Rested, experienced, balanced, intelligent, disciplined and potent, San Antonio is a nightmare matchup for any opponent, particularly one struggling with team-wide inconsistency and, possibly, a series-altering health concern in the form of Dwyane Wade's ailing knee. This remains Miami's series to lose, if only because of LeBron James' continued brilliance, but San Antonio makes for a steady, special underdog that's well positioned to upset the reigning champions.
As fantastic as the Spurs are, their big men won't be able to force the Heat out of their comfort zone. Tim Duncan should have a great series, and Tiago Splitter will be essential in guarding the rim. But neither is enough of a low-block threat nor so prolific an offensive rebounder as to push Miami away from what it does best.
Even with that in mind, this should be a wonderfully competitive series. Tony Parker remains one of the postseason's unsolvable problems, and with his shooting and penetration the Spurs should pose a considerable challenge. But the fact that Miami has the best player on the floor and will likely play in its preferred style doesn't bode well for San Antonio. All of that tilts the series slightly in the Heat's favor.