How many TD's will Zach Ertz have in 2020?
Betting isn’t supposed to be easy and figuring out which way to lean on this prop bet set by FanDuel Sportsbook is extremely difficult: Zach Ertz’s total touchdowns for the 2020 season.
The number is set at 7.5.
Recently, SI gambling analyst Corey Parson and I talked about this on the accompanying video.
There are a couple of reasons why it’s a difficult to say if that number will be more than 7.5 or less.
First, Ertz is clearly the favorite target of quarterback Carson Wentz, and that certainly goes a long way.
Second, Ertz had eight touchdowns in 2017 and 2018, but dipped to six last year.
That slight dip could be that Ertz missed the season finale against the Giants due to injury. Maybe he would have had one or two more in that win over New York that gave the Eagles the NFC East title. Or maybe it’s a trend.
Ertz will continue to get upwards of 70 percent of the offensive snaps, as he has done most of his seven-year career because he’s that good and the Eagles play a lot of 12 personnel packages, which is two tight ends on the field at the same time.
Dallas Goedert, that “other” tight end, is a blossoming star.
Goedert figures to become more and more involved in the offense in his upcoming third season. Last year, the 25-year-old caught five touchdowns after notching four as a rookie.
That is a number that could continue to rise.
Add in Miles Sanders and his increased role in the passing game – he had three as a rookie – and even the return of an improved J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who had one TD reception as a rookie, plus another receiver that the team drafts, and well, that 7.5 number for Ertz’s TDs looks like it is right on the button.
