Last season’s Arkansas-Ole Miss game saw a crazy lateral on fourth-and-25 and an OT win for the Razorbacks. What will happen this year? The Rebels enter as road favorites.
The Arkansas Razorbacks are 5–2 straight up and 6–1 against the spread in their last seven home games against the Ole Miss Rebels. The Razorbacks will be the underdog at home against the Rebels this Saturday night.
Arkansas is a 7.5-point home underdog in Fayetteville at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. In their last 10 games as a home underdog, the Razorbacks are just 1–9 SU and 5–5 ATS, but that one outright win came against Ole Miss in 2014.
The Razorbacks passed for 400 yards and scored 30 points on Alabama’s stingy defense last Saturday, but it wasn’t enough to make a difference in a 49–30 loss at home.
Arkansas’s defensive numbers on the season are helped by home games against Texas State and Alcorn State, but against Power Five opponents the Razorbacks are allowing 44 points per game. This will be a tough trend to turn around against the Rebels, who rank 15th nationally in scoring with 41.6 points per game.
Dating back to 2012, Arkansas is just 7–23 SU and 15–15 ATS in its last 30 games against SEC opponents per the OddsShark College Football Database.
Ole Miss entered its bye last week with a 3–2 SU and ATS record on the season, covering the spread in each of its last three games with a close loss to Alabama and blowout wins over Georgia and Memphis. After playing each of their last four games at home, the Rebels will now need to play their next two games on the road, where they are 4–7 SU and 3–7–1 ATS in their last 11 games. Ole Miss is 7–5 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a bye.
The total on Saturday is set at 67 points at the sportsbooks. The OVER is 4–1 in Arkansas’s last five games against teams with winning records.
The Rebels have scored at least 34 points in every game they’ve played this season, and are allowing 29.6 points per game on defense. Both of these teams have been comfortable in shootouts, and as indicated by the high total, this game has the makings of one with plenty of fireworks on offense.