Tale of the Tape & Prediction: Louisville vs. Pitt
Louisville (1-1, 0-1 ACC) is set to embark on their first road trip of the season, traveling to face Pitt (1-0, 0-0 ACC) at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pa. on Saturday, Sept. 26 at 12:00 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers:
- Rankings:
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press | 21st | 24th |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | RV | RV |
SOS | 42nd | 16th |
SP+ | 24th | 35th |
FPI | 35th | 27th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 29th (399.0) | 12th (501.5) |
Passing Yards | 21st (262.0) | 8th (325.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 28th (11.91) | 14th (14.44) |
Rushing Yards | 38th (137.0) | 27th (176.5) |
First Downs Gained | 16th (43) | 6th (51) |
3rd Down Con. % | 20th (48.0%) | 26th (43.3%) |
4th Down Con. % | 35th (33.3%) | 23rd (57.1%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 34th (80.0%) | 22nd (90.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 25th (2) | 46th (5) |
Interceptions Thrown | 14th (1) | 36th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 20th (1) | 49th (3) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 32nd (7.00) | 44th (10.00) |
Sacks Allowed | 26th (2.00) | 26th (2.00) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 9th (34:37) | 7th (35:17) |
Key: National Rank out of 52 Active FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 3rd (154.0) | 23rd (366.5) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 4th (128.0) | 28th (227.0) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 1st (26.0) | 24th (139.5) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 6th (20.0%) | 27th (40.0%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 35th (33.3%) | 12th (33.3%) |
First Downs Allowed | 9th (17) | 27th (31) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 9th (50.0%) | 30th (85.7%) |
Turnovers Gained | 2nd (5) | 33rd (1) |
Interceptions Caught | 1st (3) | N/A |
Fumbles Recovered | 8th (2) | 17th (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 4th (5.00) | 21st (2.00) |
TFL Per Game | 5th (11.00) | 14th (8.00) |
Defensive Touchdowns | N/A | N/A |
Key: National Rank out of 52 Active FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 33rd (36.00) | 47th (28.25) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 49th (9.00) | 41st (14.00) |
Avg. Punt Return | 10th (11.00) | 19th (7.00) |
Blocked Kicks | 3rd (1) | N/A |
Blocked Kicks Allowed | 1st (0 | 46th (1) |
Blocked Punts | 1st (1) | N/A |
Blocked Punts Allowed | 1st (0) | 50th (1) |
Field Goal Percentage | 0-3 | 2-2 |
PAT Percentage | 10-10 | 9-9 |
Key: National Rank out of 52 Active FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 49.5% chance to win against Pitt. Louisville's FPI of 7.7 is the sixth-highest in the Atlantic Coast Conference, while Pitt's FPI of 6.0 ranks at No. 9 in the conference.
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have just a 32.95% chance to take down the Panthers. According to SP+ ratings, Pitt has the third-highest rating of any opponent on Louisville's schedule behind Notre Dame and Miami. Louisville has a new SP+ rating of 5.4.
- Personal Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Louisville 28 - Pitt has maybe the best defense in the ACC. While Louisville has the offense to deal with it, their defense could potentially drag them behind even against a pedestrian Panthers offense.
(Photo of Javian Hawkins: Atlantic Coast Conference)
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