Date: Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021
Time: 11 a.m. CT
Location: Wrigley Field; Chicago, Ill.
There are two games left in Northwestern's season and for bettors, it has been a rough one as they have not done a great job at covering the spread. That was the case last week against Wisconsin as not only were they blown out 35-7, but they were unable to at least cover the spread.
Looking ahead to the matchup against Purdue, the Wildcats have a better chance at covering the spread, with it being a much smaller spread, but their opponent is not much easier. Look no further than here for all the analysis you need on your betting options for the game against Purdue.
To summarize the spread, it is how much the favorite is favored to win by. If a spread is -5, if the favored team wins by five or more they cover the spread. However if they win by four or less, or lose, the underdog covers the spread. As they say, good teams win but great teams cover.
The over/under, or as it is sometimes referred to as the total, is most often a bet regarding the total number of points. So if the over/under is 50 points, if the two teams combine for 51 points the over hit but if they combine for 49 the under hit. On the occasion the total is an exact 50, this is what is referred to as a push.
The moneyline requires you to simply pick a winner straight up. If the moneyline is +155, a bet of $100 on that team would get you your $100 back and see you win $155 as well. For odds of -155, you would have to bet $155 just to win $100.
Northwestern vs. Purdue Analysis:
Odds courtesy of SI Sportsbook.
Spread: Northwestern +11
Last week the Wildcats were nearly four touchdown underdogs while this week they are nearly two touchdown underdogs against Purdue. With how Northwestern has played this season neither spread is unjustified and it wouldn't be surprising if Purdue had opened as bigger favorites. That being said, this week is an interesting matchup to predict in terms of the spread. Purdue's offensive strength, their passing game, could have a rough time on Saturday as the Northwestern pass defense is top three in the Big Ten. Ultimately, I do think Purdue will win this one but I would not be surprised if Northwestern keeps it within 11 in this one.
Moneyline: Northwestern +360/Purdue -500
Now normally I would say avoid the Northwestern moneyline at all costs as in most weeks, it is just asking to lose money. That may very well be the case again against Purdue, who could very well win this one. However, I wouldn't be that surprised if the Wildcats pulled out the upset win in this one. The Purdue offense loves to air it out which is the one thing the Northwestern offense has been good at stopping this season. If the Boilermakers can't get it going through the air they could struggle greatly as they boast the worst rushing attack in the Big Ten. I would personally still take the Purdue moneyline but the Northwestern line isn't that far off from being picked this week.
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I would hammer the under in this one as I fully expect it to be an ugly, low-scoring Big Ten game. The Northwestern offense is not going to light up the scoreboard on any given Saturday and the defense is capable of shutting down Purdue's only strength on offense. It would be a bit of a surprise if both offenses combine for over 48 points but if it does happen it would be the Purdue offense doing the heavy lifting as I find it hard to imagine the Northwestern offense putting up a bunch of points on any given Saturday.
Last Week's Picks:
Last week against Wisconsin, I was right about both the spread and the over/under. Yes, I know, it was hard for me to believe as well. For this week, I am going to take Purdue to win but I do think that Northwestern can keep it within 11. Realistically, I see the Boilermakers pulling it out by 10 while the Wildcats walk away covering the spread.
Season to date: 4-6
This week's pick: Purdue wins but Northwestern covers the spread.
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