Ten Things I Think Will Happen Against Michigan State
Michigan's games have been tough to predict because a lot of them have played out differently than many thought they would.
As 22-point favorites over the Black Knights of Army, Michigan escaped with a three-point win in double overtime. As 3.5-dogs against the Badgers, U-M limped away from Madison after a 21-point loss that was actually much worse. The Wolverines were favored by 27.5 over Rutgers and won by 52 in an offensive explosion compared to weeks prior. There was the 10-point offensive clunker against the Hawkeyes that somehow resulted in a win. Then five weeks ago, Michigan inexplicably gave up 25 straight points to Illinois before ultimately winning the game 42-25. A game went somewhat according to plan when Michigan lost by just seven in Happy Valley a few weekends ago and then the Wolverines drubbed the Irish 45-14 in Ann Arbor as slight underdogs. A 31-point win over Maryland was pretty much expected ahead of the bye week but it didn't exactly play out like some thought in terms of game flow and stats.
That makes these guesses tricky, but here are some specific predictions on how the action will look this Saturday.
Player Predictions
Hassan Haskins will carry the ball at least 12 times
Haskins has started the last three games and has carried the ball at least 12 times in each of the last four games. He seems to have passed Zach Charbonnet atop the depth chart and there doesn't seem to be any reason that would change against Michigan State.
Nico Collins and Donovan Peoples-Jones will both score a receiving touchdown
Collins and Peoples-Jones need to be weapons for quarterback Shea Patterson against the Spartans. Michigan State's pass defense has been less than stellar this season so getting into the end zone should be doable for talented pass catchers like Collins and Peoples-Jones. The two big receivers both scored against Notre Dame earlier this season in a bad rain storm and I think it happens again tomorrow.
Sean McKeon will catch at least two passes
It felt like McKeon could be a security blanket for Patterson heading into the season but a sputtering pass attack and then a knee injury for the senior tight end has him sitting on just seven catches in 2019. He missed a few games after injuring his knee against Wisconsin but started working his way back into the rotation against Maryland a couple weeks ago. He played more than 70 snaps in the first two games of the season but the injury shelved him for a while. The bye came at a good time for him and I think he'll be a bigger part of the offense tomorrow.
Shea Patterson will eclipse his season average of 197 passing yards per game
As previously mentioned, Michigan State's pass defense has really underperformed this year. Obviously Michigan isn't throwing the ball much with a starting quarterback averaging less than 200 yards through the air per contest, but I think Patterson will find some mojo tomorrow. If the running game doesn't get going, which is possible against Sparty's defensive front, the receivers will have to make some plays and rack up some yards.
Jake Moody will connect on a field goal of at least 35 yards
Moody is 6-of-9 on the season with a long of 43 yards. The weather shouldn't be a factor tomorrow so I think he'll get a chance to knock at least one field goal through. Making one from 35 yards is a piece of cake for him distance wise, so it'll just be about getting the opportunity and executing.
Team Predictions
A Michigan true freshman will make an impact play
Only a handful of true freshmen are playing meaningful snaps each week but just about all of them have made a play at some point during the season. Will it be Giles Jackson in the return game again? Maybe Mike Sainristil or Erick All will find the end zone. Could Daxton Hill make a defensive play or get involved in some special teams trickeration again? Perhaps Zach Charbonnet will find the end zone a few times. I'm not sure who it will be, but one of the rookies will have one of the plays of the game.
Michigan will have a 100-yard rusher
This has only happened in three games this year, but I think it will against the Spartans. Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball and he's going to try and try again, especially in a rivalry game against Michigan State. My money is on Hassan Haskins but Zach Charbonnet is certainly able. Who knows, maybe Shea Patterson has one more 80-yard run in his system? The Wolverines have been running the ball for several weeks in a row now and I think it continues.
Michigan will force at least two turnovers
Michigan State has lost eight fumbles and thrown nine interceptions this year for a total of 17 turnovers. The Spartans are breaking in a couple of new offensive linemen and are down some offensive playmakers as well. That means a lot of inexperienced guys are going to play a lot of snaps, which should lead to some sloppy play. I expect Don Brown's defense to make Brian Lewerke's day miserable causing him to turn the ball over a couple of times on his own.
Michigan's offense will convert at least one fourth down attempt
Jim Harbaugh isn't afraid to go for it on fourth down the situation presents itself and I think he'll do that successfully at least one against Michigan State. It's all about sending a message in this game and we know Harbaugh loves to play man ball and impose his team's will on the opponent.
Michigan will cover the 13.5-point spread
This is a pretty big spread for a Michigan/Michigan State game but everything is pointing to the Wolverines possibly running away with it. Sparty is reeling, decimated by injuries and just not playing very good football. Michigan, on the other hand, is trending in the other direction on all fronts and could deliver the knockout blow to Sparty and Mark Dantonio. A 30-point win doesn't seem far fetched in this one and I think U-M easily covers the two-touchdown spread.
What do you think of the predictions? Which will happen and which won't? What predictions do you have? Comment below!!!
