2015 NBA Mock Draft 2.0: Projecting the first round with lottery order set

Author:
Chris Mannix
Publish date:
May 20, 2015

The big winner from this year's NBA draft lottery? The Minnesota Timberwolves, who will add a third No. 1 overall pick to their roster. A close second were the Los Angeles Lakers, who will have a chance to add a franchise player to succeed Kobe Bryant.

The big loser? The New York Knicks, who after mailing in the second half of the season and finishing with the NBA’s second-worst record will pick fourth overall. That’s what the franchise gets for sending GM Steve Mills, not Phil Jackson, to the lottery.

Without further ado, let's get to my Mock Draft 2.0. Here are my first-round projections now that the lottery is set.

• MORE NBA: Analysis: Wolves win lottery | Draft rumors | Combine chatter

1. Minnesota Timberwolves

RECORD: Kentucky, Freshman | 6-11, 250

• SI ROUNDTABLE: Okafor or Towns at No. 1?

2. Los Angeles Lakers

RECORD: Duke, freshman | 6-11, 270

• MORE NBA: Kobe, players react to lottery results

3. Philadelphia 76ers

RECORD: China, Age 19 | 6-5, 190

Here’s where the draft gets a little murky. The Sixers need a playmaker; two potential elite ones are on the board. Mudiay is unknown—he spent an injury riddled season in China—but he is an explosive point guard cut out of the mold of Russell Westbrook. Expect Philadelphia to go back and forth on Mudiay and Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell.

4. New York Knicks

RECORD: Ohio State, freshman | 6-5, 180

Steve Mills's face said it all. Fourth? The Knicks GM certainly expected better after his team effectively tanked the second half of the season. Still, grabbing Russell, a gifted playmaker, is far from a consolation prize. Russell reads defenses like a five-year veteran and thrives in transition. Can he learn—and excel—in the triangle? That’s a more difficult question.

5. Orlando Magic

RECORD: Latvia, Age 19 | 6-11, 209

Comparisons coming out of Porzingis’s camp are lofty: Kevin Garnett. Porzingis isn’t as skilled of a post player as KG, but he is a legitimate stretch four, athletic with a fluid shooting stroke. Porzingis will need a year to bulk up but he has enormous potential.

6. Sacramento Kings

RECORD: Wisconsin, senior | 7-0, 234

Too high for Kaminsky? First you have to identify what his major flaws are. Kaminsky is a smooth shooting big who can score off the dribble and from beyond the three-point line. The Kings have a gaping hole at power forward, and Kaminsky could complement DeMarcus Cousins nicely. There are issues defensively, but few better scoring options for George Karl’s offense.

7. Denver Nuggets

RECORD: Duke, freshman | 6-6, 225

Here’s what we know about the Nuggets: They want to play fast again. Here is what we know about Winslow: He is excellent in transition. Winslow’s size could be an issue, but a strong NCAA tournament run with Duke opened eyes and revealed a more complete game. That will help Denver, which needs a few more complete players.

8. Detroit Pistons

RECORD: Arizona, Freshman | 6-7, 245

Detroit has a sizeable hole at small forward and Johnson, a defensive-minded swingman who has evoked comparisons—at least physically—to Metta World Peace, looks like a nice fit. Johnson needs polish offensively but he made 37.1% of his three’s last season, far better than many scouts predicted. Myles Turner is a candidate here, too.

9. Charlotte Hornets

RECORD: Kentucky, freshman | 6-6, 206

One of the bigger surprises of the combine was Booker; not because of how he played (he didn’t) but executives' opinion of him. Several execs identified Booker as the best shooting prospect in the draft. The Hornets—last in three-point shooting last season—need a perimeter threat to take pressure off of Al Jefferson.

10. Miami Heat

RECORD: Texas, freshman | 6-11, 240

11. Indiana Pacers

RECORD: Croatia, Age 20 | 6-8, 201

Larry Bird telling Willie Cauley-Stein he was a $100 million player was one of two things: A smokescreen—why would the Pacers jump at a defensive minded center—or (another) message to Roy Hibbert to opt. A pick closer to reality is Hezonja, a sweet shooting two-guard who could emerge as a starter next season.

12. Utah Jazz

RECORD: Kentucky, freshman | 6-10, 235

After years of having a surplus of bigs, Utah needs help there. Lyles isn’t as advanced offensively as his UK teammate, Towns, but he is a solid face-up power forward who has shown flashes of a decent perimeter game. If the Jazz prefer a more NBA-ready forward, another Lyles teammate, Willie Cauley-Stein, is a candidate here, too.

13. Phoenix Suns

RECORD: Kentucky, Junior | 7-0, 240

The Suns would love an offensive-oriented big to fall to them here. Cauley-Stein is limited offensively, but he is a versatile defender who can help solve the Suns' rebounding problems. And he is the most NBA-ready big man in the draft.

14. Oklahoma City Thunder

RECORD: Murray State, Sophomore | 6-2, 180

There was a measurable buzz around Payne at the draft combine in Chicago, with executives seeing a natural playmaker who blends scoring and distributing well. Payne is a little undersized, but the Thunder can patiently develop what could be a quality backup to Russell Westbrook.

15. Atlanta Hawks (via Nets)

RECORD: Arkansas, Sophomore | 6-11, 240

Portis’s greatest strength: He competes like crazy. Executives love his relentless motor, which complements a diverse skill set. Portis is terrific in transition and is a strong floor-spacing big man prospect. The Hawks also love perimeter shooting big men.

16. Boston Celtics

RECORD: Wisconsin, junior | 6-9, 220

Some intriguing freshmen are on the board here—Kevon Looney, Kelly Oubre—that could appeal to Celtics GM Danny Ainge. For now, pencil in Dekker, who tested extremely well athletically at the combine and, more importantly, shot well from three-point range. Dekker has an NBA body that executives love.

17. Milwaukee Bucks

RECORD: Georgia State, Junior | 6-6, 190

A postseason appearance accelerated Milwaukee’s youth movement, but there are still holes. The Bucks need a pivot, though drafting a five here would be a stretch. Expect Milwaukee to grab a swingman like Hunter, one of the draft’s best shooters, a nice fit to develop behind Khris Middleton.

18. Houston Rockets

RECORD: Kansas, Freshman| 6-7, 200

Oubre is raw and struggled last season in the role of Andrew Wiggins' replacement. But he has tremendous physical tools and a shooting stroke scouts like a lot. In time, Oubre could develop into an elite defender. Oubre is likely destined for the D-League next season, but the Rockets have enough depth to wait for him to develop.

19. Washington Wizards

RECORD: UCLA, Freshman | 6-9, 220

Nene is 32 years old and entering the final year of his contract. Looney isn’t ready to play yet—the word “project” was attached to him by several executives at the combine—but he has tremendous physical tools and is a rugged rebounding prospect. Looney could be a nice long-term investment in D.C.

20. Toronto Raptors

RECORD: Duke, Freshman | 6-1, 190

Jones was among the most impressive players in interviews at the combine, showing uncanny polish, a demeanor that mirrors Jones’s play on the floor. The Raptors targeted a point guard in the first round last season—Phoenix grabbed Tyler Ennis before they could—and will do the same this year.

21. Dallas Mavericks

RECORD: Louisville, Junior | 6-8, 240

The Mavs need a point guard, and Utah’s Delon Wright is a candidate here. But Harrell—a high motor scorer/rebounder with an NBA body—could be tough to pass up for a team that will eventually need to start thinking of life after Dirk Nowtizki.

22. Chicago Bulls

RECORD: UNLV, Sophomore | 6-11, 220

The rapidly developing Wood is a bit of a risk here—Justin Anderson or Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, two defensive-minded players, are safer picks—but the Bulls need frontcourt offense and Wood has terrific inside-out potential. He won’t play much in his first year, maybe two, but he has an enormous upside.

23. Portland Trail Blazers

RECORD: UNLV, Freshman | 6-6, 210

With Wesley Matthews' future uncertain and Aaron Afflalo headed for free agency, Vaughn, a solid scorer for the Rebels last season with a diverse offensive skill set, is a solid choice.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers

RECORD: Arizona, Sophomore | 6-6, 220

The Cavs add a defensive-minded wing as insurance in case Iman Shumpert becomes too pricey to bring back next season.

25. Memphis Grizzlies

RECORD: Notre Dame, Senior | 6-5, 202

It’s tough to get a read on Grant’s stock. He’s polished and isn’t short on confidence. But he’s older (22) and teams don’t know if he’s a true point guard. He could go anywhere between 15-25. If he’s on the low end, Memphis will happily scoop him up and plug Grant into its backcourt rotation.

26. San Antonio Spurs

RECORD: Virginia, Junior | 6-6, 227

The Spurs are always on the lookout for value and Anderson—an NBA-ready defender with a powerful physique—could develop into a steal if his offensive game comes along.

27. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)

RECORD: Utah, Senior | 6-5, 190

If the Lakers draft Okafor, the next biggest hole is at point guard. Enter Wright, a big, savvy playmaker who plays unselfishly and could provide L.A. with minutes next season. He’s an excellent defender, which the Lakers could badly use in the backcourt.

28. Boston Celtics

RECORD: Bulgaria, Age 19 | 6-9, 225

Keep an eye on Vezenkov. International scouts like him, often citing his jumper and skills in transition as strengths. This is a luxury pick for Boston; the Celtics could stash a quality European prospect with a nice upside for a year or two. Syracuse's Chris McCullough is a strong candidate here, too.

29. Brooklyn Nets (via Hawks)

RECORD: Syracuse, Freshman | 6-10, 220

An ACL injury in January crippled McCullough’s stock. Pre-injury, McCullough was an athletic, shot-blocking forward with a sound shooting stroke. If he lives up to his potential, he could be a steal here.

30. Golden State Warriors

RECORD: LSU, Sophomore | 6-10, 236

An athletic combo forward who can face up and attack the basket? For a Warriors team that could have decisions to make on Draymond Green and David Lee this summer, Martin could provide needed depth.

• GALLERY: Teams that beat the draft lottery odds over the years

Beating the NBA Draft Lottery Odds

1993 Orlando Magic

1993-NBA-Draft-Anfernee-Penny-Hardaway-Chris-Webber.jpg — Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

No team beat the odds quite like the 1993 Magic, who, after barely missing the playoffs at 41-41, made good on their 1.5% chance (1 Ping-Pong ball out of 66) to claim the top spot for the second consecutive season (they had snagged Shaquille O'Neal in '92). Orlando wound up selecting Chris Webber and trading him to Golden State for third overall pick Penny Hardaway and three first-round picks. Two years later, Shaq and Penny led the Magic to the NBA Finals.

1995 Golden State Warriors

After the Warriors delivered on their 9.4% chance, then-general manager Dave Twardzik said, ''Whoever you take, some people are going to say, 'How could pass on this [other] guy?' '' Twardzik experienced the second-guessing first-hand: The Warriors chose forward Joe Smith while the rest of the top five was Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett. Smith went on to play for 12 different NBA teams over 15 years, never once named an All-Star.

2000 New Jersey Nets

Pegged to draft seventh after a 31-51 season, the Nets instead cashed in on their 4.4% chance of winning the lottery. New Jersey picked forward Kenyon Martin, who proved to be a key part of back-to-back Finals teams in 2002-03 before being shipped to Denver as part of a sign-and-trade deal in 2004.

2002 Houston Rockets

An 8.9% chance was enough for the Rockets to leapfrog four teams and win the Yao Ming sweepstakes. Yao was productive when healthy, but the healthy part didn't happen nearly as much as Houston would have hoped. The 7-6 center retired in July 2011 after nine seasons in which he averaged 19 points, 9.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks.

2005 Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks, with a 6.3% chance, jumped from sixth to first and selected center Andrew Bogut ahead of point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams. Bogut spent seven years with the Bucks, where he led the league with 2.6 blocks in 2010-11, before being traded to Golden State in 2012.

2006 Toronto Raptors

General manager Bryan Colangelo entered his first draft in Toronto with the biggest prize after the Raptors vaulted to the top despite only an 8.8% likelihood. The Raptors used the choice to make Italy's Andrea Bargnani the NBA's first European No. 1 pick. Bargnani averaged a career-high 21.4 points in 2010-11 and followed that with 19.5 points in an injury-shortened 2011-12, but he's been criticized for his defense and rebounding. In 2013 Bargnani was traded to the Knicks, where injuries have kept him off the court more often than not. The Nets signed Bargnani to a multi-year contract in 2015, only to waive him in Feb. 2016.

2007 Portland Trail Blazers

While the teams with the three worst records — Memphis, Boston and Milwaukee — got the fourth, fifth and six picks, Portland won the lottery with its 5.3% chance. The windfall didn't pay off, however, as the Trail Blazers passed on Kevin Durant in favor of Greg Oden, who played only 82 regular-season games over his first five seasons because of persistent knee injuries. The Blazers waived Oden in March 2012 and after a brief stint with Miami two years later, Oden hasn't played since.

2008 Chicago Bulls

The Bulls turned their 1.7% chance into the first pick. Chicago selected native Derrick Rose, who was the 2008-09 Rookie of the Year, the league MVP in 2010-11 and a three-time All-Star. Since May 2012, however, Rose has undergone three knee surgeries which have caused him to miss a significant amount of time.

2011 Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers used the pick obtained in a trade with the Clippers to win the No. 1 pick despite just 2.8% odds. That put them in position to draft Duke point guard Kyrie Irving, who turned into the Rookie of the Year and the centerpiece of their post-LeBron rebuilding effort. The 2013, '14 and '15 All-Star was given some help entering the 2014-15 season with the signing of free agent LeBron James.

2014 Cleveland Cavaliers

Eight teams had better odds than the Cavaliers, who lucked out yet again with just a 1.7% chance this time. Their selection of Andrew Wiggins parlayed into a trade with Minnesota to acquire Kevin Love two months later. Wiggins went on to win Rookie of the Year with the Timberwolves while Love's numbers dipped with the Cavs and he suffered a dislocated shoulder in the team's 2015 first-round sweep of the Celtics.