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Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (5-5, 3-4 ACC) is set to face Duke (3-7, 0-6 ACC) on Thursday, Nov. 18 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Wallace-Wade Stadium in Durham, N.C. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

- Rankings:

DukeLouisville

Associated Press Top 25

NR

NR

USA TODAY Coaches Poll

NR

NR

SOS

72nd

14th

SP+

99th

37th

FPI

107th

38th

- Offensive Statistics:

DukeLouisville

Total Offense

45th (433.4)

39th (436.3)

Scoring Offense

97th (24.2)

56th (30.0)

Passing Yards

60th (242.3)

65th (235.5)

Yards Per Completion

91st (11.48)

20th (13.77)

Rushing Yards

39th (191.1)

26th (200.8)

First Downs Gained

52nd (218)

83rd (204)

3rd Down Con. %

44th (42.7%)

83rd (37.6)

4th Down Con. %

104th (40.9%)

69th (50.0%)

Red Zone Con. %

117th (73.0%)

35th (88.6%)

Turnovers Lost

104th (18)

49th (12)

Interceptions Thrown

64th (8)

22nd (5)

Fumbles Lost

126th (11)

93rd (7)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

120th (7.20)

38th (4.50)

Sacks Allowed

77th (2.40)

33rd (1.60)

Avg. Time of Possession

76th (29:32)

25th (31:31)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

DukeLouisville

Total Defense

129th (499.9)

67th (385.2)

Scoring Defense

121st (36.8)

62nd (25.0)

Passing Yards Allowed

129th (304.8)

99th (251.7)

Rushing Yards Allowed

108th (195.1)

42nd (133.5)

3rd Down Defensive %

122nd (46.9%)

30th (34.8%)

4th Down Defensive %

83rd (57.1%)

58th (50.0%)

First Downs Allowed

106th (231)

77th (213)

Red Zone Defensive %

111th (90.9%)

100th (88.9%)

Turnovers Gained

61st (14)

82nd (12)

Interceptions Caught

64th (8)

49th (9)

Fumbles Recovered

54th (6)

105th (3)

Sacks Per Game

78th (2.00)

20th (3.00)

TFL Per Game

76th (5.2)

30th (6.3)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

DukeLouisville

Net Punting

60th (39.61)

52nd (40.05)

Avg. Kickoff Return

67th (20.54)

48th (21.87)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

7th (14.53)

70th (21.00)

Avg. Punt Return

62nd (8.47)

18th (12.92)

Avg. Punt Return Def.

89th (9.29)

43rd (5.64)

Field Goal Attempts

10-17

14-20

PAT

30-30

36-37

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Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 86.7 percent chance to win against the Blue Devils. Louisville has an FPI of 6.6 (38th overall), whereas Duke has a rating of -11.7 (107th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-11-16 at 5.29.47 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 81.75 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 9.6 (37th overall), whereas Duke has a rating of -8.3 (99th overall). Following the win vs. Syracuse, Louisville is favored in all both of their remaining games on the schedule (Duke, Kentucky).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.97
  • Post-Week 1: 4.63
  • Post-Week 2: 5.71
  • Post-Week 3: 6.49
  • Post-Week 4: 6.14
  • Post-Week 5: 6.19
  • Post-Week 6: 5.47
  • Post-Week 7: 5.74
  • Post-Week 8: 6.56
  • Post-Week 9: 6.20
  • Post-Week 10: 5.93
  • Post-Week 11: 6.40

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 45, Duke 13.

(Photo of Lamar Atkins, Shaun Wilson: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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