Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for NLDS Game 1

Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS.

Freddy Peralta and the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs defended Wrigley Field to eliminate the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card Round. They now face off against their division rival Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.

The Brewers finished the regular season five games better than the Cubs, with their 97 wins leading the entire league. They’ll look to keep that up in the postseason.

Which NL Central rival will take Game 1 of the NLDS?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Cubs vs. Brewers on Saturday night.

Cubs vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Cubs +1.5 (-175)
• Brewers -1.5 (+143)

Moneyline

• Cubs +129
• Brewers -157

Total

• 7 (Over -126/Under +104)

Cubs vs. Brewers Probable Pitchers

• Cubs: 
• Brewers: Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA)

Cubs vs. Brewers How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 4
• Time: 2:08 p.m. ET
• Venue: American Family Field
• How to Watch (TV): TBS
• Cubs record: 92-70 (2-1)
• Brewers record: 97-65 (0-0)

Cubs vs. Brewers Best MLB Prop Bets

Brewers Best MLB Prop Bet

• Freddy Peralta To Record a Win (+262)

Long gone are the days of 20-win pitchers peppered throughout the league as no pitcher reached that mark this season. Freddy Peralta came pretty close, though, with 17 wins in his 33 starts. That was good for the fourth-most in MLB, and the most in the NL.

I considered taking Peralta Over 14.5 Outs (-162), and that is a safer play if that’s more up your alley. He went at least five innings in 30 of 33 starts this season. But if he hits that by completing at least five innings, he’s likely going to be in line for the win.

The Brewers went 20-13 in Peralta’s starts this year, meaning there were just three games where Milwaukee won but Peralta did not get credited with the win. 

I’ll take the +262 odds that Peralta keeps dealing on Saturday afternoon and the Brewers do enough to get him the win.

Cubs vs. Brewers Prediction and Pick

The Cubs scored just six runs in their three-game series against the Padres. They won Games 1 and 3 3-1 and were shut out in Game 2 by Dylan Cease and the San Diego bullpen.

Milwaukee is able to start its ace in Game 1 and also have a fully-rested bullpen. That’s one of the best bullpens in the league, mind you, with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season. They’re headlined by Abner Uribe (1.67 ERA in 75.1 IP), Trevor Megill (2.49 in 47), and southpaw Jared Koenig (2.86 in 66), who should all be ready for action on Saturday afternoon.

Peralta allowed two runs or fewer in 24 of 33 starts this season, including nine shutout appearances and 10 times when he allowed just one run. That’s one run or fewer in 19 of 33 starts.

The Cubs may be able to squeak out a win, but it won’t be by putting runs on the board. It’d have to be a low-scoring game, and I’m seeing them held to three runs or fewer yet again this postseason.

Rather than taking the Brewers to win at -157, I’ll get a better price fading Chicago’s bats.

Pick: Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 (-140)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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