Novak Djokovic won Wimbledon in 2011, made the semis in '12 and lost the final in '13. (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Rafael Nadal may be the No. 1 player in the world, but that doesn't mean he'll be the No. 1 seed at Wimbledon.
The All England Club doesn't merely adhere to the ATP Tour rankings to determine the 32 seeds. Instead, Wimbledon uses a formula -- which is applied only for the men -- that rewards players for their grass-court achievements. Simon Cambers of The Tennis Space has crunched the numbers to conclude the following for this year's tournament: Novak Djokovic, who is ranked No. 2, will be the top seed.
Here is how the top five seeds shape up, according to Chambers:
1. Novak Djokovic (ATP ranking: 2)
2. Rafael Nadal (1)
3. Andy Murray (5)
4. Roger Federer (4)
5. Stan Wawrinka (3)
The All England Club's seeding formula takes a player's ATP ranking as of June 16 (the week before Wimbledon), adds all points earned on grass in the previous 12 months and includes 75 percent of points earned from his best grass-court event in the 12 months before that. (The Tennis Space uses ATP rankings as of June 9 and notes that this week's results at grass-court tune-ups won't alter the projected seedings.)
This system explains Murray's anticipated bump from No. 5 in the ATP rankings to No. 3 seed at the third major of the year: He won Wimbledon and Queen's Club last season and made the Wimbledon final in 2012. A No. 3 seed is significant for Murray, who won't have to face a top four player in the quarterfinals.
Wimbledon plans to announce the seeds next Wednesday. The tournament starts on June 23.