng 3PT%
If Dawkins stays hot and new starting point guard Quinn Cook continues to thrive -- both big ifs -- then Duke has a real shot at knocking off Carolina for the league title.
Next three: 1/19 vs. Wake Forest, 1/21 vs. Florida State, 1/25 vs. Maryland
Last Week: NR
|Breakout Formula picks from August, is leading the charge with his long-range shooting. |
Next three: 1/21 at West Virginia, 1/23 vs. Syracuse, 1/28 at Rutgers
• By W-L record: Illinois (4-1), Michigan (5-2).
• By overall kenpom rank: Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (3).
• By LRMC rating: Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (7).
• By Big Ten efficiency margin: Ohio State, Michigan State.
Ohio State's advanced-stats prowess is the reason they remain first among Big Ten teams in the PRs, and should emerge with the league title. After that, I honestly have no clue.
Next three: 1/21 vs. Purdue, 1/25 vs. Minnesota, 1/31 at Illinois
Last Week: 13
|did some tweaking to the concept of Value Add, which I played around with on a slow week over the summer, after seeing it on the Marquette blog Cracked Sidewalks. Cannon added a sliding usage scale to the concept of "replacement value" and removed the minutes-played component of John Pudner's original formula. The new metric identifies these six players as having the most offensive value-over-replacement in 2011-12:|
1. Damian Lillard, Weber State
2. Doug McDermott, Creighton
3. Kenny Boynton, Florida
4. Isaiah Canaan, Murray State
5. Reggie Hamilton, Oakland
6. Mike Scott, Virginia
Major-conference players -- the Jared Sullingers and Kevin Joneses of the world -- are likely to move up the list by season's end, because it adjusts for strength-of-defense faced. It's not an end-all metric, but at the moment it claims that Scott is the most valuable go-to guy in the ACC.
Next three: 1/19 at Georgia Tech, 1/22 vs. Virginia Tech, 1/26 vs. Boston College
Next three: 1/21 at Arkansas, 1/24 at Purdue, 1/29 at Ohio State
Team 2010-11 Current Change
The Bluejays' offensive breakthrough -- they're now one of the nation's top 10 most efficient teams -- coincided with a jump in tempo in coach Greg McDermott's second season. What's curious is that when he left the Missouri Valley in 2006, his last team at Northern Iowa was one of the nation's slowest, at 60.9 possessions per game -- almost the stylistic opposite of his current Creighton squad.
Next three: 1/21 vs. Indiana State, 1/25 at Drake, 1/28 vs. Bradley
Last Week: NR
Next three: 1/21 vs. Air Force, 1/24 at Wyoming, 1/28 at Colorado State
Last Week: 15
|a coal-baron alum and his associates gave $7 million for a basketball dorm that will be called the Wildcat Coal Lodge and have a "coal tribute" in the lobby. It was not unanimously well-received. Wednesday night's West Virginia-Marshall game in Charleston, W.V. featured an atrociously busy "Friends of Coal" logo at halfcourt:|
When news broke that the coal lobby had purchased the court for $82,000, controversy ensued. Murray State: No matter what you get offered -- a court, a dorm, a charter plane for the rest of your undefeated tour -- don't sell out to the special interests!
Next three: 1/21 at SIU Edwardsville, 1/28 vs. Eastern Illinois, 2/2 vs. SE Missouri St.
Next three: 1/21 vs. New Mexico, 1/25 at Boise State, 1/28 at Air Force
The Next 16: 17. Georgetown,18. Florida,19. St. Mary's,20. Illinois,21. Wichita State,22. West Virginia,23. UConn,24. Indiana,25. Vanderbilt,26. Marquette,27. Seton Hall,28. Wisconsin,29. New Mexico,30. Xavier,31. Temple,32. Alabama