Quickly

  • The Cardinals are up to No. 6 while the Hoosiers fall to No. 14 this week, which is the last of the non-conference season and a good time to take stock of how teams are performing relative to preseason expectations.
By Luke Winn
December 22, 2016

Part of the winning formula in college basketball is developing upside—as in, having players make breakthroughs that are beyond what their career stats, projected development curves and recruiting evaluations would suggest. The final, full week of non-conference play seems like the right time to take stock of how the Power Ranked 16 stand vis-à-vis SI's preseason projections, and answer the same question for each team: In what way are they most outperforming our analytic forecasts?

1
Villanova Wildcats
1
12-0
Senior wing Josh Hart was No. 2 in our preseason Player of the Year forecast based not on an expectation of extreme, offensive excellence but rather all-around value—scoring, rebounding and defense. Hart has since moved up to No. 1 in every pundit's assessment of the Wooden/Naismith race by playing out of his mind offensively. He's the nation's most efficient player (with a 137.8 offensive rating on kenpom.com) that uses at least 25% of his team's possessions, and he's averaging nearly as many assists (3.7) as point guard Jalen Brunson (3.8). (Overall, though, 'Nova is right in line with its projections, which were to be the No. 3 team in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in D. The Wildcats are currently No. 1 and No. 16.)Next up: 12/28 vs. DePaul, 12/31 at Creighton
2
UCLA Bruins
2
13-0
Next up: 12/28 at Oregon, 12/30 at Oregon State
3
Kansas Jayhawks
3
10-1
Next up: 12/22 at UNLV, 12/30 at TCU
4
Duke Blue Devils
4
12-1
Next up: 12/31 at Virginia Tech, 1/4 vs. Georgia Tech
5
Baylor Bears
6
12-0
Next up: 12/30 at Oklahoma, 1/4 vs. Iowa State
6
Louisville Cardinals
11
11-1
Next up: 12/28 vs. Virginia, 12/31 vs. Indiana in Indianapolis
7
Gonzaga Bulldogs
9
12-0
The Zags are pretty much who we thought they'd be. I'm amazed at how close the actual stats of their top seven guys are to their projections:The lone Gonzaga player who's truly expanded his repertoire this season is senior center Przemek Karnowski, who can now post up, throw crafty, lefty passes to cutters and play Santa Shem during timeouts of game telecasts: Santa Shem left the North Pole(and) to visit Gonzaga's telecast last night and it will put you in the spirit pic.twitter.com/fPfZHVXGy9 — Luke Winn (@lukewinn) December 22, 2016 Next up:
8
Creighton Bluejays
10
12-0
Next up: 12/28 vs. Seton Hall, 12/31 vs. Villanova
9
Kentucky Wildcats
7
10-2
Next up: 12/29 at Mississippi, 1/3 vs. Texas A&M
10
North Carolina Tar Heels
8
11-2
Next up: 12/28 vs. Monmouth, 12/31 at Georgia Tech
11
Butler Bulldogs
14
11-1
Next up: 12/29 at St. John's, 1/1 vs. Providence
12
West Virginia Mountaineers
13
10-1
Next up: 12/23 vs. Northern Kentucky, 12/30 at Oklahoma State
13
Virginia Cavaliers
17
10-1
Next up: 12/28 at Louisville, 12/31 vs. Florida State
14
Indiana Hoosiers
5
9-2
Next up: 12/22 vs. Austin Peay, 12/28 vs. Nebraska
15
Wisconsin Badgers
12
10-2
Next up: 12/23 vs. Florida A&M, 12/27 vs. Rutgers
16
USC Trojans
16
11-0
Next up: 12/22 vs. Missouri State in Las Vegas, 12/23 vs. Wyoming/DePaul in Las Vegas

The Next 16

17. Oregon
18. Purdue
19. Arizona
20. Notre Dame
21. Xavier
22. Florida State
23. Florida
24. St. Mary's
25. Cincinnati
26. Clemson
27. Virginia Tech
28. Seton Hall
29. Minnesota
30. Maryland
31. UT Arlington
32. Arkansas

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