You know, folks, it ain't easy betting the NFL. Just look at any newspaper where so-called insiders pick games against the spread. Very few of these, uh, experts are even right half the time, and you really need to hit 55 percent winners to break even, because the house or the bookie needs his vigorish. No, to win betting against the spread, you need a real edge.
Like ... sleep. As I said, stay tuned.
The point spread was created by a former math teacher named Charles K. McNeil, who opened a bookmaking operation in the 1940s, offering what he called "wholesaling odds." Instead of taking bets on a team to win as you would a horse in a race -- getting six to one or seven-to-two, whatever -- McNeil, in effect, borrowed the handicap from golf, giving so many imaginary points to the underdog, so the gambler could eschew complicated odds and make an even bet on any game -- in the vernacular, taking the points or giving them. Jimmy the Greek popularized what had become known as "the spread" on TV in the 70s.
Okay, stay awake.
In his book about sleep, Dreamland, the author David Randall reports on a football study at Stanford. Now what we know is that, typically, human energy flags during the day, but for some primordial reason, picks up again around 6:00 p.m. By 10 p.m., though, the sandman has started his siren song.
Now, a few times each NFL season, an Eastern team plays a Western team in a night game. For television reasons, all the games start around 8:30 p.m., Eastern time. That means, for an East Coast home game, the West Coast players still have their body clocks set at 5:30 p.m. -- ready to perk up, as the Eastern boys will soon run down. If the West Coast team is home, same thing -- it's 5:30 for the Pacific boys, but the Atlantic guys' body-clocks are 8:30.
Follow me? It doesn't matter where the game is played, the West Coast bodies are coming to life as the East Coast bodies are feeling nature's circadian cues to sleep.
And guess what the researchers found? Over a quarter-century span, the West Coast teams beat the East an amazing 70 percent of the time against the spread. Hello! Seventy per cent!
Okay, write this down and call your bookie. This Sunday night, Detroit plays at San Francisco. On December 16th, the 49ers">49ers play at New England. On December 23rd, San Diego plays the Jets in New Jersey.
Hey, I'm giving you people winners. So Sunday, take San Francisco and give six and a half points, then stay awake and cash in.