Florida State's returning production in 2023 ranks No. 1 in the country according to ESPN
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Expectations for Florida State in 2023 have been growing locally and nationally following the program's first ten-win campaign in six years. With key players such as quarterback Jordan Travis, running back Trey Benson, defensive end Jared Verse, and defensive tackle Fabien Lovett returning for another season under third-year head coach Mike Norvell, there's a lot of optimism that the Seminoles can compete for an ACC Title and maybe more.
READ MORE: Urban Meyer names Florida State as one of the top jobs in all of College Football
It's not just fans in Tallahassee looking through garnet and gold colored glasses. Plenty of others see the potential for a special season for Florida State as well.
Earlier this month, ESPN's Bill Connelly released his yearly returning production chart for the upcoming season. The Seminoles came in at No. 1 on the list out of 133 teams in the FBS with 87% of their production returning in 2023, per Connelly's metric. He has Florida State listed firmly in his column of the teams that he expects most likely to improve this season.
"Optimism is rampant in Tallahassee, and it's not hard to see why," Connelly wrote. "After a midseason funk left the Noles 4-3, they ignited down the stretch, and now they return virtually everyone responsible for that ignition, from quarterback Jordan Travis to running back Trey Benson, receiver Johnny Wilson, 3½ offensive line starters and almost every primary defender (including star edge rusher Jared Verse)."
"It also appears Norvell aced the transfer portal for the second year in a row, bringing in reinforcements on both lines (most notably Western Michigan defensive tackle Braden Fiske and UTEP offensive tackle Jeremiah Byers) and adding Virginia cornerback Fentrell Cypress II, among others."
Breaking down the returning production even further, Florida State's offense ranks No. 12 with 80% of its production returning. The Seminoles have Travis back in the fold for another season alongside four of the top five leading rushers, seven of the top 10 leading receivers, and five offensive linemen that played starting roles on the 2022 squad.
The percentage also includes the addition of transfers such as tight end Jaheim Bell, tight end Kyle Morlock, offensive lineman Casey Roddick, offensive lineman Keiondre Jones, and offensive lineman Jeremiah Byers.
Connelly is even higher on the Seminoles on the other side of the ball. Florida State's defense is considered No. 2 in the country with 94% production returning. The team did lose star safety Jammie Robinson to the draft as well as defensive tackle Robert Cooper and defensive end Leonard Warner III to graduation. However, multiple players that could've pursued professional futures chose to run it back for another year at FSU, including Verse, Lovett, linebacker Tatum Bethune, linebacker Kalen DeLoach, cornerback Renardo Green, and safety Akeem Dent, among others.
The percentage also includes the additions of transfers such as defensive lineman Braden Fiske, defensive tackle Darrell Jackson, defensive end Gilber Edmond, and cornerback Fentrell 'Deuce' Cypress II.
Plenty of readers are probably wondering about how Connelly developed his rankings.
On offense, the percent of returning OL snaps accounts for 47% of the overall number, percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards at 24%, percent of returning QB passing yards at 23%, and percent of returning RB rushing yards at 6%.
When hashed out by position, that means you're looking at around 29% for the quarterback, 9% for each offensive lineman, and 6% for the running back and each of four wide receivers and/or tight ends.
On defense, the percent of returning tackles accounts for 70% of the overall number, percent of returning passes defenses at 14%, percent of returning tackles for loss at 12%, and percent of returning sacks at 4%.
When hashed out by position, that means you're looking at 46% for the defensive backfield, 40% for the group of linebackers, and just 14% for returning talent along the defensive line.
Only two teams on Florida State's schedule rank among the top-25 of returning production according to the metric. Boston College slots in at No. 8 at 78%. Syracuse came in at No. 24 with 73% of its production returning.
Two of the top opponents that Florida State will face - LSU and Clemson - rank among the upper half of teams in the chart. LSU comes in at No. 32 while Clemson is No. 36 in returning production. That's interesting because the Seminoles will play both versions of the Tigers in the first third of the season.
To conclude with a quick look at FSU's primary rivals, Miami is at No. 35 at 70% but will be replacing both of its coordinators while Florida ranks No. 107 at 54%. The Hurricanes rank fifth in the ACC in returning production but the Gators are second to last in the SEC behind Alabama.
READ MORE: Florida State's full 2023 football schedule released
Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State football throughout the 2023 offseason
