Bracket Watch: Everything on the Line on Championship Saturday

Virginia Tech and Texas A&M are among the teams looking to stunningly earn a men’s NCAA tournament bid

It’s Championship Saturday, and 15 men’s NCAA tournament autobids are set to be handed out throughout the day as a number of conference tourney finals are settled. As always, this means big implications for the March Madness field of 68...

Bubble storylines

Texas A&M’s red-hot week in Tampa continued, and a dominant win over Arkansas is just enough to put the Aggies into the field—for now. The huge margin of victory in the win gave a nine-spot boost for TAMU in KenPom, and you can expect a similar jump in the NET when it updates Sunday morning. The easiest route remains for the Aggies to win the SEC tournament and secure the automatic bid, but Buzz Williams’s team has a real chance to dance even if it falters tomorrow.

Virginia Tech is truly right on the bubble after blowing out North Carolina Friday night, and enters Saturday as the first team out of the field. The biggest sell for the Hokies is their quality metrics—No. 25 in KenPom and No. 20 in ESPN’s BPI coming into Saturday. A win over Duke in the ACC championship game would take it out of the committee’s hands and shrink the bubble by a spot.

SMU gets its third crack at Memphis after beating the Tigers twice in the regular season. The Mustangs received a nice bump in metrics by blowing out Tulsa Friday, and a win over Memphis should lock up their spot in the field heading into the AAC title game Sunday. A loss wouldn’t eliminate them, but would likely send Tim Jankovich’s team to Dayton.

The biggest threat to the four teams who entered Saturday occupying the “Last Four In” moniker (Wyoming, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Xavier) is the fact that they are sitting at home while others can shrink the bubble. Virginia Tech can officially steal a bid with a win today. Texas A&M might well jump a team in that group with a win. An A-10 team other than Davidson winning the league’s autobid would take away another bubble spot. Saint Louis beating Davidson in Saturday’s semifinal would clinch a bid steal in the A-10 and move the cut line up by a spot.

Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports

Other bracket storylines

Baylor stayed as our No. 2 overall seed in the field after losing to Oklahoma Thursday, but that loss opened the door for Arizona to jump it for the chance to play in the South Region. If the Wildcats beat UCLA Saturday in the Pac-12 championship game, they’ll move to the No. 2 overall slot unless we get word that point guard Kerr Kriisa is out for a more extended period of time. Baylor’s place on the No. 1 line isn’t completely secure either if Kansas wins the Big 12 tournament and Kentucky wins the SEC tournament.

To climb back onto the No. 2 line, Duke needs to beat Virginia Tech Saturday and see either Tennessee or Villanova lose in their respective conference tournaments. Otherwise, the Blue Devils will likely stick as the top No. 3 seed in the field.

Providence getting blown out by Creighton opened the door for a team to jump it onto the No. 4 line. The team with the clearest path to do that is Iowa if the Hawkeyes can win the Big Ten tournament. Every other No. 5 seed has already finished conference tournament play, so the Hawkeyes can climb while others stand pat. The other team that could make a push for that spot is Houston if the Cougars can win the AAC tournament and finally get a second Q1 win.

Saturday’s autobids to be awarded:

• America East: UMBC at Vermont
• MEAC: Norfolk State vs. Coppin State
• MAAC: Monmouth vs. Saint Peter’s
• Big 12: Texas Tech vs. Kansas
• Mountain West: San Diego State vs. Boise State
• SWAC: Texas Southern vs. Alcorn State
• Big East: Creighton vs. Villanova
• MAC: Akron vs. Kent State
• Big Sky: Northern Colorado vs. Montana State
• ACC: Virginia Tech vs. Duke
• C-USA: Louisiana Tech vs. UAB
• Pac-12: UCLA vs. Arizona
• Southland: Texas A&M-CC vs. Southeastern Lousiana
• WAC: Abilene Christian vs. New Mexico State
• Big West: Cal State Fullerton vs. Long Beach State

Saturday’s bubble games to watch:

• Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
• Saint Louis vs. Davidson
• Memphis vs. SMU
• Virginia Tech vs. Duke

On the Bubble:

Last Four Byes:

Miami
Michigan
Indiana
SMU

Last Four In:

Wyoming
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Oklahoma

First Four Out:

Xavier
Virginia Tech
Rutgers
VCU

Next Four Out:

Wake Forest
Dayton
BYU
Saint Louis

*Indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
Bold indicates team has won its conference’s automatic bid

West Region

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Southeastern Louisiana*/Alcorn State*
No. 8 Michigan State vs. No. 9 North Carolina
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Notre Dame/Wyoming
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State
No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Indiana
No. 3 Duke* vs. No. 14 Montana State*
No. 7 USC vs. No. 10 Davidson*
No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 15 Saint Peter’s*

South Region

No. 1 Baylor vs. No. 16 Bryant/Norfolk State*
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Iowa State
No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 Chattanooga
No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Vermont*
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 SMU
No. 3 Illinois* vs. No. 14 Longwood
No. 7 Boise State* vs. No. 10 San Francisco
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Jacksonville State 

Midwest Region

No. 1 Arizona* vs. No. 16 Wright State
No. 8 Murray State vs. No. 9 Creighton
No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 Texas A&M/Oklahoma
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 Kent State*
No. 6 Houston* vs. No. 11 Miami
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Princeton*
No. 7 TCU vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago
No. 2 Kentucky* vs. No. 15 Colgate*

East Region

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Long Beach State*
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Memphis
No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 UAB*
No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 New Mexico State*
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Michigan
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Georgia State
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Marquette
No. 2 Auburn vs. No. 15 Delaware

SI’s updated bracket (as of 4 p.m., March 12):

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