Duke's Bowl Chances Slim But Still Possible
Things have taken a turn for the Blue Devils bowl hopes.
Just a few weeks ago, Duke was a consensus bowl team, according to the national prognosticators, projected to go to a solid middle-tier bowl, like the Belk, Music City or Russell Athletic.
After a blowout loss to Virginia and a last-second loss to North Carolina, Duke was still slotted for a bowl by most observers, but for a less prestigious game, like the Birmingham or Quick Lane.
A blowout loss to Notre Dame seems to have sealed the Blue Devils' fate.
Currently, just two of the 13 national outlets have Duke projected for a bowl game. Sports Illustrated's projections (released before the loss to the Irish) have Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl, while USA Today projections (also released before the game) have the Blue Devils in the Military Bowl.
Still, Duke has a shot, by a couple of different avenues.
The easiest path is for Duke to win games. At 4-5, the Blue Devils need to win two of their last three to reach six wins and qualify for a bowl.
The Blue Devils will be favored over Syracuse, who comes to Wallace Wade Stadium this weekend. According to the numbers, however, the Blue Devils will need to pull an upset in the final two games.
Duke is No. 57 in ESPN's FBI rankings. Wake Forest is No. 50, and the game is in Winston-Salem. Duke's last home game will be against No. 29 Miami.
If the Blue Devils don't get that sixth win, all hope isn't lost.
There are 39 bowl games prior to the CFP championship game. That means there are 78 slots for teams.
If there aren't enough teams with six wins, the bowls will select five win teams, based on their APR (a measure of graduation rate over the last few years.
Duke's APR is 992, which is tied for third best in the country.
Air Force is in first place, but it's already bowl eligible. Northwestern is next, but the Wildcats can't reach five wins. And the team Duke is tied with, Clemson, is already bowl eligible as well. That means that if Duke has five wins, and there aren't enough six-win teams, the Blue Devils are the first choice.
So the big question becomes: Will there be enough teams?
Currently, only 53 teams are eligible. So the bowls are 25 teams short. Of course, 18 teams are one win away from eligibility, with (for most of them) three to play.
There's also another another bowl-eligibility rule: If teams have played more than one FCS team, or if they play 13 games in the regular season (as Hawaii does), then they need seven wins, instead of six. There are currently three teams in that category that already have six wins--Hawaii, Virginia Tech and Liberty. Before the bowl go to the APR list, they take the six-win but need-seven teams.
So, actually, for Duke, there are 22 spots and 15 teams one win away.
And finally, Georgia Southern and Arkansas State, who both have five wins, play each other in a week, guaranteeing one of them reaches the six-win plateau. So it's actually 21 spots for Duke and 14 teams one win away.
The last two years, however, the bowls had enough six-win teams and didn't need to go to the APR list, and there's one fewer game than last year--so two fewer slots.
So it appears the best bet for the Blue Devils is to win two games and not worry about scoreboard watching around the country.
