The single biggest reason for the Browns 2-4 start
If one was going to boil down the reason for the Cleveland Browns 2-4 start into a single statistic, it would be their -5 turnover differential. Baker Mayfield has thrown 11 interceptions and lost a fumble, so he's averaging a pair of turnovers per game, which makes it incredibly difficult to win. Not surprisingly, the teams that are performing the best in turnover differential are some of the best in the league including the New England Patriots at +9 and Green Bay Packers at +7, who are a combined 10-1. The teams at the bottom of the list include the winless Miami Dolphins at -9 and 2-4 New York Giants at -7.
In the past two games against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, the Browns have committed turnovers in the red zone, which were converted into touchdowns on the ensuing drives. Against the 49ers, it effectively killed any chance the Browns win that game while it was at least a nine point swing against the Seahawks in a game they would ultimately lose by four.
Much of this responsibility falls on Mayfield. He has to do better in terms of making smarter decisions with the football and avoiding negative plays. The team largely goes as he does. When he plays well, they win. In situations he is generous with the ball, they struggle and ultimately fall short, resulting in some frustrating close losses and a pair of blowouts.
There are issues with penalties that need to improve and other areas the Browns can get better, but if they do nothing else but protect the ball better, they will win and win consistently. They will still have questions to answer and issues to work through, but that one stat has determined the outcome of multiple games.
The Tennessee Titans offense did very little in the opener, merely allowing the Browns to give them the game before they blew it wide open at the end. Despite all of the penalties early in the game, the Browns were in it, able to win the game win until Mayfield threw a costly interception, his first of three late in the game that opened the floodgates and enabled a 30 point Titans victory.
The Browns face the Patriots in Foxboro coming off the bye week. They have the best defense in the league by a significant margin right now and while their offense isn't doing much, they don't turn the ball over. They play solid defense and capitalize on opportunities. It hasn't resulted in massive numbers on the scoreboard, but they are 6-0.
It's not likely the Browns will completely flip their -5 turnover margin to the positive, but given the schedule, it's certainly possible. And they don't need to in order to be successful the rest of this year. It's behind them. From this point forward, if they just stop giving the ball away, it should ensure they beat the teams they should beat and keep them in games against anyone else. In addition to winning, it would also likely represent an important step forward in Mayfield's development, getting him back to the player he was most of last year and throughout his collegiate career.
