Can Arkansas pull off the upset against Alabama? The Razorbacks are 14-point home underdogs against the Crimson Tide.

By OddsShark
October 04, 2016

The Arkansas Razorbacks are 11–3 straight up and 9–5 against the spread over their last 14 games. The Razorbacks will try to shake up the SEC with an upset win over the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday night in Fayetteville.

Arkansas is a 14-point home underdog for Saturday’s game at sportsbooks monitored by As a nine-point underdog at home against the Crimson Tide in 2014, the Razorbacks covered the spread in a 14–13 loss.

The Razorbacks are just 7–22 SU and 16–15 ATS in their last 29 games against SEC opponents, but they’ve been turning the tides in conference play in recent seasons. Arkansas is 7–5 SU and 8–4 ATS in its last 12 games against SEC foes with a current stretch of 6–2 ATS. 

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This season’s conference schedule is not off to a good start with a 45–24 loss on the road to Texas A&M, and it doesn’t get much easier with Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn and LSU on the horizon.

Since 1997, Arkansas has been a double-digit underdog at home only eight times. The Razorbacks are 6–2 ATS in those eight games but have no outright upsets per the OddsShark College Football Database.

Alabama has been one of the most reliable road teams in college football over the last five seasons, boasting a 20–2 SU and 12-9-1 ATS record in its last 22 games on the road.

The Crimson Tide had a 4–0 ATS winning streak snapped in failing to cover as a 10-point favorite in a 48–43 win over Ole Miss in September, but did improve to 8–0 SU in its last eight road games with that win. In their last 13 road games coming off consecutive home wins, Alabama is 12–1 SU and 10–3 ATS.

The total for Saturday’s game is set at 49 points. The UNDER is 4–1 in Alabama’s last five games played in the month of October.

After losing the previous two games in this head-to-head series 52–0, Arkansas lost to Alabama by only one point in 2014 and 13 points in 2015. The Razorbacks will need to take another big step forward to snap their nine-game losing streak against the defending champions.

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