KenPom Doesn't Give FSU Basketball Great Shot to Win ACC Tournament

David Visser

As you very well know by now, Florida State men's basketball locked up its first ACC regular season title on Saturday, finishing alone atop the conference with a 16-4 ACC record. So thanks to earning the 1-seed and a double-bye into the quarterfinals, the 'Noles won't play until Thursday in a tourney that begins on Tuesday. 

You'd think that the conference champs and top seed would be the favorites to win the tourney, especially given how the 1-seed has performed throughout ACC history. But advanced metrics aren't concerned with history, and that's not how statistician Ken Pomeroy's numbers have this one playing out. 

He has 4-seed Duke more than twice as likely to take home the ACC title as FSU. And the Seminoles don't even come in second, per his typically reliable metrics. He has the Blue Devils as a clear favorite to cut down the nets in Greensboro, at 40.6%, Louisville second at 23.7%, and then Florida State, at 17.9%.

These percentages are obviously tied to KenPom.com's overall efficiency rating, in which Duke currently comes in, nationally, at No. 5, the Cardinals at No. 9, and the 'Noles at No. 15.

You can check out KP's more detailed odds on the ACC crown below, but what do you think of these numbers? I've no real problem with the Blue Devils being favored, as they're always stacked with blue-chip recruits. And Pomeroy isn't biased-- these are the numbers as produced by his metrics, and again, we site him because they're usually pretty accurate. But is this gap a bridge too far? Let us know in the comments section below. 

Comments (6)
No. 1-3
Kent.Olsen
Kent.Olsen

I'm usually a believer in the math, but there's occasionally something that falls outside the numbers. In this case, it's Florida State's basketball team. The models don't yet know how to adjust for "want to", a defensive system that's unusual in the college game, or a roster as deep as FSU's.

Personally, I think that FSU's chances to win this thing are as good as anyone's, and FSU looks to be better positioned to play 24 hours after playing the Clemson/Miami winner than Duke is 24 hours after presumably playing NC State.

Mitch Schmidt
Mitch Schmidt

Not surprised that this is the order of the teams, but I am surprised that Duke is so high. I'd put the odds more at 33%/25%/20%/15%/(7% for the field)

1 Reply

David Visser
David Visser

Editor

Agreed, Mitch. I wouldn't have the gap between Duke and the other top-three so vast.

ddfranson
ddfranson

This may have already been said, but given that FSU beat Louisville twice in the regular season, once on their home court and Louisville has lost 2 of their last 3, it seems the model is flawed.


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