What We Learned About Michigan Hoops After Historically Tough Stretch
It's quite possible the Michigan basketball team just ran the toughest gauntlet in the program's history.
The Wolverines faced seven top 50 teams in the last 17 days according to KenPom's analytics. To put that in perspective, to win the Big Ten Tournament and then advance to the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament back in 2018, Michigan "only" had to beat five top 50 teams in 22 days. And that was at the culmination of the season, with the Wolverines a finished product and led by the greatest head coach in the program's history.
This season's edition had to navigate that minefield during the first two month's of Juwan Howard's coaching career, with only two of those games at the Crisler Center. Welcome back to college basketball, Juwan! Oh, and lest we forget Michigan had to replace its top three scorers as well.
However, Michigan finished a solid 4-3 against those seven likely future NCAA Tournament teams. The Wolverines did so not just with a rookie coach learning his craft in real time, and up against some of the top names in the business like Roy Williams, Mark Few, and Dana Altman. But while reshuffling its lineup on the fly, too. Michigan fans probably would've taken going 4-3 against those teams with this roster with John Beilein still at the helm, let alone someone who's never even been a head coach at any level of basketball before.
I said before the season I thought Michigan would be in excellent shape if it could finish the non-conference schedule 8-3. Given the gimmees coming up later this month, the Wolverines seem destined to finish the non-conference a game better at 9-2. That resume means this team will hear its name called on Selection Sunday three months from now, barring some unforeseen cataclysm after the new year. Which, given the roster turnover and doubts about such an inexperienced head coach, was my main goal for the season to establish Howard's legitimacy with recruits.
So in that respect we can already say mission accomplished. Still, when you soar to No.4 in the AP Poll, as Michigan did earlier this month, it's only natural for fan expectations to rise along with that ranking. Here's what these 17 days of testing have taught us about this Michigan basketball team, as well as what our expectations should probably be as well.
The truth is somewhere in the middle.
It was ridiculous how low Michigan was ranked in the preseason given the return of Zavier Simpson. Point guard is the most important position in college basketball, thus if you're anywhere from very good to elite at that spot you're going to have a good team. Yet I think we've also learned in road games at Louisville and Illinois this probably isn't a top five team right now, either. The road is where your weaknesses get exposed, and the elite teams find ways to nevertheless overcome them. The Wolverines haven't been able to do that twice now, yet still have a pretty impressive resume overall. This week. Michigan will probably be ranked somewhere between 15-20 by pollsters, and that's a justifiable medium for this still-developing team.
Michigan is at its best when Zavier Simpson is the main facilitator, not the main scorer.
In the Wolverines eight wins, Simpson is averaging eight field goal attempts per game. But in Michigan's three losses, that number swells a whopping 50% to 12 shots per game. Some of that is the opposition recognizing Simpson is an All-American caliber distributor. A rising tide that lifts all boats. And then some of it is Simpson's teammates being too passive in their shot selection when the in-game momentum is going the wrong way. Regardless, the more Simpson is required to be the alpha scorer, the worse off the Wolverines seem to be. Rest assured, Big Ten rivals have taken notice of this, too.
Eli Brooks is the harbinger.
At times in recent years there's been a harbinger player for the Wolverines. Like back in 2012-13, when Michigan didn't lose a game Glenn Robinson III scored in double figures. Two seasons ago, the Wolverines didn't lose a game when Duncan Robinson scored at least six points until the national championship. So far this season, it appears Brooks is the omen. Whenever Brooks has hit at least one three, Michigan has won all eight games. However, Michigan has lost all three games Brooks failed to connect from beyond the arc. Offense from that two guard spot is vital for the Wolverines, especially from the perimeter to extend the defense. Brooks, like a lot of shooters, tends to see his overall game elevate if his outside shot is falling, and then diminish if it's not.
Balance is a double-edged sword.
Michigan has had four different leading scorers in its first 11 games of the season. Eight different players have scored in double-figures already. That balance has made the Wolverines very difficult to stop at times (see the Battle 4 Atlantis). That's the good news.
The bad news is the Wolverines are still looking for that go-to scorer. Simpson has tried to be that guy, almost by default, but as we've already noted Michigan's overall efficiency seems to suffer the more Simpson is forced to assert himself as a scorer.
Life on the road in the Big Ten is difficult to navigate as it is, let alone without someone able to take over a game during those junctures when the momentum and crowd are going against you. if the Wolverines are going to contend, let alone win, the Big Ten this season, they must identify/develop who their go-to scorer is.
