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NFL Week 10 Betting Preview: Early Line Movement and Odds Tracking

Week 10 NFL lines and odds are on the move, but just where is the money showing at SI Sportsbook?

After nine weeks of NFL action, sports bettors continue to witness underdogs holding a slight edge in the wagering outcome, with a mark of 76-56-1 (57.6%) Against The Spread (ATS). 

The action returns with a prime time showdown between the Ravens and Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens are currently a 7.5-point home favorite with a total sitting on the game at 46.5 at SI Sportsbook.

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Let’s take an early look-ahead at several of the biggest games that have garnered significant betting attention resulting in noticeable line moves on the weekend slate.

Check the Week 10 Lines at SI Sportsbook

mike-white-jets-first-game-good

NFL Week 10 Games ‘On The Move’

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Moneyline: Buffalo (-700) | New York (+500)

Spread: BUF -12.5 (-110) | NYJ +12.5 (-110)

Total: 47.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: 47.5 (-110)

Game Info: Nov. 14, 2021 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS

Bettors are beginning to invest as they often do based upon recency bias. This game opened in early wagering back in August with Buffalo as 7-point favorites but was adjusted to an opening line of the Bills as 13.5-point road favorites by oddsmakers at SI Sportsbook

Buffalo, coming off a shocking 9-6 loss to Jacksonville as 14-point road favorites, will be looking to snap a two-game road losing streak and earn their third road victory of the season in Week 10. The Bills, who possess the league’s best scoring defense (14.8 per game), will now face a Jets offense that has averaged 32 points per game over the last two weeks. 

Bettors are investing that the Jets will stay within the double-digit spread against an AFC East rival they currently own a 6-4 ATS mark against over the last 10 matchups. Dating back to 2016, the Bills have beaten the Jets seven of the last 10 meetings.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 60% of money on Buffalo

Line Move: Buffalo -7 to Buffalo -13.5 to Buffalo -12.5

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2021 Against The Spread Record

BUF: 5-3 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 3-2 ATS)

NYJ: 2-6 ATS (Home: 2-1 ATS, Away: 0-5 ATS)

2020 Against The Spread Record

BUF: 10-6 ATS (Home: 6-2 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

NYJ: 6-10 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)

Nick Chubb scores a touchdown for the Browns.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

Moneyline: Cleveland (+105) | New England (-125)

Spread: CLE +1.5 (-110) | NE -1.5 (-110)

Total: 45– Over (-110) | Under 45 (-110)

Game Info: Nov. 14, 2021 1:00 p.m. ET | CBS

We have witnessed a flip of favorites from the early August line involving the Patriots in Week 10 hosting Baker Mayfield and the Browns. This game opened with New England as 2-point home underdogs in early wagering over the summer, but opened this past Sunday with the Patriots as 3-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook.

However, since the opener, oddsmakers have witnessed strong steam backing the Browns, coming off an impressive 41-16 victory over Cincinnati. Pro money is wagering that Cleveland, with the second-best rushing offense (160.2 yards per game) will still be able to move the ball on the ground with D’Ernest Johnson—if Nick Chubb is unable to return from the COVID list by kickoff. 

New England is beginning to round into form, posting 3-0 Straight-Up (SU) and ATS marks following wins over Carolina, Chargers and the Jets. Over that span, the Patriots have outscored those opponents 105-43.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 58% of money on Cleveland

Line Move: New England +2 to New England -3 to New England -1.5

2021 Against The Spread Record

CLE: 5-4 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 3-1 ATS)

NE: 5-4 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 3-1 ATS)

2020 Against The Spread Record

CLE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 3-5 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

NE: 7-9 ATS (Home: 5-3 ATS, Away: 2-6 ATS)

Patrick Mahomes directs a blocker while running during the Chiefs' Monday night win over the Giants

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Moneyline: Kansas City (-150) | Las Vegas (+125)

Spread: KC +3 (-110) | LV +3 (-110)

Total: 51.5– Over: (-110) | Under: 51.5 (-110)

Game Info: Nov. 14, 2021 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC

The Chiefs, early 7.5-point road favorites in August, were adjusted to just a 3-point demand on Sunday’s opener at SI Sportsbook

The Chiefs, who are 3-1 SU over the last four weeks, are a disappointing 1-3 ATS over that span. Kansas City will now face a Raiders squad that has been hit with tremendous off-the-field issues this season. The Chiefs have been difficult to trust versus the number, posting a 9-16 ATS (36%) mark over their last 13 regular season games overall. 

On the flip side, the Raiders will look to bounce back from their Week 9 loss against the Giants. Kansas City has won eight of the last 10 matchups, while posting a 6-4 ATS mark over that span. The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road against the Raiders in the last five AFC West matchups.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 57% of money on Kansas City

Line Move: Las Vegas +7.5 to Las Vegas +3

2021 Against The Spread Record

KC: 2-7 ATS (Home: 0-5 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)

LV: 4-4 ATS (Home: 2-2 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)

2020 Against The Spread Record

KC: 7-9 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 3-5 ATS)

LV: 8-8 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 4-4 ATS)

matthew-stafford-rams-super-bowl-prediction

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Moneyline: Los Angeles (-200) | San Francisco (+165)

Spread: LAR -4 (-110) | SF +4 (-110)

Total: 49– Over: (-110) | Under: 49 (-110)

Game Info: Nov. 15, 2021 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN

The Rams burned bettors on Sunday Night football when they failed to cover the spread for the third straight game, getting upset by the Titans, 28-16, as 7-point home favorites. The Rams, who possess the league’s fifth-best scoring offense (29.0 points per game), will look to extend their road winning streak to five consecutive games, which have only resulted in a 2-2 ATS mark. The 49ers have been a tremendous fade for bettors when they take their field at Levi Stadium in 2021, posting an 0-4 SU and ATS mark at SI Sportsbook

Bettors are backing that trend to continue in Week 10, despite being forced to pay a premium in comparison to the line offered back in August. The Rams, who are 3-7 ATS against their NFC West foe, were listed as 3-point underdogs in early wagering over the summer—but bettors find a massive move in the current line showing the Rams now as 4-point road favorites. 

The 49ers have won four consecutive matchups with the Rams, however San Francisco will clearly need to improve its 1-9 ATS home mark over its last 10 home games, before gaining the trust of sports bettors.

BY THE NUMBERS

Public Betting: 72% of money on Los Angeles

Line Move: Rams +3 to Rams -3 to Rams -4

2021 Against The Spread Record

LAR: 4-5 ATS (Home: 2-3 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)

SF: 2-6 ATS (Home: 0-4 ATS, Away: 2-2 ATS)

2020 Against The Spread Record

DEN: 9-7 ATS (Home: 4-4 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS)

SF: 6-10 ATS (Home: 1-5 ATS, Away: 5-3 ATS, Neutral: 0-2 ATS)

Check the Week 10 Lines at SI Sportsbook

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Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.