Florida vs. Auburn: Three key matchups that could decide the game

The is the biggest game of Florida's season to date. Which three personnel matchups will decide the outcome?

After five games against a mix struggling Power 5 opponents and FCS foes, the competition is finally heating up for the Gators.

The seventh-ranked Auburn Tigers are at Florida's doorstep, giving Ben Hill Griffin Stadium it's first Top 10 matchup since 2012. Rallying behind an impressive true freshman quarterback in Bo Nix and a roster that is stacked from top to bottom, the Tigers will present Florida with some of the toughest challenges they'll face all year.

But what are those challenges, and how can the Gators combat them? As always, these matchups go in-depth with the help of stats from Pro Football Focus for context.

Florida's offensive line vs. Auburn's defensive line

If you've been skeptical of Florida's offensive line against the likes of Towson and Tennessee, then you're probably feeling pretty pessimistic about this matchup.

The Gators have been pretty miserable in their run blocking, as seen by the lack of production coming from the run game. Lamical Perine and Dameon Pierce have been Florida's lead backs, with Perine taking 55 handoffs and Pierce complementing him with 27.

Pierce has been drastically more effective than Perine and appears better suited to overcome run blocking issues. He is currently averaging 5.9 yards per carry - four of which are coming after contact. Compare that to Perine's 3.6 YPC, tacking on 2.53 after contact. Despite receiving less than half the amount of carries as Perine, Pierce has forced seven missed tackles compared to Perine's six.

Regardless of who the more effective back has been, though, Auburn's defensive trench is going to make running the ball just about impossible considering Florida's run blocking struggles. It's just not plausible to predict this unit suddenly flipping the switch against such a disruptive defensive line. 

What Florida can do to lessen the blow of Auburn's disruption is pass protect, something the line has been solid at throughout the year. PFF has the five starters and Richard Gouraige - the OL's sixth-man who has rotated at tackle and guard - down for allowing only 33 pressures in five games, and eight sacks.

Auburn has five defensive linemen with double-digit pressures. Edge rusher Marlon Davidson has accumulated 19, and fellow edge rushers Big Kat Bryant and Nick Coe have tallied 15 and 13, respectively. Interior rushers Tyrone Truesdell and Derrick Brown have combined for 21 pressures as well.

Florida needs to be at its best in pass protection against the Tigers in order to stand a chance offensively. The expectation shouldn't be that quarterback Kyle Trask gets all day to throw the ball, but they must block just long enough to establish a quick-hitting passing attack to control the game clock, create yards after the catch, and wear the Tigers down. 

If Florida can accomplish that, opportunities to run or take shots down the field will open up over time.

WR Josh Hammond and TE Kyle Pitts vs. Auburn's middle-of-the-field coverage unit

The two most important members of Florida's passing attack, not named Kyle Trask, are wide receiver Josh Hammond and tight end Kyle Pitts.

As previously mentioned, a quick passing game will be necessary against Auburn's defense. Luckily, Trask thrives in that area, and Hammond is tailor-made for that style of passing attack.

Hammond is going to be relied upon early, on short routes such as crossers, screens, flats, and so on. Considering he hasn't dropped a pass since 2017, Hammond is known as the most dependable receiver in Florida's offense. Given that Florida will need to nail down a quick-passing offense to beat Auburn's pressure, and that Trask has completed 28/30 passes ranging from behind the line of scrimmage through 10 yards out for a total 217 yards, the senior slot receiver should have a productive day.

What helps is that Auburn's middle of the field coverage has been susceptible to players like Hammond having good days. Their starting linebackers K.J. Britt and Owen Pappoe, and nickel cornerback Christian Tutt, have allowed 21 receptions on 35 combined targets to go for 204 yards and two scores. 117 of those yards have come after the catch, and Hammond has generated 111 yards after the catch this year.

Should Florida get things rolling with a quick passing game to guys like Hammond, then deeper passing action can open up and Pitts can take the game into his own hands. He isn't Florida's biggest deep threat this year, only averaging 11.1 yards per catch, but he has been money in the intermediate middle of the field on slants, posts, and dig routes. 

Being almost uncoverable by standing at 6-6, 239 lbs., and the athleticism of a typical slot receiver, Pitts should be Florida's primary big-play target as the passing offense expands. And Auburn's safety tandem of Jeremiah Dinson and Daniel Thomas are combining to allow 72.7% of targets to be completed, which only makes things easier for Pitts.

Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga vs. QB Bo Nix

Florida will have their hands full on defense as well, as Auburn has an incredibly productive run game led by running back JaTarvious Whitlow and big-play receivers in Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams.

None of those players will matter if Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga can prove that they are the nation's best pass-rushing tandem, as they've been hyped up to be.

Zuniga is returning to the field against Auburn after missing the past two games with an ankle sprain, and looks to get back to posting elite production opposite of Greenard on the edge. Despite not playing in the past two weeks, Zuniga ranks third on the Gators in QB pressures with 11, behind Greenard at 22 and Jeremiah Moon at 15.

Greenard and Zuniga have combined for seven sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss this year, and have a chance to add to that total against quarterback Bo Nix. The true freshman has shown serious talent so far at Auburn, throwing a deep game-winning touchdown against Oregon in his first career game, and posting 391 total yards an three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) last week against Mississippi State.

However, Nix has really struggled under pressure. In fact, he has allowed a team-leading eight pressures of his own - left tackle Prince Tega Wanogho leads Auburn's line with six allowed - and has taken five sacks when facing pressure. 

Nix's completion percentage under pressure stands at a miserable 33.3%, compared to his 64.6% rate when he's got a clean pocket to operate in. While he isn't turning the ball over under pressure, he hasn't proven that he can beat pressure through the air. 

Should Greenard and Zuniga enjoy a productive game, with the help of Moon and other pass rushers, the Tigers should be without the spark that their true freshman QB has provided this season.