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NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Predictions: Cowboys Will Cover Against Chiefs

It's been a rough road for bettors taking the favorites the last few weeks, but look for a return to normalcy in Week 11.

The last two weeks of NFL action have been a bit chaotic.

In Week 9, five underdogs—some of which were getting double-digits—won their games outright. In Week 10, five more underdogs pulled off the outright win. 

Some quick math tells us that is TEN straight-up upsets in the last two weeks.

What’s the point of reliving the past?

Nov 14, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates his third quarter rushing touchdown with running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) against the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium.

Well, it’s a quick opportunity to shout out our terrific group of analysts. Five of our seven analysts are above .500 Against The Spread (ATS), despite the weekly chaos throughout the league. We look to continue that trend of picking winners.

Before we get into the micro with our best bets, let’s go macro with our team’s agreements and disagreements.

Week 11 Bets we agree on:

  • Three writers are riding on the 49ers on the road, laying the 6.5 points
  • The Colts getting seven points from the Bills attracted three of our writers
  • An AFC East battle between the Jets and Dolphins caught the attention of three analysts, who jumped on Miami laying the 3.5 points
  • We’re all looking forward to what could be a Super Bowl Preview with the Cowboys and Chiefs but three of us hopped on Dallas getting the 2.5.
  • In three separate games, two of our writers agree on the same pick with the Giants (+10.5), Bengals (-1) and Lions +11.5.

Week 11 Bets we disagree on:

  • Two of our writers are on opposite ends of the Saints-Eagles game.
  • Two of our writers are on opposite sides of Cardinals-Seahawks, with one of us calling for a straight-up upset by going with the Seahawks on the moneyline.
  • It’s always a good sign when our group is more aligned than askew.

Cheers to another week of profitable picks!

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For a complete list of spreads for NFL Week 11, check out SI Sportsbook

Week 11 Best Bets

Here's our criteria for picking games:

• All odds from SI Sportsbook

Each analyst must pick five games

• Three of the bets must be against the spread or over/under

• The remaining two picks (if all five aren't ATS or O/U) can be on the moneyline (but at least one of those picks must be on an underdog)

• We believe transparency is paramount in the world of sports betting, which is why we entrust Sharp Rank to keep track of all our picks/performance

Jen Piacenti's Best Bet: Cardinals -2.5

I like Arizona to cover the spread vs. Seattle. Quite simply, Russell Wilson isn’t ready to cook. Until I see him put at least a TD on the board, I can’t trust this offense. Meanwhile, Arizona will be looking to bounce back after their embarrassing loss to the Panthers last week. Kyler Murray is trending toward return and Arizona and James Conner should be able to run all over a Seattle defense that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game, the most receiving yards per game and an 84.2% catch rate to opposing running backs. Arizona leads the league with a 72.4% passing completion rate and its 3-0 within the division. Kyler returns, and the Cards cover this spread. 

Jen's Season Record: 36-27

Casey Olson's Best Bet: Colts +7

The Colts head on over to the land of breaking tables as the hometown crowd looks to rally its Bills back on track after alternating wins and losses the last four weeks. Home-field advantage should play a factor here, but I think the Colts keep it close. The Bills have the NFL’s best scoring defense at 15.0 points allowed per game, while the Colts bring a 30.3 average points scored over its last seven. Wentz had gone six games straight with at least 2 touchdown passes, which was halted by the Jaguars last weekend. He will face the second-ranked defense in pass yards (190.2), which points to a big showing from Jonathan Taylor, who’s averaged 122 yards and 6.9 yards per carry over a five-game stretch. The Colts bring a solid game plan, avoid the turnovers and keep this one close.

Casey Olson's Season Record: 28-24

Richard Johnson's Best Bet: Saints Moneyline +110

I know the Saints are not exactly going to light up the scoreboard with their offense, but I don't like the idea of Jalen Hurts against this Dennis Allen defense even if the birds have been playing better the last few weeks. N'awlins wins outright.

Richard's Season Record: 18-31-1

Will Laws' Best Bet: Bengals -1

Cincinnati should establish its aerial attack against a Raiders defense that last week proved to be the cure for whatever ailed Patrick Mahomes, who threw for a season-high 422 passing yards and wasn't sacked once during Kansas City's blowout win in Las Vegas. Joe Mixon should also have a good day at the office against a defense that's long struggled to stop the run. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals' top-10 rush defense should be able to contain a backfield led by the hobbled Josh Jacobs—Las Vegas ranks dead last in run block win rate (66%) this season. The Raiders have lost four of their last six games while enduring the departures of their head coach and best wide receiver amid awful circumstances, and it feels like the wheels could be coming off in another late-season collapse for a franchise that's suffered plenty of them. I'll take the Bengals coming off of their bye. 

Will's Season Record: 13-9

Frank Taddeo's Best Bet: Dolphins -3

This is a pure system play. Joe Flacco making his first start of the season, combined with a Jets defense that is the worst in the NFL. The Jets are allowing the most points per game (32.9) in the league through 10 weeks. Just how bad is New York’s defense this season? The Jets have allowed 45-plus points to three of its last four opponents! The Dolphins have dominated their AFC East rival of late, winning six of the last seven matchups (6-0-1 ATS). Expect that ATS unbeaten streak to extend to eight consecutive cashes for bettors against a Jets defense that simply does not have an NFL caliber starting eleven on that side of the ball. Lay the three with the Fish in Week 11.

Frank's Season Record: 22-34

Bill Enright's Best Bet: Seahawks Moneyline +110

It’s a divisional game in the NFC West with some playoff implications for both teams. Arizona is favored by 2.5 points on the road, which tells me the sportsbook expects Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray to play but not at 100%. Arizona is 8-2 and tied for the best record in the league and is 7-3 ATS. However, the Cardinals are just 3-3 when favored by 2.5 points or more. Arizona loses its second straight game and the Seahawks recover from being blanked in Week 10 with an outright win. Plus-money on the Moneyline! Let's get it!

Bill's Season Record: 29-27-2

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For a complete list of spreads for NFL Week 11, check out SI Sportsbook

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