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College Football Week 10 Best Bet: Alabama Poised to Add to LSU's Misery

Alabama hosting LSU used to be a premier game, but LSU is enduring a rough season. Can the Tigers cover a four-touchdown spread in Tuscaloosa?

Alabama sits as a 28.5-point favorite over LSU at SI Sportsbook.

What is typically the biggest regular season game on the SEC football calendar isn’t even in the conference’s premier TV slot this year. It’s easy to see why.

LSU has had myriad issues this season, with first and foremost the ouster of head coach Ed Orgeron only 21 months after one of the more remarkable runs to a national title in recent memory. It’s Alabama’s largest spread against a Power 5 team yet.

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The seeds were obviously sewn last season for Orgeron’s demise, with a little bit of betting history on the table as well.

You see, it’s not often LSU is a four-touchdown underdog … ever.

LSU was a 28-point home underdog to top-ranked Florida State in 1991, according to ESPN, and last year’s LSU-Alabama game closed at some places at 29 points (Alabama covered in a 55-17 shellacking). This year's game could potentially top that spread.

Both teams are coming off of a bye week and it’s clear each had a different effect. Orgeron candidly answered what the Tigers needed to do in order to improve during his Monday press conference following an intensive time of self scouting.

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LSU is also quite banged-up on both sides of the ball and more or less playing with a third-string secondary, among many other deficiencies.

All of this shows how far the Tigers have fallen.

THE PICKS

Moneyline: Alabama -5000
The implied probability of an Alabama win is 98%. C’mon, folks.

Spread: LSU +28.5
Despite everything, LSU has been fairly hard to predict this season. This is by far the biggest spread it’s faced this season (the Tigers were a 12.5-point underdog to Florida). That, combined with the good side of a key number, isn’t a bad place to be. 

Over/under: Under 66
LSU’s found some success running the ball which may limit scoring early. Alabama will win handedly, but LSU will need to score as well.

Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook

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