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NBA 'SO/UP' Bets and Analysis: Warriors-Nets, Spurs-Clippers

Brooklyn and Golden State own two of the best records in basketball and they’re on the line Tuesday night.

The top teams are starting to pull away from the pack with another week of games behind us. Two of those teams—Golden State and Brooklyn—are in action Tuesday.

Last week was tough for the SO/UP crowd, I’ll be honest. But I’m ready to bounce back this week and I’m happy to welcome my colleague Ben Pickman as this week’s guest picker. Let’s get into the games.

Season record: 19-17

Guest pickers: 11-19

Golden State Warriors guard Andrew Wiggins dribbles the basketball

Golden State Warriors (11-2) vs. Brooklyn Nets (10-4)

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Spread: Warriors +3 (-110) | Nets -3 (-110)

Moneyline: Warriors (+125) | Nets (-150)

Total: Under 221.5 (-110) | Over 221.5 (-110)

Injuries: Warriors G Klay Thompson—Out; Warriors G Gary Payton II—Day-to-day; Nets G Joe Harris—Day-to-day; Nets F Paul Milsap—Day-to-day

Golden State’s winning streak ended at seven games Sunday in Charlotte. That was just the Warriors’ second loss of the season, the fewest in basketball. They have the most wins and best winning percentage in the NBA and can still point to their No. 1-ranked offense (115.1 PPG) and No. 3 defense (101.8 PPG) as further evidence they are back. 

Golden State hits 15.2 three-pointers per game, which leads the league, and Stephen Curry’s 28.1 PPG on a nightly basis gives him the second-best mark. Jordan Poole has hit his stride as a scorer alongside Curry, who no longer needs to watch his shots go in the hoop. The Warriors have a +13.2 PPG point differential. The next closest is Miami, which is +6.6 PPG. Golden State is at the peak of its powers.

The Nets return to Brooklyn after a 5-1 road trip with three of their wins coming by double digits. The season got off to a rocky, 2-3 start, but Brooklyn is 8-1 since and holds the second spot in the East behind the Wizards, just as expected. Defense, not offense, is paying the bills for the Nets. Brooklyn is a mediocre offensive team (108.5 PPG) and boasts the No. 6 scoring defense (103.5 PPG). James Harden is playing and shooting much better in November and Kevin Durant, who leads the league in scoring at nearly 30 per night, is playing at his usual MVP level.

Spread Pick: Warriors +3

Golden State has one of the best Against The Spread (ATS) records in basketball (8-4-1), and it’s not often you get to bet the Warriors as an underdog. Brooklyn is 7-7 ATS. I like the points here. They haven’t played on the road much yet this season, but they’re 3-1 away from home with the sole loss coming in Golden State’s last game, an off night for Curry in Charlotte. Don’t bet on that happening back-to-back for Curry and the Warriors.

Over/Under Pick: Over 221.5

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These teams have not hit the over often. Brooklyn’s games have only gone over five times in 14 games. Golden State has done so less often, four out of 13. That’s because the Nets and Warriors have great defense. They also have three all-time offensive players between them, and I think offense is what prevails tonight. It’s not hard to see both teams in the neighborhood of 110 points with two of the league’s leading scorers, Curry and Durant, on the court.

Prop: Steph Curry Over 5.5 Assists

Curry is averaging nearly an entire assist more per game this season than the last. He’s good for 6.7 dimes per game and he’s dished 10 four times already. In games where Curry has been bothered, like Golden State’s recent loss to Charlotte, he’s gotten involved by passing the ball more. I don’t see a bad game coming for Curry, but I think Brooklyn will try to chase him off his spots and Curry is more than a good enough playmaker to make the Nets pay for doubling him.

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Guest Picker Ben Pickman’s Take:

Spread Pick: Nets -3

The Warriors continue their road trip on Tuesday night against the Nets, looking to rebound from Sunday’s loss to the Hornets. Their game against Brooklyn is just their fifth road contest of the season, and represents by far their biggest test yet. Golden State has been super impressive this season, perhaps no more than on the defensive side of the basketball, where they lead the league in defensive rating. 

Along with the play of star guard Stephen Curry, their depth has been instrumental in jumping out to an 11–2 start. Still, how the Warriors contain Nets stars Kevin Durant and James Harden remains a question entering Tuesday’s action. Durant enters averaging a league-best 29.6 points, career-high 8.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. While he averaged just 21 points per game in his two appearances vs. the Warriors last year, expect more on Tuesday night as leads the Nets to a close win.

Over/Under Pick: Under 221.5

Sure, the Nets and Warriors have some of the biggest names in the sport, but key to the Warriors’ success this season has been their defense, which allows a league-low 99.3 points per 100 possessions and has seen opponents shoot just 42.6% against them. The Nets’ defense has also been ahead of its offense this season, currently placing at No. 7 in defensive rating, allowing just 103.4 points per game. And, much like the Warriors, they hold opponents to just 42.6% shooting, tied for third in the league. Expect this to be a lower-scoring affair than the line suggests.

Prop: Patty Mills to score 15 or more points

It wouldn’t be shocking to see Mills play a central role in the Nets’ offense on Tuesday night. He’s coming off a 29-point outing vs. the Thunder over the weekend and has scored 20 or more points in a game three times this season. Mills is a dangerous three-point shooter who is fully capable of getting hot. Considering his importance on offense with Kyrie Irving out, he could play a big role in the contest if the Nets were to outlast Golden State.

San Antonio Spurs (4-9) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (8-5)

Time: 10:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Spurs +7.5 (-110) | Clippers -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline: Spurs (+240) | Clippers (-300)

Total: Under 219.5 (-110) | Over 219.5 (-110)

Injuries: Spurs C Jakob Poeltl—Out; Clippers F Marcus Morris Sr.—Out; Clippers G Terance Mann—Day-to-day

San Antonio is in an unfamiliar situation in the basement of the Western Conference. The Spurs dropped their last two games thanks to their sieve-like defense. They allow the ninth-most points in the NBA (109.5 PPG). However, they’re also ninth in scoring (109.6 PPG) despite not having a 20 PPG scorer on the roster. San Antonio has seven players averaging better than 10 PPG, led by Dejounte Murray, a triple-double threat on any given night. The Spurs’ young core is playing well, it just isn’t manifesting itself in wins.

The Clippers wrap up a six-game home stand against the Spurs and are looking for their fifth win in that stretch. Los Angeles has managed to stay well within the playoff picture without Kawhi Leonard thanks to the play of Paul George. The Fresno State product leads the team in scoring, rebounds and assists per game and his 26.5 PPG are good for top-five in the NBA. The Clippers are a middle of the pack offensive team (108.5 PPG) and a top-five scoring defense (103.3 PPG). George has five teammates who average double figures alongside him, but the Clippers lack a true inside presence.

Spread Pick: Clippers -7.5

L.A. is 6-3 at home and San Antonio is 2-5 on the road. The Clippers are fresh off a loss to a good Bulls team and get to bounce back against the lowly, visiting Spurs. I think this is an easy cover for Los Angeles. These teams have identical ATS records (7-6), so the better team gets the edge here. The Clippers are rolling, having beaten Miami a week ago and then Minnesota by 27. They get back on track Tuesday against the Spurs.

Over/Under Pick: Under 219.5

The Clippers should dictate the pace of this game and keep the Spurs below their scoring average with their stout defense. San Antonio’s games have gone over at the third-highest rate in the NBA (7-5-1), but L.A. keeps the Spurs in check with their rangy wing defenders.

Prop: Dejounte Murray Over 17.5 Points

I like this bet because Murray averages 18.4 PPG on the year, and he went over 17.5 in his last game when he scored 22. Murray has been shooting more in November and shooting at a better clip. He’s going to have to put up plenty of shots to keep the Spurs in the game against the Clippers, certainly enough to hit the over on this prop.

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Guest Picker Ben Pickman’s Take:

Spread Pick: Clippers -6.5

Paul George is playing some of the best basketball of his career early on this season. His 26.5 per game scoring average is the best mark of his career, while his 8.2 rebounds per contest ties his career-best mark. Stopping George will be a tall task for the Spurs, who while relying on a number of intriguing young players, have defeated just one playoff team from last season in the 2021-22 campaign. Los Angeles dropped Sunday’s game to the Bulls, but had won its seven games before that, including picking up impressive victories over the Heat and Trail Blazers. They’ve beaten up on bad teams this season and should knock off the Spurs on Tuesday.

Over/Under Pick: Under 219.5

The Clippers are No. 2 in the NBA in opponent field goal percentage (42.4%) and third overall in defensive rating. While the Spurs are closer to league-average defensively, allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Neither offense has been particularly efficient this season either, with both entering Tuesday night’s game in the bottom half of the league. The result will be a game that hits the under.

Prop: Dejounte Murray Over 1.5 three-pointers

Murray is averaging a career-high 18.4 points per game this season, but he’s taking just four three point attempts per game. Despite averaging just 1.3 makes per game, also a career high, Murray has seemed more aggressive from deep this season. Five times this year he’s taken five or more three-pointers in a game. And, in six of his 13 appearances, he’s made two or more threes, creating a little bit of value on this prop. The Spurs will need to score to keep up with the Clippers and Murray will be central to that attack.

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DFS Value Plays:

PG Mike Conley, Jazz (FD: $5,700 | DK: $6,200)

SG/PG Eric Bledsoe, Clippers (FD: $6,000 | DK: $5,200)

SF/PF Keldon Johnson, Spurs (FD: $6,900 | DK: $6,000)

C/PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Nets (FD: $5,600 | DK: $4,800)

C Ivica Zubac, Clippers (FD: $5,600 | DK: $4,900)

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