Forde Minutes: After Rash of Upsets, Is the Contender Pool Expanding?

Plus, the most important Coach K teams, picks for the first wave of men’s conference tournaments and more.

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in men’s college basketball (court storming sold separately, after a weekend of upsets):

FATAL FLAWS REVEALED? OR JUST A FORESEEABLE TRAP WEEKEND?

Saturday produced unprecedented carnage among the putative national title contenders, with the top six teams in the men’s AP poll and seven of the top 10 all losing. Part of this was scheduling happenstance—the losers were all playing quality opponents on the road. But this flurry of defeats also served as a reminder that there is no super team in 2022. That became evident when every team had at least one loss by mid-January. Now every team but Murray State has at least three losses, and only two teams (the Racers and South Dakota State) are still undefeated in conference play.

Arkansas's JD Notae, Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren and Providence's A.J. Reeves.

Nelson Chenault, Darren Yamashita, Marc Lebryk/USA TODAY Sports

The Minutes takes a look at the top six that were taken down and examines them for serious defects:

Gonzaga (1) was beaten handily Saturday at Saint Mary’s. The Bulldogs never led and trailed by double digits for almost the entire final 26 minutes while being held to a season-low 57 points.

The potential fatal flaw: Are the Zags tough enough? Level of concern: moderate.

After Gonzaga was punked by Baylor last year for the national title, this looked like a similar scenario against Saint Mary’s on Saturday. Get up into leading scorer Drew Timme, knock them all around a little, force them into an uncomfortable style; how do they respond?

“They were extremely more aggressive,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few said of the Gaels. “They got after us and played us really, really physical. That was it. When you’re the most aggressive team and most physical team, probably nine times out of 10 you’re going to win.”

Timme looked like the best player in the men’s NCAA tournament last year until Baylor got after him physically. He’s a skilled big man who likes to have time and space to operate, and the Gaels refused to give it to him. They swarmed Timme, forcing him into easily his worst shooting game of the season, going 2-for-10 for a season-low six points.

“He got his touches but after three or four bounces we had three guys surrounding him and knocking the ball out of his hands in the first half,” said Saint Mary’s big man Matthias Tass. “That kind of ruined his rhythm. It was hard for him to bounce back from that.”

Timme likely will see the same tactics from the Gaels if the two teams meet next week in the West Coast Conference championship game. And then again from opponents in the tournament that really matters. How he responds will be vital to Gonzaga’s national championship hopes.

Kentucky (2) followed its recent trend of falling behind by double digits in the first half and then rallying, but this time it couldn’t finish it in the final minutes at Arkansas. John Calipari presumptuously sent his bench players to the locker room with time still on the clock in case of a court storm, but there was none.

The potential fatal flaw: Who is the consistent second option? Level of concern: low-to-moderate.

Oscar Tshiebwe isn’t just a rock of consistency—he’s a boulder. The supporting cast comes and goes. Kellan Grady, Keion Brooks, Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington Jr. all have had great games, but they also have disappeared at times. Grady was a no-show against the Razorbacks and not much better in a Feb. 15 loss to Tennessee. Washington and Wheeler have battled injuries and have durability concerns. Brooks has scored in single digits in three of the last five games.

Maybe a rotating cast of second options can work, as long as someone has a hot hand. Kentucky needs to have someone ready, willing and able to step up and score when Tshiebwe finds himself surrounded in the postseason.

Kansas (3) got thumped in the return game against Baylor, three weeks after pounding the Bears in Lawrence. Despite being down one of their key frontcourt players, Baylor’s big men were better than Kansas’s big men.

The potential fatal flaw: Do the Jayhawks have enough in the middle to make a deep run, especially defensively? Level of concern: moderate to significant.

This is not an elite Bill Self defensive team, and a lot of that comes from lacking a dependable paint presence. For a team that doesn’t successfully turn over opponents, the Jayhawks also don’t defend inside the arc, block shots or dominate the defensive glass at their customary level. Baylor dramatically exploited that Saturday, with 6'10" Flo Thamba scoring a career-high 18 points and freshmen Jeremy Sochan and Kendall Brown combining for 26 points when Scott Drew went smaller inside.

Kansas has some NBA-level firepower that will allow it to win shootouts if need be. But it might find itself a little light in the middle to make a Final Four unless David McCormack plays the best basketball of his career in March.

Arizona (4) lost at Colorado yet again, extending its streak without a win there to seven years. Boulder is traditionally a tough place for visitors, but this year the Buffaloes have lost five home games. The Wildcats let the game get away in the second half, playing like the young team they are.

The potential fatal flaw: Lack of experience. Level of concern: moderate to significant.

Arizona has size, talent, skill and athleticism. It also is a collection of players bereft of NCAA tournament experience, playing for a rookie head coach. Tommy Lloyd has been there a bunch as Mark Few’s top assistant, but this will be a new role for him and a completely new role for his players.

Point guard Kerr Kriisa is gifted enough to record a triple double one game (21 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists at Utah) and green enough to go for 5-2-5 the next. Leading scorer Bennedict Mathurin can put 12 points on the board in the first half against Colorado and zero in the second. Befitting a young team, the turnover rate is higher than ideal (though part of that can be attributed to playing at a super-fast tempo).

Arizona has played with admirable consistency this season. But the dynamics change in March, and the one unanswered question is how the Wildcats will handle the crucible of a sudden-elimination tournament.

Auburn (5) ran its streak of struggling road performances to five with its loss at Tennessee. Before that were losses at Florida and Arkansas, and before those were one-point wins over SEC dregs Georgia and Missouri. The Tigers’ last strong road showing was Jan. 15—so long ago that there was no public plot to oust the football coach yet.

The potential fatal flaw: the ball being in the wrong hands and the wrong times. Level of concern: significant.

There is no doubting Auburn’s talent. The Tigers are big, fast, athletic and fearless, with a potential No. 1 pick in Jabari Smith and a dominant paint presence in Walker Kessler. Given that, why is the ball in the hands of Wendell Green Jr. more than anyone else on the team?

The Eastern Kentucky transfer was 2-for-15 from the field against the Volunteers, and 2-for-10 against the Gators—including a last possession wherein he essentially dribbled out the clock and Smith was just another onlooker. He also had seven turnovers in the loss to Arkansas. There are 222 players who have attempted at least 160 three-pointers this season, according to stathead.com, and Green ranks in the bottom 10 of them in terms of accuracy at 30.9%.

Auburn is dazzling when everything is going the Tigers’ way. They have to show that they possess the necessary cohesion, poise and unselfishness to execute when the game becomes a grind.

Purdue (6) remains the nation’s best offensive team and a defensive sieve after losing at Michigan State. The Spartans shot 45% from three-point range (their best number in six games) and committed just 10 turnovers (their fewest in a Big Ten game this season). The Boilermakers now must win Tuesday at Wisconsin to keep hopes alive for a conference title.

The potential fatal flaw: Can Purdue guard well enough to make a Final Four? Level of concern: significant to urgent.

With a triple-digit national defensive efficiency ranking, according to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, Purdue is well outside the realm where contenders traditionally reside. The Boilers can simply out-execute and out-shoot a lot of teams, and they might look better defensively when they get out of Big Ten play. But eventually a contender has to get stops, and that remains a major question for this team.

A NEW CAST OF CONTENDERS?

If the teams everyone liked the most nine days ago all look vulnerable today, who is rising to challenge them? The Minutes has a list of surging teams that are expanding the pool of contenders:

Arkansas (7). The Razorbacks started SEC play 0–3 and have won 13 out of 14 games since—and the lone loss was by a point at Alabama. It took a while, but this team now is resembling the fierce bunch that made the Elite Eight last year. In a league that has, in turns, featured LSU and Alabama and Auburn and Kentucky, it’s now Arkansas looming as the hottest team. (But don’t forget about Tennessee, either.) Guard JD Notae was in full takeover mode last week, averaging 26 points and 5.5 assists in victories over Kentucky and Florida.

Wisconsin (8). On a four-game winning streak, the Badgers have a Big Ten title within reach with a one-game lead and Purdue and Nebraska coming to the Kohl Center this week. They are the masters of crunch time, having won their last 13 games that were decided by six points or less. There isn’t much of a transfer portal infusion with this team; the starting five all have played every college game in a Wisconsin uniform. Johnny Davis is the emergent star, a National Player of the Year candidate.

Saint Mary’s (9). Gonzaga had won 34 straight games against West Coast Conference competition until Saturday night in Moraga. The Gaels were already securely in the NCAA field, but now their seeding should be rising. They are the anti-Zags stylistically, preferring to play at a deliberate pace, but have a similar affinity for international recruiting and having serious size on the roster. This is probably Randy Bennett’s best defensive team in his long Saint Mary’s tenure.

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Duke (10). In Mike Krzyzewski’s finał season, we might actually be talking too little about his current team. The Blue Devils are good and getting better, having won seven straight road games and riding a six-game overall winning streak. What they did to Syracuse on Saturday was viciously beautiful: 97 points, 15 made threes, 26 assists and just six turnovers. They remain in the rejiggered hunt for a No. 1 seed, and seemingly have all the parts for one final Coach K March Madness run.

Baylor (11). The Bears lost a lot from the 2020–21 national championship team, but they reminded us how solidly the program was built by starting this season 15–0 and returning to No. 1 in the rankings. Then some adversity hit in the brutal Big 12, and we probably downplayed them too readily. Now, the Bears are back in the mix as they head to Austin on Monday night to play Texas. Keep an eye on the freshman Sochan; he’s making a late-season statement with more than just his green hair.

Providence (12). The Friars have rarely been this good and never been this much of a lightning rod. They’re a charter member of the Big East but just clinched their first league title, which is where the controversy starts to come in. Providence (14–2 in the league) is playing just 17 Big East games due to COVID-19 cancellations, while second-place Villanova (14–4) is playing 20 and has a chance to sweep the Friars this week in Philadelphia. Then there are the metrics that don’t much care for Providence—Ken Pomeroy has the Friars ranked 39th and the NCAA NET puts them at 25th, while the human polls have them ninth (AP) and eighth (coaches). We’ll find out who’s right next month.

Coach K on Duke’s sideline in 1986.

Malcolm Emmons/USA TODAY Sports

THE MOST IMPORTANT COACH K TEAMS

This is the 42nd Duke basketball team coached by Mike Krzyzewski (13), a staggering run of longevity that exceeds even that of Adolph Rupp at Kentucky and is exceeded among current coaches only by Jim Boeheim at Syracuse.

As we reach the end of K’s run, it’s time to ask the kind of questions he hates to answer: comparing his former teams. Not just in terms of the best, but the most important. The Minutes talked to a half-dozen media friends and got some interesting responses.

There were the obvious ones:

1990–91—This was K’s first national title team (14). It also was Duke’s first men’s basketball natty. That team famously reversed a 30-point loss to juggernaut UNLV in the previous season’s Final Four, and it also ended a string of four losses in the Final Four short of the title.

1985–86—This was his first Final Four team (15), the group that won 37 games and stamped Krzyzewski as a heavyweight coach before losing to Louisville in the championship game. That team featured future coaches Johnny Dawkins, Quin Snyder and Tommy Amaker; future NBA execs Danny Ferry and Billy King; and future respected TV analyst Jay Bilas.

1991–92—This was the Duke repeat champs (16), and the first men’s repeat titleists since UCLA in 1972–73. Those Blue Devils were ranked No. 1 every week of the season but had to survive what many still consider the greatest college basketball game ever played, the 104–103 regional final clash with Kentucky. That team both elevated the celebrity appeal of Duke basketball and the antipathy toward the program, with Christian Laettner playing a major role in both those dynamics.

And the less obvious:

1983–84—This one came from premier Duke-ologist John Feinstein, who noted that it was K’s first NCAA tournament team (17) after three lackluster seasons had alums calling for his ouster. A victory over Michael Jordan and North Carolina in the ACC tournament semifinals “changed the trajectory of the rivalry,” Feinstein said.

1986–87—This was the team that showed Duke was built to last (18) after the departure of cornerstone recruits Dawkins, Mark Alarie, Bilas and David Henderson. Bilas noted that the Blue Devils’ going 24–9 and making the Sweet 16, where they pushed eventual national champion Indiana, “showed that it wasn’t a one-class program.”

1995–96—The team that brought K back from the brink (19). The season before, Krzyzewski took a leave after just 12 games to be treated for a back injury and exhaustion. That team spiraled to a 13–18 record, and the next season was on shaky ground heading into a Jan. 18 game at North Carolina State. Duke was 9–6, 0–4 in the ACC, and trailing the Wolfpack by a point in the final seconds. Chris Collins hit a shot for the win, and the Devils won nine of their next 13 to squeak back into the NCAA tourney. They never missed another one until the pandemic hit. “Lose that game, maybe they don’t get it back,” Bilas said. “They went to the tournament, but if Collins missed, they don’t.”

Every Duke Sports Illustrated Cover Under Coach K

THE BIG LETDOWNS

Schools with strong basketball followings and traditions that aren’t giving the fans much bang for their bucks in recent years:

Louisville (20). Current status: With an interim coach and a disjointed roster, the Cardinals are in disarray. Their record is 12–16, and they’re 1–9 in the last 10. Last NCAA appearance: 2019. Last NCAA victory: 2017, four coaches ago. A program that is annually among the attendance and revenue leaders is in desperate need of a reboot and will get it soon.

North Carolina State (21). Current status: After being a perpetual bubble team in Kevin Keatts’s first three seasons, the Wolfpack weren’t close last season and are worse this year. They’re 11–18 and No. 132 in the Pomeroy Ratings—two spots lower than Louisville. Last NCAA appearance: 2018. Last NCAA victory: 2015. NC State has been in the top 25 nationally in attendance every season this century (pre-pandemic) but hasn’t delivered much to its fans.

Indiana (22). Current status: Mike Woodson was a popular hire as a former player, but so far his first team isn’t much better than anything from the Archie Miller Era. The Hoosiers flirted with a historic, season-ruining collapse Sunday against Minnesota, building a 27-point lead with less than nine minutes to play and wheezing to the finish with a five-point win. That keeps Indiana (18–10, 9–9 in the Big Ten) on the bubble with games this week against Rutgers and Purdue. Last NCAA appearance: 2016. Last NCAA victory: 2016.

New Mexico (23). Current status: The Lobos are 12–17 overall, 4–11 in the Mountain West in the first season under Richard Pitino, who had the bad luck to arrive for what might be the deepest the league has ever been. New Mexico had 19 straight .500 or better seasons from 1984 to 2002, and 17 straight from 1963 to ’79. Last NCAA appearance: 2014. Last NCAA victory: 2012.

St. John’s (24). Current status: The Johnnies are 15–13, 7–10 in the Big East, and haven’t won more than two straight league games all season. This is Year 3 for Mike Anderson, who follows four years of Chris Mullin, five years of Steve Lavin and six years of Norm Roberts. None of which have amounted to much. Last NCAA appearance: 2019. Last NCAA victory: 2000, which is mind-boggling.

Can KJ Williams (No. 0) and Murray State follow-up their 18–0 mark in OVC play with a tournament title? 

Steve Roberts/USA TODAY Sports

THE LITTLE DANCE

As of today, almost every one of the 358 Division I men’s basketball teams can dream of making the NCAA tournament—heck, even winning the whole thing. Win your league tournament, make the Big Dance, shoot for your One Shining Moment. The true process of elimination begins this week with first 13 conference tourneys, and The Minutes has all the pertinent info plus predictions:

America East (25).

When: March 5–12.

Top seed: Vermont. Everyone in the league has regular-season games left this week, but the Catamounts (24–5, 16–1) locked up the top spot long ago. This is the sixth straight season Vermont has won or shared the league title, but John Becker’s team has had some star-crossed tourney moments.

Dark horse: Hartford is just 10–18, 8–8 in the league, but is the only team to have beaten Vermont this season and has won five of its last seven. Hartford also upset the Catamounts to win last year’s automatic bid. Since then, the Hawks’ school leadership opted to drop down to Division III effective at a later date, against the strenuous objections of coach John Gallagher.

Best player: Pick a Catamount, either guard Ben Shungu or postman Ryan Davis. The Minutes will go with Shungu, who is averaging 15.9 points per game and shooting a sizzling 52% from three-point range in league play.

Best tourney coach: Becker is 19–6 in this event with three America East titles, but also has had some shocking upset losses.

Obscure point of interest: New Hampshire has played in the league since 1982. Not only have the Wildcats never won the men’s America East tournament—thus never making the NCAAs—they have never even reached the final.

Minutes pick: It’s impossible to pick against Vermont here.

Atlantic Sun (26)

When: March 1–8.

Top seed: Liberty and Jacksonville State won their respective divisions and took top seeds into the quarterfinals. The Flames have the higher Pomeroy Rating but the Gamecocks have the better league record at 13–3.

Dark horse: Florida Gulf Coast has won seven of its last eight to enter the tournament on a roll.

Best player: Liberty guard Darius McGhee is a 5'9" scoring machine, coming off a 47-point performance to close the regular season—and that’s not his career high. He had 48 in January against FGCU. McGhee is averaging 33.7 points over his last six games.

Best tourney coach: Liberty’s Ritchie McKay has won the last three A-Sun tournaments. But don’t overlook Jax State’s Ray Harper, who previously has worked some magic to win the Ohio Valley tourney once and Sun Belt twice as a long shot in all three instances.

Obscure point of interest: Six of the league’s 12 teams have been added to the conference since 2018, including three this season (Jacksonville State and Eastern Kentucky from the OVC, and Central Arkansas from the Southland).

Minutes pick: Jacksonville State is playing well, defeated Liberty on the road in their only matchup and has a trio of three-point shooters who can carry the Gamecocks through three games.

Big South (27)

When: March 2–6.

Top seed: Longwood. The Lancers sliced through the league at 15–1 and have lost just one game since before Christmas. That said: They have won a ton of close games, with 13 of their 15 victories by single digits.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed Gardner-Webb has won eight of its last 10, but might have to contend with Winthrop in the semifinals. The Bulldogs have lost six straight to the Eagles.

Best player: UNC Asheville’s Drew Pember is third in the league in scoring (15.4 points per game), second in rebounding (6.6) and first in blocked shots (3.0).

Best tourney coach: There is exactly one coach in this tournament who has won the thing. That’s Gardner-Webb’s Tim Craft, whose team grabbed the title in 2019.

Obscure point of interest: Presbyterian guard Rayshon Harrison is the most unrepentant gunner in college basketball. He’s launched 197 threes while making only 45, a 22.8% accuracy clip. Harrison has made just seven of his last 49, but continues firing. You have to love the optimism of a shooter who always thinks the next one is going in, past results to the contrary.

Minutes pick: When in doubt, go with Winthrop. The Eagles are under new leadership in Mark Prosser, but they’re on an eight-game winning streak and have hit their stride since guard Patrick Good became a consistent offensive force in the last two weeks.

Colonial (28)

When: March 5–8.

Top seed: That’s still to be determined Monday, in a strange scenario. Towson has to finish the final 18:42 of its game against Delaware, which was postponed in late January due to unsafe (i.e., slippery) court conditions. Towson brings a nine-point deficit into the remainder of the game, which is scheduled for a 6 p.m. tipoff. If Towson wins, it is the No. 1 seed. If not, UNC Wilmington gets it.

Dark horse: Hofstra has won seven of its last eight heading into a regular-season finale against Charleston. First-year coach Speedy Claxton has the Pride playing faster and more efficiently on offense.

Best player: Hofstra guard Aaron Estrada leads the league in scoring (18.2 points) and assists (4.9) while also ranking 10th in rebounding (5.8) and seventh in steals (1.5). He also is shooting 94% from the foul line, for good measure.

Best tourney coach: Northeastern’s Bill Coen has won the league twice, but he’s a decided long shot with this year’s last-place squad.

Obscure point of interest: It gets no more obscure and interesting than the resumption of an interrupted game one month after it was played, with the league title and No. 1 seed on the line.

Minutes pick: Towson. In his 11th season on the job, Pat Skerry has his best team. Deep and experienced, it’s time for the program to make its first NCAA tournament since 1991.

Horizon (29)

When: March 1–8.

Top seed: Cleveland State. The defending tourney champions slumped at the end, losing their final two games to share the regular-season title with Purdue Fort Wayne.

Dark horse: No. 5 seed Oakland could create some chaos. The Grizzlies could be looking at a quarterfinal game against a Cleveland State team it swept during the regular season.

Best player: Detroit’s Antoine Davis, son of coach Mike, has refined his game to become more of a well-rounded player and less of a gunner. He’s third nationally in scoring at 23.7 points per game.

Best tourney coach: Oakland’s Greg Kampe has won three league tournament titles, though the last one was in 2011.

Obscure point of interest: Wright State won the league outright or shared the title in each of the previous three seasons without winning the Horizon tournament. In 2020 and ’21, the Raiders were upset in their first game.

Minutes pick: In what could be a completely wide-open affair, No. 2 seed Purdue Fort Wayne enters as the hot team. The Mastodons are on a nine-game winning streak and have a point guard who led Mount St. Mary’s to the Big Dance last year in 5'8" transfer Damian Chong Qui. He’s upped his game in recent weeks.

Missouri Valley (30)

When: March 3–6.

Top seed: Northern Iowa finished strong, taking the league title and top seed away from Loyola Chicago on the final day of the regular season in overtime. The Panthers have won nine of their last 10, riding the hot hand of shooter AJ Green down the stretch.

Dark horse: Loyola plummeted to a No. 4 seed with five losses in its final 13 games, but the Ramblers remain far ahead of the competition in analytics rankings. The only problem: They haven’t won three straight games since Jan. 11–18, and that’s what it will take to win this tourney.

Best player: Crowded field for this honor, but Loyola’s Lucas Williamson ranks among the MVC’s leaders in scoring, assists, steals and three-point percentage. Williamson was part of the 2018 Final Four team and a key cog in last year’s Sweet 16 team.

Best tourney coach: Bradley’s Brian Wardle won this tournament in 2019 and ’20, but Northern Iowa’s Ben Jacobson has won it four times in his tenure.

Obscure point of interest: Northern Iowa hasn’t lost an Arch Madness game since 2020, but hasn’t won the tournament since 2019. Last year the Panthers won their first game over Illinois State, then had to drop out of the tourney due to COVID-19 issues.

Minutes pick: No. 3 seed Drake has reached the championship game the previous two seasons and is on a five-game winning streak. The Bulldogs have four senior starters who were part of those near misses, plus freshman coach’s son Tucker DeVries. The hunger and experience are there.

Northeast (31)

When: Feb. 28–March 8.

Top seed: Bryant. Thanks to a sweep of Wagner that was completed Saturday, the Bulldogs have won the league for the first time in school history.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed LIU enters on a six-game winning streak and is the only team to have beaten Bryant in the Bulldogs’ last 14 games.

Best player: Bryant’s Peter Kiss leads the nation in scoring at 25.1 points per game, despite seeing his three-point percentage plunge from 42% last year to 28% this year. He’s scored 23 or more in his last 11 games, and has exceeded 30 points nine times this season.

Best tourney coach: Fairleigh Dickinson’s Greg Herenda has won this event twice, but don’t get your hopes up for a third time this season. The Knights are 4–21.

Obscure point of interest: With three all-time victories, the NEC has the fewest men’s NCAA tournament wins of any current Division I conference. All three of those wins have come in play-in games.

Minutes pick: With Wagner’s late swoon and LIU’s hot streak, the Blackbirds are the pick. Eral Penn made eight threes in the season finale; maybe that’s the start of something big for him this week?

Ohio Valley (32)

When: March 2–5.

Top seed: Murray State stormed through the league undefeated, and at 28–2 has the best winning percentage in the nation. The Racers did survive a huge scare in the regular-season finale, rallying from 12 points down in the final six minutes to beat Southeast Missouri State. They’re probably a lock for an at-large bid if they don’t win this tournament.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed Morehead State won this tourney a year ago and returns dynamic big man Johni Broome from that team. But the Eagles didn’t finish well, losing four of their last six.

Best player: Murray big man KJ Williams has blossomed this season, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, steals and blocks. He’s averaging 25.7 points over the last six games.

Best tourney coach: Murray’s Matt McMahon is 8–4, with consecutive OVC titles in 2018 and ’19 and a one-point loss in the title game in ’20.

Obscure point of interest: Murray’s ’18 and ’19 titles marks the only repeat in the OVC tourney this century. Eight different schools have won the league tourney since 2000.

Minutes pick: Cannot pick against the Racers, who beat No. 2 seed Belmont twice by an average of 27.5 points. A matchup with Morehead and Broome in the title game would be interesting, if the Eagles can get by the Bruins in the semifinal. If anyone other than Murray, Belmont or Morehead wins, it would be a massive shock.

Patriot (33)

When: March 1–9.

Top seed: Colgate. The Raiders completely dominated the league, going 16–2 and winning 16 of their last 17. Colgate won the tourney last year and made Arkansas uncomfortable for more than a half in the NCAA tournament before submitting—and all the players on this team were part of that one. This is a good three-point shooting team that hung 100 on Syracuse in the Carrier Dome in November.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed Boston U is the only team to beat Colgate since Jan. 4. The Terriers have won five of their last seven and nine of their last 12.

Best player: Sukhmail Mathon. The Boston U big man has increased his consistency and productivity, routinely producing double doubles. Mathon leads the league in rebounding (10.3 per game) and is sixth in scoring at 15.1. He had 22 and 11 in the upset of Colgate in late January.

Best tourney coach: Colgate’s Matt Langel has won two of the last four Patriot tourneys, and advanced to the final game in the other two.

Obscure point of interest: The military branch of the Patriot League has not thrived in postseason play. Neither Army nor Navy has made the men’s NCAA tournament this century—and Army, in fact, has never made it.

Minutes pick: Colgate. The Raiders have five players averaging double figures. If one player struggles, there are four more to pick up the slack.

Southern (34)

When: March 4–7.

Top seed: Chattanooga.

Dark horse: Samford. The Bulldogs, looking for their first NCAA berth since 2000, have won six of their last seven and nine of 11. In their second season under former high school coach Bucky McMillan, Samford is creating havoc with pressure defense and shooting a lot of threes—sort of an old-school Rick Pitino approach.

Best player: Malachi Smith of Chattanooga leads the league in scoring at 20.3 while also ranking in the top 10 in field goal shooting percentage, three-point percentage, free throw percentage, assists and steals. The 6'4" guard has been rock-solid all season.

Best tourney coach: Not a single current coach in the league has won a Division I conference tournament title. Few of them have even won a game.

Obscure point of interest: See above.

Minutes pick: This is a good league to take a flyer, since nobody is a proven postseason commodity and top seeds Chattanooga and Furman have had notable pratfalls in recent seasons. So the pick is No. 4 seed Wofford.

Summit (35)

When: March 5–8.

Top seed: South Dakota State. At 18–0, SDSU joined Murray State as the only teams to sweep their league schedule. In conference play they’re the best in the Summit both offensively and defensively, per Ken Pomeroy’s metrics.

Dark horse: Oral Roberts. You remember what these guys did last year—winning the league tourney in dramatic fashion and then riding that wave to NCAA tourney upsets of Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16. Scoring machine Max Abmas is back from that team, as is coach Paul Mills. Beware the Golden Eagles.

Best player: Douglas Wilson, South Dakota State. A classic mid-major interior player at 6'7", Wilson has only attempted four threes this season and nine in three years. He upped his scoring to 20.7 per game in leading the Jackrabbits to their undefeated conference record.

Best tourney coach: North Dakota State’s David Richman has won three Summit tourneys, most recently going back-to-back in 2019–20.

Obscure point of interest: Oral Roberts last year was the only school other than North Dakota State and South Dakota State to win the Summit since 2011, when Oakland was in the league.

Minutes pick: South Dakota State gets payback for the flukish semifinal loss last year to Oral Roberts, which unleashed the Golden Eagles on March Madness.

Sun Belt (36)

When: March 3–7.

Top seed: Texas State. The Bobcats won their second straight league championship and carry a nine-game winning streak into the postseason. They were perfect at home this year and won their final five last year in San Marcos.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed Georgia State enters on a seven-game winning streak and having won nine of 10. The Panthers have bounced back after some COVID-19 cancellations threw the schedule into upheaval and left them with only 25 games.

Best player: Norchad Omier of Arkansas State is a mid-major Oscar Tshiebwe, averaging 17.2 points and 12 rebounds for the Red Wolves. Omier had a 26-rebound game against Louisiana Monroe on Feb. 3.

Best tourney coach: Dustin Kerns’s Appalachian State team won last year’s tourney after entering it with a 13–11 record, 7–8 in the league. But Coastal Carolina’s Cliff Ellis has won two of them, back in 2014 and ’15.

Obscure point of interest: Texas State’s season has ended the last two Marches against Appalachian State. Last year, the Bobcats were upset by the Mountaineers. In 2020, they defeated App State on March 11 and then had the tournament shut down on them the next day.

Minutes pick: Texas State is the best team and hungry for its first NCAA bid since 1997.

West Coast (37)

When: March 3–8.

Top seed: Gonzaga. This was never in doubt.

Dark horse: No. 3 seed Santa Clara has been a pain in the neck this season for a bunch of teams, including likely semifinal opponent Saint Mary’s. Being on the opposite side of the bracket from Gonzaga is fundamental to being a viable long shot in this league, and the Broncos are there.

Best player: Chet Holmgren. You could certainly put Timme in this spot, but Holmgren has the ability to stuff the stat sheet in every category. The stringbean freshman could be on the verge of a big postseason that reignites the debate about who should be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft.

Best tourney coach: Mark Few. He’s won so many of these that he’s assuredly lost track of the whereabouts of trophies, snippets of net and other spoils of WCC victory.

Obscure point of interest: Gonzaga has played either BYU or Saint Mary’s in its final WCC tournament game for 13 straight years.

Minutes pick: Gonzaga, maybe?

COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK

Randy Bennett (38), Saint Mary’s. Slayed the Gonzaga beast Saturday to complete an undefeated regular season at home and one of the best seasons in school history. And the Gaels aren’t done yet. They’ll be a problem in the NCAAs.

COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK

Travis Steele (39), Xavier. The fourth-year head coach’s quest for his first NCAA bid has run aground amid a four-game losing streak. The Musketeers are back on the bubble heading into a pair of must-win games this week, at St. John’s and home against Georgetown. If they don’t win both, they take a ton of pressure to make a big run with them into the Big East tournament next week.

BUZZER BEATER

When thirsty in Seattle, congratulations. You’re drinking in one of the best beer cities in America. Specifically, check out CRFT Beers (40), an unassuming little joint in a strip mall that becomes Beer Nirvana upon entry. They have around 40 offerings on tap at any time, plus a massive array of West Coast canned and bottled beverages for take-home. Have a seat at one of the picnic tables and try a flight of IPAs—the Sticky Hands Tropical Slam IPA is particularly tasty—and thank The Minutes later.

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