Elite fantasy wide receivers often are overlooked on draft day
If we said free agency and quarterback shakeups are going to affect the rankings of QBs and running backs, you have to figure it certainly will impact the wide receivers.
We continue our initial SI.com fantasy football rankings with the wide receivers, easily the most volatile position in the game. It is such a volatile position -- one dictated by circumstances, game scores and the supporting cast -- it is one we suggest you don't put a premium on early in your drafts.
You're likely to be disappointed, especially because so much value can be had late. Heck, last year's No. 1 fantasy WR, Brandon Lloyd, wasn't even thought of by fantasy analysts (or players) last summer.
Before the bazaar, here's how with tier the bizarre position:
There aren't a lot of sure things with receivers; in fact, this elite tier combined has finished atop WR rankings in a standard league just once -- Johnson in 2009. He and White are 1-2 in three-year averages. This trio all has improving quarterbacks, so it is conceivable they all put a complete season together in '11.
It is not a good idea to pick a WR in Round 1 outside of Point-Per-Reception (PPR) leagues, but these are your candidates to eschew an RB or QB in the first round.
If the WR position remains volatile at the top, here are the only other candidates we can see making the jump up to be the highest-scoring at the position in a standard league. All six of these guys have a decent case for the top tier, but there is some kind of factor dragging each of them down.
Wayne is the elder statesman of this group. Jennings was quiet for the first month or so a year ago. Nicks hasn't proven capable of being healthy for 16 games. Fitzgerald needs a new passer. Bowe doesn't have year-to-year consistency. Finally, Jackson is an incredible player-maker, but Jeremy Maclin's emergence cut into his numbers slightly and he could be a bit frail and prone to injury.
There is a difference between being a team's primary threat and a No. 1 fantasy WR. You need to have that elite QB throwing you the pill. These guys have it. Of these, only Maclin isn't his team's true primary target -- that's Jackson -- but like we said above, they each cut into each other to keep one from being a candidate for the best receiver in fantasy.
14.Mike Williams TB
A standard 12-team, two-WR league will go this deep on options to be truly trusted starters. In this format, though, you're better off missing this whole tier. Filling the other positions with premium players will serve you better, because the next tier of WRs can be just as good.
Like the third tier, these guys have some warts, but they are not glaring enough to keep them from slotting as starters to open the year. This is the group that could get a significant upgrade if teams like Miami or Minnesota get a veteran quarterback. If Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb wind up in either of these places, Marshall, Rice and Harvin could move up a tier -- or even two.
25. Mario Manningham NYG
There is not a whole lot of hope of these guys being premium fantasy options this season -- for various reasons -- but they figure to be trustworthy starters in leagues that feature three wideouts or the flex (non-QBs) position.
There is talent here, but they are either banged up (Ochocinco), old (Smith and Branch), without a QB (Britt and Moss) or an unproven rookie (Green). Green has great upside, but the uncertainty of Ochocinco and Palmer keeps him out of the top 35. He enters the season barely a starter in three-WR formats.
37. Julio Jones ATL
The second rookie, Jones, kicks off this list and has perhaps a better chance than Green to become a featured part of the offense sooner. Jones is going to spread the field for the No. 2 overall White and give an elite QB in Matt Ryan another option to pile up big numbers in what should be a breakthrough year.
This group doesn't figure to have an every-week starter, but there are some useful fantasy furniture pieces here. The Giants' Smith could have a bounce-back year coming off injury, and Breaston could be a factor if a promising QB like Kevin Kolb joins him in the desert.
We're slipping Burress into this group, because his free agency figures to slot him in a contender's system and he will get the chance to pick his QB. The guess here is he won't pick a place where he will be a bit player and he figures to be smart enough to pick a good QB -- even if he wasn't smart enough to register his handgun in New York.
51. Roy Williams DAL
To close out the draftable receivers, we have some has-beens and maybe will-bes. Avery is the most intriguing of this group because his QB, Sam Bradford, made good with a lot of lesser talent in Avery's absence last year, including Amendola. If Avery is healthy, he could elevate to be an every-week fantasy starter.
61. Jacoby Ford OAK
Unlike the RB position, these players are unlikely to gain significant value before Kickoff Weekend. Secondary receivers don't quite suddenly because fantasy starters just because they become starters or primary targets. Even a QB upgrade might merely make them draftable.
There is something to be said about even being on the radar to start the season, though. Last year's No. 1, Lloyd wasn't even in this group -- perhaps a sign this group extends far beyond 80.