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NBA ‘SO/UP’ Picks and Bets for Miami-Dallas, New Orleans-Phoenix

The Heat have been one of the best teams in basketball so far this season. Can they cover the spread on the road Tuesday?

I’m back with more SO/UP picks this week! I hope you followed along with our bets last week. I was 6/12 but player props were my specialty where I went 3/4.

For Tuesday night, we have Against The Spread (ATS), Over/Under and prop bets for two more NBA games with guest picker Grant Afseth from Dallasbasketball.com.

Let’s get right into it. 

Check out the latest NBA odds at SI Sportsbook.

Mavericks guard Luka Dončić

Miami Heat (5-1) at Dallas Mavericks (4-2)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Spread: Heat -2.5 (+100) | Mavericks +2.5 (-118)

Moneyline: Heat (-133) | Mavericks (+110)

Total: Under 210.5 (-110) | Over 210.5 (-110)

Injuries: Heat C Bam Adebayo—Day-to-day; Mavericks C Kristaps Porzginis—Out; Mavericks C Maxi Kleber—Out

Miami won its last two games by 26 and 15 points against the Grizzlies and Hornets, respectively. Dallas just beat Sacramento by six and lost to Denver by 29. These two teams are in very different spots; the Heat are 5-1 ATS and the Mavericks are 2-4. 

Miami’s success can be attributed to having three 20+ PPG scorers in Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Luka Dončić, who has struggled early on, is the lone 20+ PPG scorer for Dallas and even he can’t do it all by himself.

Spread Pick: Heat -2.5

Miami has asserted itself as the top team in the association so far this season with a whopping +17-point differential per game. Dallas’ only two losses this season have been to playoff teams from last season and the Mavericks have a negative point differential. The Heat end their two-game road trip with a comfortable win.

Over/Under Pick: Over 210.5

This is the lowest Over/Under of the night. The Mavericks average fewer than 100 points per game and none of their games have hit the over—that streak has to end eventually. Miami, the third-best scoring offense in the league, helps push this game past the point total.

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Prop: Luka Dončić Under 3.5 Threes Made

Dallas’ star has not hit more than three three-pointers in a single game this season and only made three once. The career 33% three-point shooter is shooting under 25% from deep this season and attempting a career-low seven threes per game. With Jimmy Butler hounding him outside, Dončić doesn’t right his shooting struggles Tuesday night.

Guest picker and DallasBasketball.com writer Grant Afseth’s take:

The Dallas Mavericks enter tonight's matchup with the Miami Heat without either stretch-big in the frontcourt—Kristaps Porzingis or Maxi Kleber. Against this Heat defense with an on-ball pest in Kyle Lowry, a versatile rim protector in Bam Adebayo, and many switchable defenders on the wing, it's not going to be easy for Luka Dončić as the initiator. 

Prop: Luka Dončić Under 8.5 Assists

Give me the under on 8.5 assists from Dončić for +105. Given the struggles his supporting cast has experienced to begin the season, Dončić has only reached nine assists in two of his six performances to start the season. It won't be easy to make lob passes to Dwight Powell using high ball screens (or for him to finish in the paint, in general) and Miami is disciplined getting out to shooters on kick-outs—creating circumstances for Dončić to potentially put up big assist totals but perhaps a robust scoring outing.

Spread Pick: Heat -2.5

The circumstances the Mavericks face entering this game will not be easy. The team's secondary scorer remains sidelined and the offense has struggled substantially to begin the season. Maxi Kleber, one of the Mavericks' few consistent spot-up threats to begin the season, is also sidelined. A hard-nosed Heat defense has the right pieces to give Luka Dončić a tough time, especially without the team's top frontcourt shooters. If you slow down Luka, his team tends to follow.


Over/Under Pick: Over 210.5

Jimmy Butler has led the Heat offense to an impressive average of 114.0 points per game through six games, with an average of 25.3 points of his own. Kyle Lowry has sorely struggled to begin the season and will have a favorable matchup. Could he get back on track against an underwhelming Mavericks defense? Meanwhile, Tyler Herro (22.0) and Bam Adebayo (20.6) have been clicking as well. Scoring won't be a problem. The Mavericks do not have it easy, but regardless, should have the capability to surpass the necessary threshold for this matchup to hit the over.

chris-paul-devin-booker-suns-finals

New Orleans Pelicans (1-6) at Phoenix Suns (2-3)

Time: 10:00 p.m. ET, TNT

Spread: Pelicans +11.5 (-110) | Suns -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Pelicans (+500) | Suns (-699)

Total: Under 216.5 (-110) | Over 216.5 (-110)

Injuries: Pelicans F Zion Williamson—Out; Pelicans F Brandon Ingram—Day-to-day; Pelicans G Devonte’ Graham—Day-to-day; Suns C Deandre Ayton—Day-to-day; Suns G Cameron Payne—Out

For how bad the Pelicans’ record is, they’re 4-3 ATS. The Suns are a league-worst 1-4 in that regard. New Orleans enters the game on a three-game losing streak with their losses coming by a combined 13 points. Phoenix beat the Cavaliers Saturday night for their second win of the season. In Zion Williamson’s absence, Devonte’ Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have stepped up to provide the Pelicans with some much-needed scoring outside of Brandon Ingram’s 25 PPG. Player averages for the Suns are pretty much down across the board and that showed itself in a pair of double-digit losses to the Trailblazers and Nuggets.

Spread Pick: Pelicans +11.5

The Pelicans have been among the worst teams in basketball sans Zion Williamson, but the Suns haven’t looked the part of a team coming off a Finals appearance. New Orleans has come out on the wrong side of some close games lately and Phoenix has been all over the place. I’m taking the points here—the Pelicans are better than their record indicates.

Over/Under Pick: Under 216.5

Both offenses are in the bottom half of the league offensively. New Orleans has only broken 110 points once this season and the same goes for Phoenix. The Suns’ games have only hit the over once while New Orleans has gone over in three of seven games. Neither defense is limiting opponents especially well, either, but the bad shooting prevails in this slogfest.

Prop: New Orleans First to 20 Points

The Pelicans have scored 25 or more points in all but one game this season, so their first-quarter offense hasn't been a huge concern. Meanwhile, Phoenix has hit that number just once. I like the plus-odds and the chance of New Orleans hitting a couple threes quickly to get to 20 first.

Guest picker and DallasBasketball.com writer Grant Afseth’s take:

Spread Pick: Suns -11.5

The Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson and the status of Brandon Ingram (questionable) unclear, the Phoenix Suns appear primed to get back on track after a 2-3 start to the season. The Pelicans play drop coverage against ball screens and Chris Paul tends to thrive with such a gap to operate — creating a favorable circumstance for the Suns to put up points. Meanwhile, New Orleans doesn't have much firepower available.

Over/Under Pick: Under 216.5

The Pelicans will struggle to put up much of a scoring performance with or without Brandon Ingram—unless some unforeseen circumstances were to occur with role players going off. The Phoenix Suns have a favorable matchup but is it favorable enough to make up for the Pelicans' lack of scoring output to reach 216 combined points?

Prop: Phoenix First to 15 Points

Contemplating a little because Suns lines are rough, but then again, I'd rather make a little bit than lose it all. There's enough variance with 15 points to turn it around and reach it first if the Suns start slowly.

More NBA odds at SI Sportsbook.

DFS Value Plays Across Tuesday Night Games

PG/SF Kevin Porter, Rockets (FD: $5,900 | DK: $6,200)

SG/SF Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Pelicans (FD: $6,100 | $6,700)

SF/PF Carmelo Anthony, Lakers (FD: $6,000 | DK: $5,300)

PF/C Richuan Homes, Kings (FD: $7,500 | DK: $6,300)

C Rudy Gobert, Jazz (FD: $8,200 | DK: $8,100)

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