No. 9 Kansas vs. No. 2 Iowa State: What the Numbers Predict

The Jayhawks enter Wednesday night’s matchup as the underdogs.
Jan 11, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA;  Kansas Jayhawks guard AJ Storr (2) knocks the ball away from Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) in the second half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
Jan 11, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Kansas Jayhawks guard AJ Storr (2) knocks the ball away from Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) in the second half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images / Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

The Big 12 showdown on Wednesday night has all the makings of a classic. No. 9 Kansas heads into hostile territory to face No. 2 Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum, where the Cyclones have been unstoppable this season.

Riding an 11-game win streak, Iowa State enters the matchup as the favorite — and the numbers agree.

The Predictions Are In

Bill Sel
Kansas Jayhawks head coach Bill Self looks back after a play in the second half of the game against Arizona State Sun Devils inside Allen Fieldhouse Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. / Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
  • KenPom: Iowa State is given a 71% chance to win, thanks to their suffocating defense and methodical offense that frustrates opponents.
  • ESPN’s BPI: The Cyclones also get the nod here, with a 63.6% chance of victory. Hilton Coliseum’s legendary home-court advantage only adds to their edge.
  • FanDuel Odds: Iowa State is listed as a 2.5-point favorite, suggesting a tight contest but one where the Cyclones are expected to come out on top.

What Kansas Needs to Do

Jayhawks
Kansas Jayhawks guard Shakeel Moore (0) dunks in the second half of the NCAA basketball game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati on Saturday, January 11, 2025. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Cyclones might not play fast, but they play smart, leaning on players like Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson to control the pace and dominate the paint. If Kansas wants to flip the script, here’s how they can do it:

  • Control the Glass: Hunter Dickinson has been a double-double machine, but he’ll need help from Flory Bidunga and the rest of the frontcourt to win the battle inside against Iowa State’s big men.
  • Step Up the Scoring: Kansas has been in a bit of a shooting funk, and that won’t fly against Iowa State’s efficient defense. Zeke Mayo and Rylan Griffen need to get hot early to set the tone.
  • Disrupt the Cyclones’ Flow: Iowa State thrives in half-court sets, so pressuring ball handlers like Lipsey and forcing turnovers will be critical.

Final Thoughts ...

The odds may lean toward Iowa State, but Kansas has the talent and grit to pull off the upset. This one has all the ingredients for a Big 12 classic, and you won’t want to miss it.

Tipoff is at 6 p.m. CT on Wednesday, January 15, with live coverage on ESPN2. Buckle up.


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Mathey Gibson
MATHEY GIBSON

Mathey Gibson is the Managing Editor for the Kansas Jayhawks On SI. A graduate of the University of Alabama, he has extensive experience covering major college sports, including reporting on Crimson Tide athletics since 2019 for outlets like Alabama Crimson Tide On SI, The Crimson White, and Tide Illustrated. Now focused on Kansas, Gibson has covered significant events such as the NCAA Tournament, College World Series, and the College Football Playoff, bringing a deep understanding of collegiate athletics to one of the nation’s premier programs.