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Why Both Hope and Skepticism are Warranted with Drew Lock
The Denver Broncos have found an answer at the quarterback position. After two games, and two wins, 2019 second-round pick Drew Lock has given the Broncos and the fans something that has evaded this franchise for the past four seasons; hope.
Throwing for a 72.7% completion percentage (40-of-55), for 443 yards, a 5-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio, a quarterback rating of 111.4 and a QBR of 83.3, the beginning to Lock’s NFL career could not be off to a much better statistical start.
Yes, the Broncos have found an answer at the quarterback position, but have they found the guy? Now, that is the right question.
Fly in the Ointment
Despite the ‘buzz’ surrounding the peaks in Lock’s play over the last two games, with obvious arm talent and more than adequate athleticism for the quarterback position, there have been some deficiencies that popped up in reviewing the tape. From missing some throws via his field vision and a raw understanding of anticipatory throws, to not playing with uniform replicated footwork in his drop-back within the pocket (specifically when feeling pressure), Lock has not been perfect in his methods on his route to starting 2-0.
Some of the questions that surrounded his profile coming out of college that likely resulted in his slide out of the first round still show up when reviewing the tape — a strong-armed rookie gunslinger who had some mechanical and mental processing concerns coming out of college, which isn’t perfect in reviewing the tape after his first two career starts? Who could have foreseen this?
He must just be getting lucky. To quote Buzz Lightyear, anyone hanging on the negatives while ignoring the positives is very likely “a sad, strange little man (or woman), and you have my pity.”
In reality, given the deficiencies Lock had coming out of college, the progress he has shown through two games should give fans hope, as opposed to dunking on pre-draft takes via confirmation bias. While his footwork still needs to be cleaned up and consistent from a snap-to-snap basis, that is true for many quarterbacks in the NFL.
Even many of the upper echelon of passers, such as Patrick Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers, do not always play by the book when it comes to their mechanical processes and decision making. Those two’s resumes speak for themselves.
Lock will very likely continue to show some technical deficiencies as the season progresses. He is going to miss some passes because he wasn’t balanced within the pocket and instead fading back under pressure.
Sometimes he will hit those throws, but from a technical aspect, this limits how accurate he can be in his process. He will also have some throws that in hindsight will lead to major head-scratching from fans and critics alike. Like many young quarterbacks with upper-tier natural arm talent, Lock will have issues in his ability to anticipate players breaking open, instead of leaning on more of a ‘see it, throw it’ method when it comes to open receivers.
Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop
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The Lock criticism is justified. He isn’t perfect, and quite frankly after two starts, he should be met with ‘some’ skepticism. Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones started extremely hot this season, only to see their play regress a bit as opposing teams gathered information and exploited emerging weaknesses.
Baker Mayfield, who looked like a world-beater last season when he began for the Cleveland Browns, has regressed this season to a form more reminiscent of his junior year at Oklahoma, compared to his senior year where he won the Heisman. Sample size is key, and growth is not linear.
Lock is going to have a bad game at some point. There is no 'ifs, ands or buts' about it. That is the nature of the gunslinger. He will make a throw that makes a stadium’s collective jaw hit the floor, followed by an eyebrow-raising decision the next play.
Similar in nature to that of the all-time NFL interception leader Brett Favre, one lives with the mistakes (to an extent) as long as the good outweighs the bad. However, given the limited sample size, and some concerning deficiencies in Lock’s game, should Broncos Country be pumping the brakes in their excitement for the rookie quarterback?
Exceeding Early Expectations
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While there are many valid reasons to nitpick Lock’s performances through his first two games, there is no doubt he is providing a much needed shot in the arm for the Broncos offense. On top of the fact that, yes, Lock is a quarterback that has already shown improvement in his mechanics, resulting in better velocity and placement.
Credit his pre-draft quarterback coach or credit Rich Scangarello and T.C. McCartney, Lock is already showing improvements that warrant excitement and pondering of just how good the kid can become. Scangarello, in his press conference from Thursday, indicated as much.
“Drew Lock has worked very hard," Scangarello said. "He has changed his throwing mechanics since college, and it is showing up on tape. His feet are in the ground, he’s throwing with a great base and it’s why he’s not retreating all the time. He’s throwing the ball more accurately, he’s throwing the ball more confidently, he likes our footwork and he’s bought into it.”
Now that the talk about the concerns regarding Lock have been addressed, let’s talk about why he very much should be the guy in Denver going forward, at least heading into the 2020 season. First off, it’s simply the tools that Lock possesses.
After years of watching quarterbacks with such limited tools such as Trevor Siemian, Case Keenum, and Joe Flacco, it is incredibly obvious that Lock possesses a combination of arm talent and athleticism that are becoming more and more of a requirement to succeed in today’s NFL. Having tools to fall back on helps give the quarterback a bit of leeway over the course of their developmental curve early in their career.
For example, two highly-drafted quarterbacks that have shown the best early to start their careers in likely MVP Lamar Jackson and the probably playoff-bound Josh Allen had plenty of detractors during the pre-draft process as well as early in their careers. Both of these quarterbacks have a lot of games left to truly determine where they will land in the history of quarterbacks, but both had questions about mechanics, anticipation, and accuracy that could limit just how good they could become in the league.
Are they Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? Absolutely not, but given the arm talent and mobility and just overall tools in the tool chest both possess, they are able to not only get by but exceed on the field as the mechanical and mental aspects of their games catch up.
Borderline Excellent Tools
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Lock doesn’t have the blazing speed of Jackson, nor the Cam Newton-esque skill-set of Allen, but there is no doubt he has a semblance of physical abilities that border on excellent. He can hit throws from a variety of different throwing angles and off different platforms, he can challenge defenses with his legs and evade pass rushers if his O-line fails him, and has the ability to hit every throw any offensive coordinator could scheme up.
The things he can do off-script along with the overall package of tools can lead to good results, even if the nitty-gritty details of the process are not always clean. Such as the early failures of another 2019 first-round pick Josh Rosen, a quarterback can have beautiful mechanics and be considered cerebral, but still fail and be dependent on the scheme, coaching, and talent around him if he just doesn’t have the tools to make magic happen on his own on any given play.
Due to these physical tools, even if Lock never totally straightens out issues he sometimes displays in his decision-making, field vision/processing, anticipatory throws, and consistency in his lower body mechanics, the ability to fall back on his raw talent is there and will be able to carry him and the offense from time-to-time. The hope is that over time, these ‘weaknesses’ will be ironed out and improve with time on task.
It’s the classic cycle of many franchise quarterbacks. Early on, the tools carry the player while they put in the work, compete and improve. This leads to their golden years where both the physical and mental side of the game are high. Eventually, the tools begin to fade with time but the growth and experience in the mental game help compensate for the lessening arm talent and mobility.
Of course, there have been plenty of quarterbacks with ample tools to succeed in the league that simply did not get it done. Paxton Lynch was a big athlete with a big arm. He showed that on tape over and over again at Memphis.
Jay Cutler, while possessing an absolutely incredible arm and solid athleticism, never was able to grow beyond his perceived ‘potential’. So why do these quarterbacks with amazing tools tend to fail?
Almost always, some aspect of immaturity, work ethic, competitiveness, and/or leadership play a role.
The Intangibles
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According to Urban Meyer, a long-time successful college coach, there are five things he looks for in a quarterback: competitive spirit, toughness, leadership, intelligence, and the ability to extend plays. Every great quarterback Meyer had was the most competitive guy on his team.
He was the toughest guy, both mentally and physically. Intelligence matters because not only does the quarterback have to coordinate his offensive teammates, but understand what the defense is doing on every single play. Leadership is non-negotiable as that quarterback must be able to pick up and raise the level of those around him.
For the ability to extend plays, there are so many different dancing parts on any given play and quality opponents on the other side that things can and will go wrong, so a quarterback that can extend a play and create when things breakdown, is bordering on a ‘must-have’ in the landscape of today’s NFL.
A Spark
There have been ample quarterbacks with all the talent in the world that have failed because they did not possess these qualities needed to succeed at the quarterback position. Yes, it is only a two-game sample size in the NFL, but the energy difference watching the offense is obvious.
The teammates believe in Lock and despite being a rookie, given the overall youth of this offense, are starting to recognize Lock for his competitiveness, toughness, leadership, and intelligence, on top of his flashes to extend plays and create when the opportunity calls for it.
Lock may very well end up the guy for the Broncos, giving the team their first long-term solution at quarterback since No. 7 zipped the ball around the field at old Mile High Stadium. He just as easily could not be the answer, and instead a solid but not great quarterback with deficiencies in his mechanics and processing, leading to scattershot accuracy and questionable decision-making.
Dare to be Excited
With just a two-game sample size under his belt, it’s impossible to know just where Lock’s career will go from this point forward. That said, why not be excited about the future of this team and it’s potential with Lock under center?
The Broncos have a system that appears to be made for Lock under Scangarello, a very exciting duo of pass weapons in Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, an offensive line that can only improve under Hall-of-Famer Mike Munchak, and ample salary cap room and draft capital to continue to build around Lock. He is already showing strides in his mechanics resulting in better precision of his throws and improving processing, even if he is still a gunslinger at heart.
Lock has the ability to create, impressive raw arm talent coming from a quick compact delivery, all while possessing the non-negotiable intangibles needed to succeed in the league for many years. Will the results always be perfect? No. Is he going to make some mistakes? You better believe it.
Can he and does he need to improve? Yes. Can he be the guy? That is yet to be determined. It’s just as fine to believe in him based on the flashes and upside as much as it is fine to be skeptical given some inconsistent processes and the small two-game sample size to date.
Bottom Line
Either way, there is little doubt Lock has the ingredients necessary to be a franchise quarterback for the Broncos. Even if he fails to replicate his game against the Texans over the final three weeks, he has shown enough to warrant being the fully-supported starter for the 2020 season.
Anything beyond that is a wait and see proposition. There is no question Lock has the makeup to finally be the answer for Denver at quarterback. If he is the guy, the upside for Lock and the Broncos is quite literally ‘to infinity and beyond.”
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
