How BYU Stacks Up in 2020 College Football Power Index

Casey Lundquist

Every college football season, ESPN updates a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories. As we wait for BYU's next game against Troy, let's see how BYU stacks up in the updated power index after BYU's dominant victory against Navy.

Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN's CFB Power Index page.


Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.

BYU: 6.8 meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by one touchdown on a neutral field. 6.8 puts BYU in the top-25 of college football - ESPN FPI ranks BYU at #21.

Projected Win/Loss Record

Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.

BYU: 6.9-1.1. BYU is expected to go 7-1 according to ESPN FPI's latest projections. Those numbers are subject to change throughout the season.

Win Out %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games. 

BYU: 24.6%. BYU has a 25% chance to go undefeated against their current schedule. According to the power index, that's the third-highest number among participating FBS teams. The only two schools ahead of BYU? Clemson (go figure) and Air Force who only has two games on the schedule.

6 Wins %

Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.

BYU: 94%. BYU has a 94% chance to go 6-2 or better against their current schedule. 

Playoff %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.

BYU: 5.7%. This number is surprisingly high - BYU ranks #12 in the country in this category. Only Clemson, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, Auburn, UCF, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma State are more likely to make the playoff according to ESPN FPI. These numbers would dramatically change if the Big Ten and/or PAC-12 is able to put a schedule together and compete for the national championship.

Make National Championship %

Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 0.7%. In the words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

Win National Championship %

Definition: Chances of winning the CFB Playoff championship game.

BYU: 0.1%. I should have saved the Lloyd Christmas quote for this section. "So you're telling me there's a chance?"

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Comments (2)
No. 1-2

Well LLoyd Christmas, there's not a chance. Remember 1984? that why "they" created the BCS and Playoffs so the "unclean gentiles" would never crash the Natty party again.

This is especially ture now the Big 10 is back andPAC 12 will surely soon follow. None of the Power 5 power brokers are going to let BYU or any other group of 5 into the playoffs even if they're undedeated...ever! They have a consolation New Years gift for those undefeated GO5 teams. I also won't expect a 2017 UCF NCAA Natty consolation gift with our schedule of misfit toys this year even if we won a gifted a NY6 bowl game.

To even be considered for the consolation Natty, BYU would have to undefeated with wins over several Power 5 teams... oh yeah those games were wiped out with Covid and won't be coming back this year.