Thursday October 8th, 2015

The NFL kicks off Week 5 of the schedule with an AFC South matchup featuring the Houston Texans hosting the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday night.

The line opened as a pick ‘em, but the Texans emerged as a 1-point favorite over the course of the short week at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. The point total is set at 45. The moneyline has the Texans between -115 and -120, and the Colts between +105 and -105.

The reason for the odd lines is the status of Andrew Luck. The Colts quarterback missed Week 4 due to a right shoulder injury. He has been limited in practice this week, and is listed as questionable. He is expected to play, but remains a game-time decision.

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Cornerback Vontae Davis is also listed as questionable due to a foot injury. He sat out the full week of practice. Safety Mike Adams and defensive linemen Henry Anderson and Kendall Langford are all questionable after missing practice time this week. The Colts will be without linebacker Jerrell Freeman, who is out with a groin injury.

The Texans will be without safety Quintin Demps, inside linebacker Akeem Dent and wide receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington. All four have been ruled out for Week 5. Outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus is questionable with a thigh injury.

The Colts are 2–2 SU but 0–4 ATS through the first four games of the season. They are 4-0-1 ATS against the Texans over their last five matchups according to the OddsShark NFL Database, and 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 divisional games. They are 3–6 ATS in their last nine road games against the Texans.

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The Texans are 1–3 SU and ATS thus far this season. The Texans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five total games against the Colts, and 1–5 ATS in their last six divisional home games. The last time the Texans were favored against the Colts was in 2012.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Colts’ last eleven games, and six of their last seven road games. It has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine games between these two teams, but OVER in eight of the last 10 between the two teams in Houston. The OddsShark Computer is projecting a 25.2–19.4 Texans win. That would provide for the Texans cover and just barely the UNDER.


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