Bowl projections: Stanford win creates nationwide ripple

Monday November 11th, 2013

Stanford's 26-20 victory over Oregon produced bowl ramifications affecting the Big Ten and ACC.
Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

I didn't make too many changes from last week, but the ripple effect of Stanford's win over Oregon did impact both the BCS lineup and one conference's entire lineup. Florida State's move up to the national title game allowed Clemson to move up to the Orange Bowl but cost Wisconsin its projected at-large berth. That knocked every Big Ten team down a rung, the end result of which is Minnesota might end up in the Texas Bowl for a second straight year despite fielding a much better team. The ACC also had a few teams move around or enter the fray (Pittsburgh and Syracuse).

MANDEL: College Football Overtime: FSU looks like No. 1 team after Week 11; more Overtime

Elsewhere, the SEC now has an open spot with Florida predicted to go 5-7, while the Mountain West filled its spot with San Diego State joining the mix. Last week I only had room for four MAC teams; this week there are six. And Notre Dame's loss to Pittsburgh ensures the Irish will in fact be available for some lucky lower-tier game. I'm sticking with the Pizza Bowl for now.

A quick refresher on how all this works:

• After the No. 1 and 2 teams are slotted and replaced, the BCS at-large selection order this year is: 1) Orange, 2) Sugar and 3) Fiesta. The highest-ranked champion from a non-automatic qualifier is guaranteed a BCS berth if it finishes in the top 12 or in the top 16 and ahead of an AQ-conference champion.

• Most bowls are not obligated -- I repeat, NOT OBLIGATED -- to choose in exact order of conference standings. For instance, "Big 12 No. 3" means "third selection of Big 12 teams," not "the Big 12's third-place team." Bowls often pick a team with an inferior record due to geography, anticipated fan travel, the need to avoid a regular-season rematch or good old backroom politicking.

BCS bowls
DateBowlLocationPredicted matchup
Jan. 1RosePasadena, Calif.Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champ)
Jan. 1FiestaGlendale, Ariz.Baylor (Big 12 champ) vs. Fresno State (BCS at-large)
Jan. 2SugarNew OrleansAuburn (BCS at-large) vs. UCF (AAC champ)
Jan. 3OrangeMiamiClemson (BCS at-large) vs. Oregon (BCS at-large)
Jan. 6BCS championshipPasadena, Calif.Alabama (BCS No. 1) vs. Florida State (BCS No. 2)

Other bowls
DateBowlLocationPredicted matchup
Dec. 21New MexicoAlbuquerque, N.M.UNLV (MWC) vs. Oregon St. (Pac-12 No. 7)
Dec. 21Las VegasLas VegasBoise State (MWC No. 1) vs. USC (Pac-12 No. 5)
Dec. 21 Idaho PotatoBoise, IdahoSan Jose State (MWC) vs. Buffalo (MAC)
Dec. 21 New OrleansNew OrleansLouisiana-Lafayette (Sun Belt No. 1) vs. Tulane (C-USA)
Dec. 23 Beef 'O' Brady'sSt. Petersburg, Fla.Toledo (AAC*) vs. Marshall (C-USA)
Dec. 24HawaiiHonoluluSan Diego State (MWC) vs. Rice (C-USA)
Dec. 26 Little CaesarsDetroitNorthern Illinois (MAC) vs. Notre Dame (Big Ten No. 8*)
Dec. 26 Poinsettia San Diego Utah State (MWC No. 2) vs. Syracuse (Army*)
Dec. 27Military Annapolis, Md.Pittsburgh (ACC No. 8) vs. Middle Tennessee State (C-USA)
Dec. 27 TexasHoustonMinnesota (Big Ten No. 6) vs. Kansas State (Big 12 No. 6)
Dec. 27Fight HungerSan Francisco Arizona (Pac-12 No. 6) vs. BYU (BYU)
Dec. 28 PinstripeBronx, N.Y.Rutgers (AAC No. 4) vs. West Virginia (Big 12 No. 7)
Dec. 28 BelkCharlotteHouston (AAC No. 3) vs. Georgia Tech (ACC No. 5)
Dec. 28Russell AthleticOrlandoLouisville (AAC No. 2) vs. Miami (ACC No. 3)
Dec. 28Buffalo Wild WingsTempe, Ariz.Oklahoma (Big 12 No. 4) vs. Nebraska (Big Ten No. 4)
Dec. 30Armed ForcesFort Worth, TexasColorado State (MWC) vs. Navy (Navy)
Dec. 30Music CityNashvilleBoston College (ACC No. 6) vs. Georgia (SEC)
Dec. 30AlamoSan AntonioUCLA (Pac-12 No. 2) vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 3)
Dec. 30Holiday San DiegoArizona State (Pac-12 No. 3) vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 No. 5)
Dec. 31AdvoCareShreveport, La.North Carolina (ACC No. 7) vs. Bowling Green (SEC*)
Dec. 31SunEl Paso, TexasDuke (ACC No. 4) vs. Washington (Pac-12 No. 4)
Dec. 31LibertyMemphisEast Carolina (C-USA No. 1) vs. Tennessee (SEC)
Dec. 31Chick-fil-AAtlantaVirginia Tech (ACC No. 2) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
Jan. 1Heart of DallasDallasIowa (Big Ten No. 7) vs. North Texas (C-USA)
Jan. 1GatorJacksonvilleMichigan (Big Ten No. 5) vs. Ole Miss (SEC)
Jan. 1OutbackTampaMichigan State (Big Ten No. 3) vs. Missouri (SEC)
Jan. 1Capital OneOrlandoTexas A&M (SEC No. 2) vs. Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 2)
Jan. 3CottonArlington, TexasTexas (Big 12 No. 2) vs. LSU (SEC)
Jan. 4BBVA CompassBirmingham, Ala.Cincinnati (AAC) vs. Vanderbilt (SEC)
Jan. 5GoDaddyMobile, Ala.Ball State (MAC) vs. Arkansas State (Sun Belt)

Teams in bold have accepted a bid.

* -- Replacement team for a conference without an eligible team

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