Betting Roundtable: Favorite NFL Season Win Total Wager
While NFL fans feverishly book road trips with friends and family to support their favorite teams around the country following the schedule release, our team here at Sports Illustrated dove into how you can make money to pay for those excursions by reviewing the 2022 NFL season win totals released by SI Sportsbook.
For a complete listing of every NFL team’s season win total projection as well as four early respected investments from Las Vegas made on schedule release night, click here.
Let’s take a look at the best bets from our team of betting and fantasy experts…
Check Out the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
SI Fantasy’s Craig Ellenport
The Saints finished 9-8 last season and theoretically should be stronger in 2022 with the return of Jameis Winston, a healthy Michael Thomas, the drafting of Chris Olave and signing a veteran defensive leader in Tyrann Mathieu. So why is the win total just 7.5? The Saints have a strong home-field advantage and NFC teams play nine home games this year. So if the Saints go 6-3 at home in 2022, they would need to win just two road games to beat their total. Easy.
BET: New Orleans over 7.5 wins (-143)
SI Betting’s Kyle Wood
The Colts finished 9-8 a season ago, and if you ask anyone in Indianapolis, they really should have finished with 10 wins. After losing to the last-place Jaguars in Week 18, the Colts fell to 9-8 and missed the playoffs. In the offseason, general manager Chris Ballard upgraded at quarterback by bringing in Matt Ryan to replace Carson Wentz and added a few pass catchers in the draft to improve a lackluster receiver room. With a better quarterback behind center and playing in a relatively weak division that only got worse, it shouldn't be difficult for Indianapolis to have (at least) a one-win improvement against one of the easier schedules in the league.
BET: New Orleans over 9.5 wins (-143)
SI Betting’s Matt Ehalt
I'm taking the over on Green Bay's win total at 11.5. I see the Packers going 12-5 or better. The NFC North is a joke of a division as usual, and the Packers should at least go 5-1 in the division. Let's say they go 8-1 at home (including a "home game" vs. the Giants in London) with one loss to either the Rams or Cowboys. Green Bay can then lose four times on the road to the Vikings/Bills/Dolphins/Eagles/Buccaneers combination and still hit the over on this bet. Add in that I'm getting +100 on my bet here, and this seems like a strong bet to make even in the post-Davante Adams era.
BET: Green Bay over 11.5 wins (+100)
SI Betting & Fantasy’s Bill Enright
The 2022 Colts took an already impressive roster and made it better thanks to a fantastic offseason and draft class. Adding quarterback Matt Ryan is a tremendous improvement over last year’s starter Carson Wentz, one that should push the Colts over the edge of claiming their first AFC South title since 2014. Matchups against their division foes and their out of conference slate against the NFC East should lead to at least seven wins for Indianapolis. That leaves the need to get three more wins over bad or mediocre teams like the Lions, Raiders, Steelers, Vikings, and Chargers.
BET: Indianapolis over 9.5 wins (-143)
SI Betting and Fantasy’s Jen Piacenti
I am going to optimistically take the Dolphins to go over the win total of 8.5. The Fins won nine contests last year, and this year they will be going to battle with a new crew that includes Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds and a new offense-minded young coach in Mike McDaniel. Tua Tagovailoa will be just fine. Miami has a relatively easy schedule, as their opponents combined for a .481 win percentage in 2021.
BET: Miami over 8.5 wins (-143)
SI Betting’s Frankie Taddeo
The Eagles significantly fast-tracked the development of young quarterback Jalen Hurts when they acquired former Tennessee star wideout A.J. Brown. Philadelphia pulled off a blockbuster trade on the first night of the NFL draft, to land a top 10 wide receiver who has compiled 185 catches for 2,995 yards and 24 touchdowns in just three seasons.
After finishing last season with a 9-8 record, oddsmakers have the Eagles posted with a season win total projection of 8.5, juiced heavily to the over at odds of -167. The Eagles are listed to get out of the blocks with a victory as they are 4.5-point road favorites at Detroit. Thanks to being handed the third-easiest strength of schedule (.464), I envision this number will only rise as we get closer to the season and I actually prefer investing in the over in this market at a projection of 9 at potentially plus-odds.
BET: Philadelphia OVER 8.5 (-167)
SI Fantasy’s Matt De Lima
The Titans feel like a lock to be under 9.5 wins. How long before Ryan Tannehill throws two INTs in the first half and the crowd starts chanting for Malik Willis? Tennessee traded away its best pass catcher and while Treylon Burks figures to be great eventually, rookies don't always pan out right away. This no-name defense overachieved a year ago, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Then factor in the division: the Urban Meyer-less Jaguars, a Matt Ryan-led Colts team and a has-to-be-better Texans—all makes me lean toward the under.
BET: Titans under 9.5 wins (-125)
More betting & NFL coverage:
• Five Best 2022 NFL Games to Bet
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Draft Fantasy Winners and Losers
• How the NFL Built the 2022 Schedule
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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