For fantasy managers and bettors, Sunday Night Football can be the culmination of a great day or the chance to salvage some funds and gain on our opponents.
Have no fear as the SI Betting team is here to help you out with our best plays for Week 11 when the Steelers look to make (4-0-1) six straight games without a loss when they take on a suddenly struggling Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
Without further ado….
SI Betting Editor Matt Ehalt's Take:
The Chargers receive plenty of hype because Brandon Staley says the right things in his press conferences about philosophies and strategies, but they've been downright mediocre. Justin Herbert has regressed in his second year, Mike Williams is MIA and that defense can't stop the run. Los Angeles should win this game, but I think the Steelers keep it close. Getting six points seems like a solid investment. I just don't trust the Chargers, considering they look like the same ol' Chargers. Los Angeles' defense being depleted this week helps the cause.
BEST BET: Steelers +6
SI Betting Senior Editor Matt De Lima's Take:
Between a post-COVID Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph, I'm not confident in the Steelers' half of this SNF matchup. It doesn't help that the Chargers are 3-6 vs. the over/under and Pittsburgh is 2-7. I'm not looking forward to the kickers being the stars of this game, but I expect both squads to be caught flat-footed on offense.
BEST BET: Total Touchdowns UNDER 5.5
SI Betting & Fantasy Director Bill Enright's Take:
The Steelers and Chargers are still very much in this AFC playoff picture, but Los Angeles lost three of its last four. With the Broncos, Bengals and Giants on the schedule after Pittsburgh the opportunity to turn things around is certainly within reach. But this week, they are giving the Steelers 6 points? No way. Doesn’t make sense. My brain hurts thinking about it. Pittsburgh is 2-1 Against The Spread as a road underdog. Take the points here.
BEST BET: Steelers +6
AllSteelers Editor Noah Strackbein's Take:
It’s hard to bet on the Steelers this week with the uncertainty at quarterback and the pile of injuries on the offensive line and defense. That being said, the Chargers aren’t a very hot football team right now and the Steelers tend to play their best football when they’re looked down on. The Chargers walk away winners, but this is a closer game than people expect.
BEST BET: Steelers+6
MMQB Senior Editor Gary Gramling's Take:
If the Steelers were at full strength I’d consider this Chargers at -2.5 at home, but the T.J. Watt injury and uncertainty surrounding Ben Roethlisberger throws the number into chaos. We’ll stick with what we know: On Sunday night, we’ll see a Steelers offense that wants to run the ball a ton. But I also think we’ll see a Chargers team that is going to keep it on the ground more than usual because (1) They are (for reasons unknown) getting increasingly risk-averse with their passing concepts, but also (2) because the Steelers—whose inside linebackers are really struggling—have played poorly against the run in 2021. (Not to mention, the Chargers will likely be protecting a lead for most of this game.) It adds up to a lot of running clock and a low-scoring affair. Plus, since the start of the 2019 season, the total has gone under in 14 of the Steelers’ last 19 road games (with one push), and in 11 of 14 Steelers road games when the total was greater than 42 (also with one push).
BEST BET: UNDER 46.5
SI Betting Senior Fantasy Editor, Craig Ellenport’s take:
There are some players in the NFL who just thrive under the lights. T.J. Watt is one of those guys, which is why I loved him on Monday night two weeks ago. But Watt is banged up for this one, which is good news for another player who is developing into a primetime stud. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has played three night games in his young career. The results: 267 passing yards per game, nine total TD passes, zero INTs. The Chargers have lost three of their last four and Herbert has had his ups and downs, but this primetime matchup is just what the doctor ordered. I expect Herbert to toss at least two TD passes Sunday night, so if you can get him at over 1.5, jump all over that.
BEST BET: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes
SI Betting Senior Betting Analyst, Frankie Taddeo’s take:
As all fantasy managers know, Diontae Johnson is easily the best offensive weapon in the Pittsburgh passing game. As I always like to say, follow the volume and you will return to the betting window when it involves NFL player proposition wagers. The third-year wideout has drawn double-digit targets in six of eight games this season. In addition, upon a deeper dive we find that Johnson has surpassed this posted number of 69.5 in six of eight games. Time to invest in a player who has drawn a a team-high 82 targets (next closest: RB Najee Harris, 56) to go beyond this number by oddsmakers on primetime—no matter if its Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph under center.
BEST BET: Diontae Johnson Over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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