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Three In The Key: What to Look For From Illini vs. Miami

Illini Maven/Sports Illustrated gets you set for this ACC/Big Ten Challenge game as Illinois hosts a 4-3 Miami squad with another 'Three in the Key' piece.

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- Illinois begins its stretch of what third-year head coach Brad Underwood called “the three M’s” of Miami, Maryland and Michigan, which will include two Associated Press Top 25 teams and a team in Miami coming off two losses in the Charleston Classic.

Miami, which was projected to finish ninth in the Atlantic Coast Conference preseason poll, has already suffered blowout losses to Louisville, Florida and Connecticut. Miami has seven games against preseason Associated Press Top 25 teams and seven games against teams that received votes in the preseason AP Poll. At 16.2 points per game, 5-foot-7 Chris Lykes was the second-leading scorer in 2018-19 of high-major players under 6’0, trailing only 5-foot-11 Markus Howard of Marquette (25.0), and No. 12 among all Division I players under 6-feet. Of the six high-major starters under 6’0 last season, Lykes and Howard are the lone returnees. Miami returns three players this year who missed all or most of the 2018-19 campaign. Kameron McGusty sat out last season in accordance with NCAA transfer rules, while Rodney Miller, Jr., redshirted and also did not compete. Deng Gak is back in action after missing the last 24 games of the season due to a left knee injury. Keith Stone, who missed the final 17 games of the season last year at Florida with a right knee injury, is expected to play tonight at the State Farm Center.

Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we’ll take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after tip.

Game 8: Miami (Fla.) at Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Monday, Dec. 2, 2019: 6 p.m. CST, State Farm Center in Champaign, Ill.

Capacity: 16,618

Records: Miami 4-3, 0-1 in Atlantic Coast Conference; 14-18, 5-13 in ACC in 2018-19. Illinois 6-1; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 8.5

Series notes: Miami leads series 2-1. Illinois won the first meeting, an 86-76 win at Miami in 1969. Miami has met and defeated Illinois twice during Jim Larrañaga’s tenure. First, on March 24, 2013, the Hurricanes posted a 63-59 win in Austin, Texas, to reach the NCAA Sweet 16 for the second time. Then, exactly five years ago, on Dec. 2, 2014, Miami logged a 70-61 home victory in a matchup of top-25 teams in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

TV: ESPN2; Jason Benetti (PBP), Dan Dakich (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) and Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post)» The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 371 and at FightingIllini.com.

1) How does Illinois deal with Miami’s consistent size in the frontcourt?

Don’t kid yourself, nobody has the size and strength to completely cover up Illinois freshman center Kofi Cockburn. The 7-foot, 280-pounder swept both Big Ten Conference weekly honors, the conference office last week by taking home league Player of the Week and Freshman of the Week awards.

Cockburn averaged 17.7 points and 14.7 rebounds and had a double-double in all three Illini victories during the week over Hawaii, The Citadel and Hampton. None of those three opponents had close to the size Miami will bring to the State Farm Center tonight. Miami will roll out a 7-foot, 240-pound center (Rodney Miller Jr.) who is averaging 7.4 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per game and is in his third year of college basketball. At the 4 spot, Australian Sam Waardenburg is averaging just 4.0 ppg and 5.3 rpg but will likely take Giorgi Bezhanishvili away from the basket with his career 3-point mark of 37.8 percent. Florida graduate transfer Keith Stone, who stands 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds, is expected to make his debut tonight. You can expect Miami associate head coach Chris Captuo, who in his ninth year with the Hurricanes as its defensive coordinator, will try a myriad of ways to deny Cockburn the ball and get him in foul trouble as the Illini have very little frontcourt depth that they can rely on in a big game.

2) Can Illinois effectively cover the 3-point line and then, offensively hit shots behind that line?

Over its last 140 minutes of action, which includes the second half against Quinnipiac and all three full games at the Charleston Classic, Miami is shooting 47 percent (31-of-66) on 3-point field goals. Through seven games into the 2019-20 season, Illinois opponents are only shooting 32.9 percent from beyond the 3-point arc and The Citadel is the only Division I opponent to hit a double-digit number of 3-point shots. Miami leading scorer DJ Vasiljevic is No. 5 in the ACC in 3-point percentage (43.9) and tied for No. 6 in field goal percentage (50.0), through the end of November. Illinois’ perimeter trio of Trent Frazier, Ayo Dosunmu and Andres Feliz has been excellent in fighting over the top of screens but are a combined 23-of-66 (34.8 percent) themselves on the offensive end. The guard play by the Illini will be key because Miami will have the length and rim protection to force Illinois to make perimeter shots before Jim Larrañaga switches defensive philosophies.

3) Can Illinois find a go-to perimeter scorer?

Illinois’ top three scoring leaders are within seven points of each other through seven games. Dosunmu leads the Illini offense, averaging 16.3 points per game. Cockburn and Feliz are both at 15.3 points per game. The Illini are the only team from the six major conferences with three players averaging at least 15 points per contest (through Nov. 30). There are 10 teams with two players scoring at that clip. However, what happens when Illinois’ offense gets stagnant (something Underwood doesn’t want to have happened but knows good defenses will find ways to accomplish in certain possessions) and they need a bucket? Who do they give the basketball to and let him work? The knee-jerk answer is Dosunmu and this is his first game with a national television audience this season but he was just 6 of 15 in the 90-69 loss at Arizona last month. He’ll need to lift his game in this three-game stretch.

Prediction:

This is a key game for the Illini as they don’t want to leave for its Big Ten Conference opener at No. 3 Maryland on a down note and be 0-2 against Power 5 Conference opponents in the first month of play. Kofi Cockburn will need to prove he can handle playing against similar players of his stature but I think the key will be Bezhanishvili. He spent a lot of time at the end of Monday’s practice shooting long perimeter jump shots and he’ll need to make those early to space out Illinois’ offense and force one-on-one touches for Cockburn in the post. If Illinois can speed up Miami’s pace and get them into a transition game similar to the way Florida did to them in Charleston, the Illini might get its first ACC/Big Ten Challenge win since 2016 and only its second one since 2012.

Illinois 75, Miami (Fla.) 65