Preview: Arizona seeks first win at USC since 2009
Maybe all it will take is a little manufactured disrespect to return Arizona to its winning ways. The Wildcats enter Saturday’s tilt against USC in Los Angeles as double-digit underdogs. The school has not defeated the Trojans on the road since the Nick Foles era, and trails in the all-time series 34-8. Perhaps that’s enough for Arizona to finally say ‘enough’ and figure out a way to snap a six-game losing streak to the Cardinal and Gold.
I could type-vomit the litany of mistakes the Wildcats committed in a 51-27 home loss to Washington last weekend for the next paragraph or two, but why relive it on a beautiful, sun-drenched Friday afternoon. Instead, let’s stay focused on USC and a wild Pac-12 season that promises victory to no one. If you disagree, consider how Stanford could only muster 199 yards of total offense in a 34-16 home loss to the previously one-win UCLA Bruins on Thursday.
Arizona (4-2, 2-1 Pac-12) has had an up and down first half the season. A four game winning streak is bookended by two humbling losses. Granted, Washington is as good as it gets, but they should not have been able to disrupt Arizona’s offense, destroy its special teams, and wear down its defense the way they did in Tucson.
USC (3-3, 2-1 Pac-12) has experienced similar successes and failures, but also has the pedigree of a winning tradition to fall back on in difficult times.
Despite the rollercoaster ride, the teams will meet with matching conference records and the ability to remain atop the divisional standings with a win. So, how can that happen for Arizona?
Special Teams
Somehow, someway, Arizona needs to figure out this whole Special Teams thing. For those familiar with Los Angeles Media, Fred Roggin can put together a 30-minute sports follies segment for his New Year’s Eve special just on Arizona special teams play alone. While the placement kicking game has been solid, Arizona’s punting woes and punt and kick return games have been awful. Bad decision after bad decision in the return game has hurt the Wildcats in field position more times than not. Poor blocking, inconsistent lane discipline by the coverage and return units, and a propensity to make nearly every punt reception a close your eyes and pray nothing bad happens moment has served to make life more difficult for the Wildcats.
Whatever has been going wrong simply cannot happen at USC. The Trojans, like Washington, will capitalize on Wildcat mistakes. Further, like the Huskies, they are not going to panic if the game is close late in the fourth quarter. USC can be as methodical as Washington. They can be as patient. They will play the field position game and sit and wait for the most opportune moment to strike. On special teams, the Wildcats cannot afford to give the Trojans any additional advantages. Be sound. Be smart. Value what it means to start possessions at the 20- or 25-yard line, shrink the football field as much as possible, and stop serving as the team’s weakest link.
Defense
As someone who simply cannot tolerate bad defense of any kind, I’m willing to forgive and forget the 51 points allowed to Washington. If I’m being honest, Arizona’s defense was actually doing an incredible job overcoming the mistakes of the Wildcats offense and special teams play last weekend. They held up for what basically amounted to 45 minutes. Granted, Arizona did get outscored 14-0 in the third quarter, but that was only because Arizona’s offense was horrendous in the third quarter. The Wildcat defense burned up nearly all of its fuel limiting the Huskies to only 13 points at halftime.
The point is this. Arizona’s defense, when complemented by the offense and special teams helping to establish reasonable field position, has been good. The Wildcats have been impressive in stopping the inside run, has been borderline excellent in short down and distance situations, and has been able to hassle quarterbacks in the pocket despite a low number of total sacks. This type of defensive play is good enough to win games in the Pac-12 this year, even when playing away from home. The Trojans are recycling through quarterbacks, the ground game is not the traditional “Student Body Right/Left”, and the passing game has been hit and miss all season.
If Arizona’s defense plays with a chip on its shoulder as a result of the blowout loss to Washington and is not plagued by defending short fields due to turnovers, they have a fighting chance to hold the Trojans to a point total that can be bested by Khalil Tate and the Arizona offense.
Offense
At home, USC’s defense is going to be tough. It’s a salty group equally frustrated by some bad breaks and some tough losses. Historically, USC’s defense has owned Arizona’s offense, but there have been some games where the Trojans simply get lost, assignments start to breakdown, and they reel, particularly against play-making quarterbacks who can scramble and force their secondary to defend receivers outside the standard 3-5 second window.
Arizona’s Tate is that type of quarterback. The Wildcats will need to be more successful in accounting for the backside of the offense. Against Washington, too many Huskies were getting straight-line paths to Tate, or the running backs on read option carries. The offense, as a whole, did a poor job in not only picking up the blitzes, but even identifying them before the snap. This can’t happen again against USC because the Trojans will create the exact same havoc Washington did if it does.
A key for Arizona will be success on first down. The Wildcats must get ahead of the chains on first down to remain unpredictable. They also have to figure out a way to gain rushing yards against the Trojans. Depending on field position, this may require a few possessions where the stubbornly run the football before punting the ball back to USC. Whatever it takes, it’s difficult to imagine Arizona winning with a pass-happy offense on Saturday. I say this because the best way to play tempo offense is to string together a bunch of short-distance gains where the offense can quickly line up and snap the football again. If Arizona can get into a tempo offense, it can score on USC.